对于数百万在美国中期选举中投票的选民来说，有一个议题比其他所有议题都重要：经济。
For the millions who cast their ballots in the US midterm elections one issue ranked above all others: the economy.
那么，鉴于唐纳德·特朗普总统的任期还有两年，民主党令人震惊地同时拿下美国参议院和众议院，这对经济和经济政策意味着什么？市场反应：一切只关乎人工智能和数据中心吗？
So what does the Democrats' stunning capture of both the US Senate and House of Representatives mean for the economy and economic policy, given that President Donald Trump still has two years of his term to run? Market reaction: Is it all about AI and data centers?
最初的市场反应较为平淡，但呈负面趋势。全球股市小幅下跌，美元也随之走低。
Initial market reaction has been muted but trending negative. Global stocks fell slightly, while the dollar followed suit.
如今民主党在国会两院均占据舒适多数，而特朗普仍入主白宫，这可能导致华盛顿陷入僵局。特朗普已表示他将成为“否决先生”，意思是他将阻挠民主党推进的任何立法。
With Democrats now holding comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress and Trump still in the White House, it could lead to gridlock in Washington. Trump has already said he would become "Mr Veto," meaning he would block any legislation the Democrats advance.
凯投宏观首席北美经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗在一份报告中表示：“鉴于民主党在参议院仍缺乏足以终结冗长辩论的多数席位，且特朗普总统拥有否决立法权，民主党在中期选举中的获胜幅度对近期政策前景的改变并不太大。”
"The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and President Trump has veto power to block legislation," Stephen Brown, chief North America economist with Capital Economics, said in a note.
彼得森国际经济研究所非常驻高级研究员雅各布·芬克·柯克加德在结果出炉后对德国之声表示：“我认为我们将面对两年的彻底僵局。什么事都办不成。”然而，一些投资者似乎担心民主党可能强行推动监管，尤其是如果他们还在2028年赢得白宫的话。
"I think we are looking at two years of complete 100% gridlock," Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, nonresident senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told DW after the results came in. "Nothing will get done of any kind." However, some investors appear spooked that the Democrats could force through regulation, especially if they also win the White House in 2028.
美国绝大多数民众对数据中心——人工智能背后的关键基础设施——日益增长的反对，帮助许多民主党候选人赢得了胜利。
Rising opposition amongst large majorities of the US population to data centers— the key infrastructure behind AI — helped secure victories for many Democratic candidates.
民主党现在将控制美国国会。柯克加德同时是欧洲经济智库布鲁盖尔的资深研究员，他表示，投票结果显示了反对的广泛程度。即使民主党无法强制推行监管，他也认为地方层面的反对将加大数据中心建设的难度，这可能打击那些受益于人工智能热潮的大型科技公司的估值。
The Democrats will now control the US Congress Kirkegaard, who is also a senior fellow at Bruegel, a European economics think tank, says the vote showed the extent of that opposition Even if the Democrats can't force regulation, he thinks local opposition will make it harder for data centers to be built, which could hit the valuation of big tech firms that have benefitted from the AI boom.
“这次选举表明，人工智能快速、激进增长叙事的政治基础并不稳固，”他说。“这并不意味着它会停止或被定为非法，但增长叙事的动态已经发生了变化。”布朗指出，如果民主党在2028年赢得总统大选，他们将处于非常有利的位置来推行重大政策变革。“这包括可能对企业和高收入个人增税，以及可能推迟人工智能部署的监管措施，”他说。特朗普的关税政策呢？
"This election shows that the political underpinning of the rapid, aggressive AI growth story is shaky," he says. "It doesn't mean it's going to stop or be made illegal, but the dynamic of the growth story has shifted." Brown points out that if the Democrats were to win the presidency in 2028, they would be perfectly placed to make major policy changes. "That includes the potential for tax hikes on corporations and high-income individuals as well as regulation that could delay the AI rollout," he said. What about Trump's tariff policies?
根据皮尤研究中心10月初进行的民调，56%的美国人表示特朗普的关税政策将对国家产生主要是负面的影响，只有20%的人认为主要是正面的。
According to polling conducted in early October by the Pew Research Center 56% of Americans say Trump's tariff policies will have mostly negative impacts on the country, with only 20% saying mostly positive.
这种情绪显然推动了许多民主党人在中期选举中获胜，尤其是在关税产生了特别负面影响的州。这包括那些依赖出口的行业所在的州，如得克萨斯州、密歇根州、艾奥瓦州和伊利诺伊州——这些地方受到了反制关税的打击——以及与加拿大贸易量大的州。
That sentiment clearly drove many Democrats to victory in the midterms, particularly in states where tariffs have had a particularly negative impact. That includes those with sectors reliant on exports, such as Texas, Michigan, Iowa and Illinois, where counter-tariffs have hit and those that have high trade volumes with Canada.
然而，除非特朗普做出前所未有的让步——自他近50年前首次成为公众人物以来，他在意识形态上一直信奉关税——否则尚不清楚民主党如何能迫使总统的标志性经济政策发生实质性改变。
Yet barring an unprecedented climbdown from Trump —who has been ideologically wedded to tariffs since he first became a public figure almost 50 years ago— it's not clear how the Democrats can force substantial change to the president's signature economic policy.
