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民主党获胜后石油行业准备迎接可能的暴利税Oil Sector Girds for Possible Windfall Tax After Democrats Win

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埃克森美孚公司位于得克萨斯州贝敦的贝敦炼油厂。摄影师:安特拉尼克·塔维蒂安/彭博社The ExxonMobil Corp. Baytown refinery in Baytown, Texas. Photographer: Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg

石油行业正为民主党利用新获得的政治影响力、推动与唐纳德·特朗普总统达成协议并对飙升的原油价格征收暴利税做准备。

By Ari Natter and Jennifer A. Dlouhy The oil industry is bracing for Democrats to use their newfound political muscle to push for a deal with President Donald Trump and impose a windfall tax on surging crude prices.

民主党已经提出立法,要求公司为高昂的燃油价格向消费者提供补偿。据知情人士透露,石油行业高管及其在华盛顿的游说人士担心,在一场因选民对高价愤怒而决定胜负的选举后,该税种可能成为民主党与特朗普达成的更广泛协议的一部分。

Democrats already have proposed legislation to make companies compensate consumers for high fuel prices. Now oil industry executives — and their lobbyists in Washington — are concerned the tax could emerge as part of a broader agreement between Democrats and Trump following an election that hinged on voters’ anger over high prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

“这是一个合理的担忧,”共和党策略师迈克·麦肯纳说,他在特朗普首个任期内曾就能源问题向其提供建议。知情人士要求不具名,因为他们未获授权公开谈论此事。

“It’s a legitimate concern,” said Mike McKenna, a Republican strategist who advised Trump on energy issues during his first term. The people asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

特朗普并未明确呼吁征收暴利税,一名白宫官员表示,总统与民主党在暴利税问题上合作的想法未曾讨论过,称其为“无稽之谈”。总统甚至在最近的一次竞选集会上将石油利润视为美国的经济利益,称公司“因中东发生的事情而赚取数千亿美元”。尽管如此,特朗普也表现出了抨击石油巨头的意愿。例如,他在6月呼吁司法部调查它们是否存在哄抬物价行为。8月,在埃克森美孚和雪佛龙报告第二季度利润合计约260亿美元后,他批评这两家公司“赚太多钱了”。

Trump hasn’t called explicitly for a windfall tax, and a White House official said the idea of the president cooperating with Democrats on one hasn’t been discussed, calling it “baseless speculation.”The president even celebrated oil profits as an economic benefit for the US during a recent campaign rally, saying companies are “making hundreds of billions of dollars because of what’s happened in the Middle East.”Still, Trump has also shown a willingness to lash out at oil giants. For instance, he called on the Justice Department to investigate them for price gouging in June. He also criticized ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. in August for “making too much money” after they reported second-quarter profits that totaled about $26 billion.

“我不喜欢,”特朗普当时说。他敦促这些公司“把其中一部分钱还给公众”。总部位于华盛顿的研究和咨询公司Rapidan Energy Group周三表示,民主党控制国会后,有30%的几率通过石油暴利税或削减化石燃料税收优惠。Rapidan称,此举可能有助于为两党医疗保健方案提供资金。

“I don’t like it,” Trump said at the time. He urged the companies to “give some of that back to the public.”Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based research and consulting firm, said Wednesday there’s a 30% chance Democrats will pass an oil windfall tax or cut fossil-fuel tax breaks after taking control of Congress. The move could help pay for a bipartisan health care package, Rapidan said.

罗德岛州参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯和加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳于3月提出的这项立法,将在布伦特原油价格超过2025年平均价格(约每桶68美元)时,对石油公司征收季度税。税收收入将用于发放退税支票,以补偿消费者。

The legislation introduced in March by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Representative Ro Khanna of California would impose a quarterly tax on oil companies when Brent crude exceeds its average price in 2025, which was about $68 a barrel. The proceeds would fund rebate checks to compensate consumers.

加利福尼亚州民主党籍众议员贾里德·哈夫曼是该法案众议院版本的联合发起人之一,他表示,这将是其党明年控制国会后的优先事项。

Representative Jared Huffman, a California Democrat who co-sponsored the House version of the bill, said it will be a priority when his party takes control of Congress next year.

“我当然会为此推动,”即将出任众议院自然资源委员会主席的哈夫曼说。怀特豪斯和卡纳未立即回应置评请求。

“I’ll certainly push for that,” said Huffman, who is poised to lead the House Natural Resources Committee. Whitehouse and Khanna didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

ClearView Energy Partners分析师凯文·布克淡化了民主党与特朗普达成利润税协议的风险。

ClearView Energy Partners analyst Kevin Book downplayed the risk of Democrats striking a profit-tax deal with Trump.

“确实,一位处于‘遗产模式’的总统可能会与反对党达成协议,”布克在电子邮件中说。“但考虑到总统最近对行业盈利能力的赞扬,暴利税似乎不太可能排在他的优先清单前列。” 美国曾在1980年吉米·卡特总统任内对国内生产的石油征收暴利税,该税种维持了约八年。美国石油学会称,该举措筹集的资金少于预期,并导致国内石油产量下降。

“Yes, a president in legacy mode might strike a deal with the opposition,” Book said in an email. “But given the president’s recent celebration of industry profitability, windfall profits taxes seem unlikely to be at the top of his list.”The US imposed a windfall tax on domestically produced oil in 1980 under President Jimmy Carter, and it remained in effect for about eight years. The American Petroleum Institute said the effort raised less money than projected and led to lower domestic oil production.

“你不能通过增税来实现更大的能源安全,”美国石油学会发言人安德里亚·伍兹说。“暴利税不会降低消费者价格——它们会抑制加强供应、基础设施和更有韧性的能源系统所需的长期投资。” 与此同时,环保人士呼吁民主党推进这一想法。

“You can’t tax your way to greater energy security,” American Petroleum Institute spokeswoman Andrea Woods said. “Windfall profits taxes don’t lower prices for consumers — they discourage the long-term investment needed to strengthen supply, infrastructure and a more resilient energy system.”Environmentalists, meanwhile, are calling on Democrats to push ahead with the idea.

“国会必须通过暴利税,以阻止大规模财富转移,并确保在伊朗战争期间、靠工薪家庭的背部产生的超额利润返还给公众,”Oil Change International研究主任洛恩·斯托克曼说。

“Congress must pass a windfall profits tax to stop the massive transfer of wealth and ensure the extraordinary profits generated off the backs of working families during the Iran war are returned to the public,” said Lorne Stockman, research director at Oil Change International.

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