东京讯——日本五大商社正为美国中期选举后全球能源、货币及对美投资出现新一轮波动做准备。民主党赢得国会两院控制权。
TOKYO -- Japan's largest trading houses are bracing for a new bout of volatility in global energy, currencies and investment in the U.S. after the Democratic Party won control of both houses of Congress.
日本五大商社高管对美国中期选举对其业务及全球经济的影响持不同评价。分析人士警告称，民主党控制立法机构可能导致与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策僵局，并给美国政治及其经济带来一段不确定时期。
Executives at Japan's five largest trading houses offered differing assessments on the impact the U.S. midterm elections will have on their businesses and the global economy, as analysts warned that Democrat control of the legislature could lead to policy gridlock with U.S. President Donald Trump and a period of uncertainty for American politics and the country's economy.
三菱商事社长中西胜宏周三在业绩发布会上表示，公司将“密切关注”中期选举后的局势发展，以评估其对政治、政策和外交的影响。
Katsuya Nakanishi, CEO of Mitsubishi Corp., said at an earnings news conference on Wednesday that the company will "closely monitor" developments after the midterms for their impact on politics, policy and foreign affairs.
有猜测称，特朗普将在选举后升级与伊朗的冲突。中西胜宏表示，“地缘政治局势……可能延长”中东地区的局势，以及通过霍尔木兹海峡的能源流动中断。
There has been speculation that Trump will escalate his conflict with Iran after the elections, and Nakanishi said that "geopolitical developments ... could prolong the situation" in the Middle East and the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
由知名投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦支持的五家日本贸易公司中，包括三菱商事在内的四家上调了截至2027年3月止财年的净利润预期，原因是商品价格上涨，部分归因于伊朗战争，以及日元走弱超出预期。
Four of the five Japanese trading companies backed by prominent investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, including Mitsubishi, raised their net profit outlooks for the year ending in March 2027, buoyed by higher commodity prices partly as a result of the Iran war, and weaker than expected yen.
中西胜宏表示，三菱商事部分业务“可能从有利的市场条件中受益，而其他[业务板块]购买燃料将面临负面影响”。
While some of Mitsubishi's businesses "may benefit from favorable market conditions, other [segments] that purchase fuel will face negative impacts," the CEO said.
他补充说：“因此，在评估本财年下半年和下一财年时，我们需要采取谨慎态度。”
"We therefore need to take a cautious approach as we assess the second half of this fiscal year and the next fiscal year," he added.
以市值计算最大的商社伊藤忠商事未上调盈利预测，首席运营官石井敬太引用了美国选举结果。
Itochu, the largest trading house by market capitalization, did not raise its earnings forecast, with Chief Operating Officer Keita Ishii citing the U.S. election results.
“下半财年存在诸多不确定性。美国大选的走向可能影响汇率和利率，也可能改变霍尔木兹海峡的局势，使前景难以预测，”他周三表示。
"There are many uncertainties in the second half [of the current fiscal year]. The direction of the U.S. elections could affect exchange rates and interest rates. It could also change the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, making the outlook difficult to predict," he said on Wednesday.
石井补充说，共和党掌握总统职位、民主党控制国会的分裂政治局面，将意味着“事情不会顺利进行”，可能导致与总统发生冲突，阻碍各项举措推进，并且“特朗普对此类事态发展的反应也可能引发相当大的动荡。”
Ishii added that a divided political situation, in which the Republican Party holds the presidency and the Democrats control Congress, will mean "things will not proceed smoothly" and could lead to a conflict with the president, prevent various initiatives from moving forward and "there could also be considerable turmoil as a result of Trump's reaction to such developments."
他补充说：“美国是全球经济的驱动力，这对我们来说是一个令人担忧的领域。”分析人士对中期选举结果也表达了类似担忧。
He added, "The U.S. is the driving force of the global economy, and this is an area of concern for us." Analysts have voiced similar concerns over the result of the midterm elections.
特朗普将面临“立法方面的重大阻力，很可能陷入政策僵局。虽然特朗普可以依靠行政命令推行政策，但这些命令的持久性较差，可能会受到立法者的挑战，”研究机构BMI首席经济学家塞德里克·切哈布在一份备忘录中表示。
Trump will face "significant resistance from a legislative perspective, and will likely face policy gridlock. While Trump can rely on executive orders to get policies passed, these are less durable and can be challenged by lawmakers," Cedric Chehab, chief economist at research agency BMI, said in a note.
在民主党州长候选人承诺停止数据中心建设并获胜的一个夜晚，“数据中心建设和人工智能投资的急剧放缓可能导致投资出现比预期更明显的放缓，从而拖累美国经济，”他补充说。但住友商事社长上野真吾表示，该公司将继续在美国投资。
On a night where Democratic gubernatorial candidates who pledged to stop the buildout of data centers were victorious, "a sharp slowdown in data center construction and AI investment could lead to a sharper than expected slowdown in investment, weighing on the U.S. economy," he added. But Shingo Ueno, CEO of Sumitomo Corp., said the company will continue to invest in America.
“美国目前是我们投资组合中最大的地域风险敞口。只要商业机会依然存在，我们打算继续在那里投资，”他周一在投票前表示。“虽然我们面临竞争环境，但鉴于美国需求的强劲，有很多机会可以把握未来美国的增长。”丸红社长大本正幸周三表示，其在美国的业务足够多元化，选举的影响“将是中性”，他也不认为华盛顿会因中期选举而出现重大政策变化。
"The U.S. currently represents the largest geographic exposure in our portfolio. As long as business opportunities remain available, we intend to continue making investments there," he said, speaking on Monday ahead of the voting. "While we face a competitive environment, there are numerous opportunities to capitalize on future U.S. growth, given the strength of U.S. demand." Masayuki Omoto, Marubeni's CEO, said on Wednesday that its businesses in the U.S. are diversified enough that the impact of the election "will be neutral" and that he did not see major policy changes in Washington as a result of the midterms.
三井物产社长堀健一也在周三表示，无论美国选举结果如何，商业环境都将“继续高度不确定”。“即使未来国会构成发生变化，虽然推出重大政策举措可能会更加困难，但也可能出现两党讨论，或者通过行政命令实施措施，”他说。
Kenichi Hori, CEO of Mitsui & Co., also speaking on Wednesday, said that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections, the business environment will "remain highly uncertain." "Even if the composition of Congress changes going forward, while it may become more difficult to enact major policy initiatives, there could also be bipartisan discussions, or measures could be implemented through executive order," he said.
“我们需要保持广泛的准备，并维持多种选择，以便应对持续的高波动性，”他补充道。
"We need to remain broadly prepared and maintain a wide range of options so that we can respond to continued high volatility," he added.