“特朗普不会受到约束，”新加坡欣里奇基金会贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯今年早些时候对德国之声表示。“预计只要他还在椭圆形办公室，就会继续推行其贸易扰乱和关税政策。”关税一直是特朗普第二个任期的标志性经济政策。尽管美国宪法赋予国会征收和组织关税的权力，但多年来通过的多部法律赋予总统在援引某些条件（如国家安全或经济紧急状态）时实施关税的权力。
"Trump will not be moderated," Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, told DW earlier this year. "Expect him to continue his trade disruption and tariff policies for as long as he remains in the Oval Office." Tariffs have been the signature economic policy of Trump's second term While the US Constitution gives Congress the power to collect and organize tariffs, various laws passed over the years have given presidents power to implement tariffs when they cite certain conditions, such as national security or economic emergencies.
特朗普已经利用这些途径来推行其关税，并且尽管遭到一些法律上的谴责，他仍可以继续这样做。然而，尽管国会不一定能强行终止特朗普现有的关税，但它现在可以对这些关税采取进一步的法律行动，以防止更大规模的升级。伊朗战争和飙升的油价呢？
Trump has already used such avenues for his tariffs and can continue to do so, despite some legal rebukes. However, while Congress can't necessarily force an end to Trump's existing tariffs, it can now take further legal action against them to prevent greater escalation. What about the war in Iran and surging oil prices?
柯克高表示，尽管特朗普和民主党人显然不会结成共同阵线，但共和党惨败的规模可能迫使特朗普在政策制定上减少反复无常，从升级与加拿大的贸易战到他的伊朗政策。
Kirkegaard says that while Trump and the Democrats are clearly not going to make common cause, the scale of the Republicans ' defeat might force Trump to be less erratic in his policymaking, from escalating his trade war with Canada to his Iran policy.
特朗普在周二败选后表示，他将与民主党人“合作”，并在投票前对《金融时报》表示，他不太可能升级伊朗战争。
Trump said in the aftermath of Tuesday's defeats that he would "work with" the Democrats and told the Financial Times in the run-up to the vote that he was unlikely to escalate the war in Iran.
如果能与伊朗达成协议，飙升的能源价格——一个关键的选举议题——最终可能回落，帮助选民缓解生活成本方面的担忧。
Were a deal to be struck with Iran soaring energy prices — a pivotal election issue — could finally fall back, helping voters with their cost-of-living concerns.
“你必须与伊朗达成协议，你必须把汽油价格降下来，”柯克高说。“从政治角度来看，这是现在最重要的事情。”德意志银行外汇研究分析师乔治·萨拉维洛斯认为，市场在该领域开始变得更加乐观。“随着中东石油流动已大幅恢复，市场正在定价重新升级和能源供应中断的巨大迫近风险溢价，”他在一份报告中表示。民主党的大胜能否迫使特朗普在经济问题上坐到谈判桌前？
"You've got to get a deal with Iran and you've got to bring down gas prices," says Kirkegaard. "From a political point of view, that's the most important thing now." George Saravelos, an analyst with Deutsche Bank FX Research, thinks the markets are beginning to become more optimistic in that area. "With oil flows through the Middle East having materially recovered, the market is pricing a large imminent risk premium of re-escalation and energy supply disruption," he said in a note. Could Democrat dominance force Trump to the table on the economy?
尽管民主党取得了全面胜利，但特朗普仍在白宫任职这一事实，将使所有旨在迫使标志性经济政策与议题发生改变的努力变得复杂。然而，国会现在可以施加相当大的压力。
Despite the scale of the Democrats' victory across the board, the fact that Trump remains in the Oval Office will complicate all efforts to force a change to signature economic policies and issues. Yet Congress can now exert considerable pressure.
对选民来说另一个至关重要的问题是腐败，以及人们认为特朗普政府在执政期间存在腐败和中饱私囊的行为。
Another issue vital to voters was corruption and the belief that the Trump administration has engaged in corruption and personal enrichment while in office.
这引出了这样一种可能：由民主党控制的新一届国会发起法律调查，并可能再次推动弹劾特朗普，这或许会迫使总统在一些经济议题上做出让步，以确保自己的政治生存。
That raises the prospect of the new Democratic-controlled Congress launching legal investigations and potentially pursuing another impeachment of Trump, which could force the president to negotiate on some economic issues to secure his political survival.
“你能找到10到12名共和党参议员，在铺天盖地的腐败面前，愿意对弹劾条款投赞成票吗？我不会排除这种可能，”柯克加德说。“而一旦出现这种局面，特朗普或许会突然变得通融得多，比如放弃他的大部分关税。”然而，尽管选民明确否定了特朗普的经济政策，民主党新当选的参议员和众议员们在试图扭转这些政策时仍面临一场硬仗。美国中期选举：民主党大获全胜，对特朗普构成斥责
"Can you find 10 or 12 Republican senators who, in the face of overwhelming corruption, would be willing to vote for articles of impeachment? I wouldn't rule it out," says Kirkegaard. "And that's a scenario in which Trump might suddenly be much more accommodating to, for instance, abandoning most of his tariffs." Yet despite voters' clear rejection of Trump's economic policies, the Democratic Party's newly minted senators, congressmen and congresswomen face an uphill battle trying to reverse them. US midterms: Sweeping Democrat wins deliver rebuke to Trump