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高管称美国民主党获胜短期内不太可能缓解企业成本和关税困境US Democratic win unlikely to ease firms’ cost, tariff woes in near term, executives say

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美国民主党获胜短期内难缓解企业成本与关税困境,高管称法兰克福/东京/格但斯克 —— 全球企业于11月4日表示,民主党夺取美国国会控制权不太可能改变其近期前景,因为企业正在与更高的能源和原材料成本以及紧绷的美国消费者作斗争。不过,一些企业欢迎政治稳定的前景。

US Democratic win unlikely to ease firms’ cost, tariff woes in near term, executives say FRANKFURT/TOKYO/GDANSK – Global companies said on Nov 4 that Democrats’ capture of the United States Congress is unlikely to change their near-term outlook, as businesses struggle with higher costs of energy and raw materials and a stretched US consumer. Some, though, welcomed the prospect of political stability.

民主党夺取了参众两院控制权,在数代人以来首次于共和党大本营取得压倒性胜利,数千万选民对美国总统特朗普发出了严厉谴责。

Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, scoring sweeping victories in Republican strongholds for the first time in generations as tens of millions of voters delivered a scathing rebuke to US President Donald Trump.

但对于困扰全球企业的问题——从关税、能源价格到通胀和消费者信心——选举结果意味着什么,目前还为时过早。

But it is too early to know what the results mean for the issues roiling companies worldwide, from tariffs and energy prices to inflation and consumer confidence.

伊朗战争相关成本飙升,成为从食品饮料到消费电子和汽车等各行业企业的最新头疼问题,此前它们已在2025年应对特朗普对进口商品加征的关税。高昂的天然气和杂货账单是美国中期选举中选民关注的重大问题。

Soaring costs related to the Iran war are the latest headache for companies making everything from food and drink to consumer electronics and cars, after contending in 2025 with Trump’s tariffs on imported goods. High gas and grocery bills were big concerns among voters in the US midterm elections.

“作为一家在美国的企业,我们需要的是政治稳定和可靠的经济框架。凡是拥抱这一点的都欢迎,”德国汽车零部件供应商大陆集团首席财务官罗兰·韦尔茨巴赫说。

“What we need as a company in the US is political stability and a reliable economic framework. And everything which is embracing this is welcome,” said Roland Welzbacher, CFO of German car parts supplier Continental.

“这对我们和整体经济究竟意味着什么还有待观察,但它带来了稳定,这是好事。” 选举结果公布后,全球股市和美元上涨,尽管亚洲芯片股承压,因为投资者预计民主党控制的国会将对人工智能实施更严格的审查。

“What it really means for us and for the economy at large remains to be seen, but it brings stability, which is good.”Global stocks and the dollar rose after the results, although chip stocks in Asia came under pressure, as investors expect the Democratic-controlled Congress to apply more scrutiny to AI.

选举结果还可能对美国财政前景以及国防、医疗和银行等行业产生广泛影响。

The election outcome could also have broad implications for the US fiscal outlook as well as sectors such as defence, healthcare and banking.

白宫可能面临更大压力以避免贸易战。分析人士表示,白宫可能面临更大压力,以避免重回推高美国消费者成本的贸易战,但一些欧洲制造商预计,特朗普的高额进口关税不会立即带来多少实质性缓解。

White House could face greater pressure to avoid trade wars While analysts said the White House may face greater pressure to avoid a return to the trade wars that have raised costs for American consumers, some European manufacturers expect little immediate material relief from Trump’s hefty import tariffs.

德国机械协会VDMA北美贸易政策顾问安德鲁·阿代尔表示,本届政府主要通过无需国会批准的行政权力推进其关税议程,而这些权力仍然有效。

The administration largely pursued its tariff agenda through executive authorities that do not require congressional approval, and those powers remain in place, said Andrew Adair, trade policy adviser for North America at German machinery association VDMA.

他表示,国会可能会寻求撤销现有 tariffs,但此类立法将面临重大政治障碍,最终还可能被总统否决。

Congress could seek to roll back existing tariffs, but such legislation would face major political hurdles and could ultimately be vetoed by the President, he said.

他对路透社表示:“因此,我们不预计国家政治会在短期内直接影响商业环境。”

“We therefore do not anticipate national politics to directly impact business conditions over the short term,” he told Reuters.

日本贸易公司三井物产总裁兼首席执行官堀健一告诉媒体,他将密切关注美国在关税、关键矿产贸易和人工智能数据中心建设方面的政策,但他预计商业环境仍将“高度不确定”。三井物产在美国拥有可观的收入。

Kenichi Hori, president and chief executive of Japanese trading house Mitsui, which generates significant revenue in the US, told the media that he will be closely watching US policy on tariffs, critical minerals trade and AI data centre build-outs, but he expects the business environment to remain “highly uncertain”.

结果可能提振游客数量。这一结果可能改善美国在海外的形象,而这一形象已因特朗普在移民和贸易政策上的更强硬立场而受损,自他上任以来游客数量大幅下降。

Result could boost visitor numbers The result could improve the United States’ image abroad, which has been hurt by Trump’s tougher stance on immigration and trade policies, with visitor numbers dropping sharply since he took office.

法兰克福机场首席执行官斯特凡·舒尔特表示:“与关税相关的恼怒可能会减少,人们旅行的意愿可能会增强,这应该会对航空业产生相当积极的影响。但我不会高估这件事的重要性。”Annex Wealth Management首席经济策略师布莱恩·雅各布森是警告华盛顿将陷入僵局的人之一,他表示联邦资金将于12月11日耗尽,而特朗普已承诺要成为对抗民主党国会的“否决先生”。

“There might be less tariff-related irritation and a greater willingness to travel, which should have a rather positive impact on the aviation sector,” Fraport chief executive Stefan Schulte said. “But I wouldn’t overestimate the significance of this.”Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, was among those to warn of gridlock in Washington, saying that federal funding runs out on Dec 11 and that Trump has promised to become “Mr Veto” against a Democratic Congress.

他说:“分裂的政府意味着僵局,而僵局意味着纷扰:调查、否决、拨款截止期限,而且很可能还会再出现一两次甚至更多次政府停摆。”

“Divided government means gridlock, and gridlock means noise: investigations, vetoes, funding deadlines, and very likely another government shutdown or two, or more,” he said.

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