
民主党在周二的中期选举中,在国会竞选及其他选战中取得大胜,这是对唐纳德·特朗普总统的谴责,并可能在许多方面影响美国的能源与环境政策。
Big victories by Democrats in congressional races and beyond in midterm elections on Tuesday were a rebuke to President Donald Trump and will likely affect US energy and environment policy in many ways.
以下是民主党于1月掌控参众两院后,未来几个月可能涉及的一些议题。
Here are some of the issues that could be in play in the months ahead as Democrats take control of the Senate and House of Representatives in January.
国会中的民主党若团结一致,可采取若干行动减缓美国与伊朗的对抗,后者已导致柴油和汽油价格飙升。这些措施可能包括在拨款上附加条件,以敦促美国达成协议,保持伊朗与阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡水道畅通,以及推迟官员提名的确认。
Unified Democrats in Congress could take several actions to slow down the US war with Iran, which has led to soaring prices for diesel and gasoline. Those measures could include attaching conditions on spending to encourage the US to reach a deal to keep open the Strait of Hormuz waterway between Iran and Oman and holding back confirmations of officials.
研究机构Rystad Energy首席经济学家Claudio Galimberti表示:“如今两院均有能力通过决议、扣留战争资金并拖延提名确认,政府面临的政治缓冲期缩短,寻求霍尔木兹海峡协议的体制性压力增大。”
"With both chambers now capable of passing resolutions, holding back war funding and delaying confirmations, the administration faces a shorter political runway and greater institutional pressure to find a Hormuz deal," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, a research group.
美国立法者原希望今年通过一项被称为“许可法案”的全面两党立法,大幅缩短政府批准大型化石能源和可再生能源项目的期限。民主党获胜可能会增加环保团体的压力,这些团体认为该法案对石油和天然气行业让步过多,从而推动将该法案的审议推迟至明年。TD Cowen将该法案通过的前景从约40%下调至约25%。
US lawmakers had been hoping to pass sweeping bipartisan legislation known as the permitting bill this year that would sharply reduce deadlines the government has to approve massive fossil and renewable energy projects. The Democratic wins could increase pressure from environmental groups, who say the bill has too many concessions for oil and gas, to push consideration of the bill into next year. TD Cowen cut its outlook for the bill's success from about 40% to about 25%.
民主党议员届时将掌管国会委员会,可对特朗普政府的政策和议题发起调查,范围涵盖从美国与委内瑞拉的石油交易到与俄罗斯的柴油交易。民主党还可能调查,石油和天然气公司是否因时任候选人唐纳德·特朗普在2024年总统竞选期间向其索要10亿美元捐款,而获得了减税、补贴和环境法规放宽等回报。
Democratic lawmakers, who will now head congressional committees, could launch probes of Trump administration policies and issues, ranging from the US oil deals with Venezuela to a diesel deal with Russia. Democrats could also probe whether oil and gas companies were rewarded with tax breaks, subsidies and rollbacks of environmental regulations after then-candidate Donald Trump asked them for $1 billion in donations during the 2024 presidential campaign.
民主党和共和党参议员上个月呼吁特朗普在柴油问题上改弦更张,称政府未与国会协商。特朗普政府可能拒绝或延迟回应传票,但调查可能会拖慢政府的能源政策。
Democratic and Republican senators last month called on Trump to reverse course on the diesel issue, saying the administration failed to consult with Congress. The Trump administration could refuse or delay responses to subpoenas, but investigations could slow the administration's energy policy.
民主党大胜可能会让日本和韩国更有底气推迟承诺的数千亿美元对美投资。特朗普政府表示将支持的项目包括拟议中的阿拉斯加液化天然气项目,价值高达544亿美元,旨在将该州北部的天然气输送给国内和亚洲客户。政府还支持核电项目。
The Democratic sweep could embolden Japan and South Korea to delay committing hundreds of billions of dollars in US investments. Projects the Trump administration has said it will support include the proposed Alaska LNG project, worth up to $54.4 billion, to transport natural gas from the northern part of the state to domestic and Asian customers. The administration also has backed nuclear power projects.
“民主党似乎认为这些投资承诺是被强加给盟友的,”首尔西江大学经济学教授许允(Heo Yoon,音译)说。
"Democrats seem to perceive that the investment commitments were forced on allies," said Heo Yoon, an economics professor at Sogang University in Seoul.
上个月,首尔确认将投资223亿美元用于德克萨斯州的一个天然气项目,为人工智能数据中心供电,并投资1200亿美元在美国建设八座核反应堆。但这些协议没有约束力。
Last month Seoul confirmed that it would invest $22.3 billion in a Texas gas project to power AI data centers and $120 billion to build eight nuclear reactors in the US. But those agreements are not binding.
民主党抓住了两党对人工智能数据中心快速扩建的反对情绪以及选民对大型科技公司的愤怒。在全国范围内,34项旨在限制数据中心建设的投票倡议中,有33项获得了选民支持。一些当选的民主党人支持暂停或规范数据中心建设。现在出现更多监督和审查人工智能风险、更多保护公用事业费率支付者、以及更严格的能源消耗和污染报告要求的可能性增加了。
Democrats seized on bipartisan opposition to the rapid buildout of AI data centers and voter anger at Big Tech companies. Across the country, 33 of 34 ballot initiatives aiming to restrict data center construction won the backing of voters. Some victorious Democrats supported pauses or rules on data center construction. There is now an increased likelihood of more oversight and scrutiny of AI risks, more protections for utility ratepayers, and stricter reporting requirements for energy consumption and pollution.
一些业内倡导者看到一条可能的路径,无论是今年还是2027年,都有望延长或恢复特朗普2025年税收和支出法取消或逐步淘汰的风能和太阳能项目税收抵免。这项努力还可能包括延长清洁能源制造税收抵免。
Some industry advocates see a possible path, either this year or in 2027, to extending or reviving tax credits for wind and solar projects that were eliminated or phased out under Trump's 2025 tax and spending law. The effort could also include the extension of a clean energy manufacturing tax credit.
在佐治亚州,民主党人首次在31年里赢得了由五名委员组成的公共服务委员会的多数席位。这一进展预计将给监管公用事业的机构带来变化,正值数据中心投资大量涌入佐治亚州之际。该委员会将负责确定需要多少新发电、输电和电网基础设施,以及由谁承担费用。民主党人竞选时主张降低不断上涨的电费,并加强对公用事业投资计划的监管。
In Georgia, Democrats won a majority on the five-member Public Service Commission for the first time in 31 years. That development is expected to lead to changes for the regulator overseeing utilities at a time when data center investment has been pouring into Georgia. The commission will be responsible for determining how much new generation, transmission and grid infrastructure is needed and who pays for it. The Democrats campaigned to lower rising electricity bills and tighten oversight of utility investment plans.
民主党人乔恩·罗森塔尔是一名石油天然气工程师,赢得了由三名委员组成的得克萨斯州铁路委员会的一个空缺席位,该委员会负责监管该州的石油天然气行业。他是自1990年以来首位在该委员会任职的民主党人。尽管该委员会仍将由共和党占多数,但预计罗森塔尔将影响监管机构对得克萨斯州面临问题的应对,例如数据中心许可、电网可靠性以及遏制有毒石油天然气废水的处置。
Democrat Jon Rosenthal, an oil and gas engineer, won the open seat on the three-member Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state's oil and gas industry. He is the first Democrat to hold a seat on the commission since 1990. Though the commission will still have a Republican majority, Rosenthal is expected to influence the regulator's response to issues facing Texas, such as data center permitting, grid reliability and reining in the disposal of toxic oil and gas wastewater.