美国股市在民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利后出现剧烈波动，但华尔街策略师提醒投资者不要过度反应。他们表示，股市强劲的盈利轨迹保持不变，这应当支撑股价走向年底。但投资组合中的某些领域——如直接受益于数据中心的股票和国防股——其盈利前景可能随着民主党掌权而发生了一些变化。民主党控制了众议院，预计最终将获得至少250个席位。
Equity markets in the U.S. reacted with sharp moves after resounding victories by Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections, but Wall Street strategists cautioned investors to not overreact. The stock market's strong earnings trajectory remains unchanged, and that should support share prices into year-end, they said. But there are certain areas in your portfolio — like direct data center plays and defense stocks — whose earnings outlook may have shifted a bit with Democrats assuming power. Democrats secured control of the House, with the party expected to end up with at least 250 seats .
他们在参议院也翻转了足够多的席位，从而获得了国会上院的多数席位。还有一些不确定因素可能影响年底前的投资组合，包括特朗普总统升级伊朗战争以及一场拖延的债务上限斗争。让我们逐一分析。整体市场随着民主党在众议院和参议院均取得多数显而易见，股指期货在隔夜交易中最初抛售。到周三早盘，冷静的头脑占了上风，期货转为大幅上涨。
They also flipped enough seats in the Senate to gain a majority in the upper chamber of Congress. And there are some wild cards that could impact your portfolio into year-end, including President Donald Trump escalating the Iran war and a dragged-out fight on the debt ceiling. Let's break it down. Overall market Stock futures initially sold off overnight as a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate became apparent. By early morning Wednesday, cooler heads prevailed and futures flipped to strongly positive.
华尔街认为，部分波动可能还会持续一段时间——但对股市进行广泛、分散的押注应当继续获得回报。“民主党获胜可能推动近期波动，特别是在科技和其他对更严格监管审查敏感的领域，”瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克·海费莱写道，“然而，我们认为结果并未在足以证明立即进行战略性投资组合调整的程度上改变中期基本面前景。”
Wall Street believes some of this volatility could continue for a bit — but broad, diversified bets on the stock market should continue to pay off. "Democratic outcome could drive near-term volatility, particularly in tech and other areas sensitive to greater regulatory scrutiny," wrote Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer, "However, we do not think the result changes the medium-term fundamental outlook sufficiently to justify an immediate strategic shift in portfolios."
AI交易风险预计民主党将放缓数据中心建设，尤其是在得克萨斯州等关键州，民主党赢得了州长职位。“支持全面或有条件暂停建设的当选州长现在掌管着47吉瓦（GW）的规划数据中心产能，还有三场竞选结果尚未揭晓，”安联研究写道。
AI trade risk Democrats are expected to slow the data center buildout, especially in key states like Texas where it won the governorship. "Governors-elect who back a full or conditional moratorium now preside over 47 GW (gigawatts) of planned data-center capacity, with three races still uncalled," wrote Allianz Research.
“更慢且成本更高的建设将拖累增长和股票估值。” 周三，风险较高的标的如甲骨文和CoreWeave表现疲软，但为大规模建设买单的主要超大规模云服务商却迎来了反弹。微软、Alphabet和亚马逊均上涨约5%或更多。
"A slower and costlier buildout would weigh on both growth and equity valuations." Higher risk plays like Oracle and CoreWeave were weaker Wednesday, yet major hyperscalers that were paying for the big buildout saw a relief rally. Microsoft , Alphabet and Amazon were all up around 5% or more.
“考虑到还有许多其他州可以建设数据中心，且控制权变更更可能意味着监管而非数据中心活动的停止，源自得克萨斯州控制权变更的担忧被夸大了，”摩根大通交易员写道。“鉴于围绕AI交易的焦虑，我们尚不敢断言这标志着可以‘全仓回补’该主题的‘安全信号’，但这是又一个积极的步骤。”两个可能需要采取行动的领域国防股和可再生能源股是投资组合可能需要重新评估的两个领域。
"Fears emanating for a change in control in Texas were overblown given the multitude of other states where datacenters could be built and the likelihood that a change in control would mean regulation rather than a cessation of datacenter activity," wrote JPMorgan traders. "Given the anxiety around the AI trade, we are not yet comfortable saying that this marks the 'All Clear' to re-gross into the theme but it is another positive step." Two areas where action may be needed Defense stocks and renewable energy stocks were two areas where a reassessment could be needed for portfolios.
由于担心民主党控制的国会会限制开支并挫败特朗普的任何大型项目（如所谓的“金穹顶”计划），洛克希德·马丁和通用动力股价回落。雷神母公司RTX下跌3%。Wolfe Research表示，这些股票短期内可能继续下跌，但最终会像过去在艰难政治环境中那样反弹。
Shares of Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics were pulling back on fears a Democratic congress would limit spending and defeat any big Trump projects like the so-called Golden Dome. Raytheon-parent RTX was off by 3%. Wolfe Research said the stocks could trade lower in the short-term, but ultimately bounce like they have during past tough political climates.
与此同时，第一太阳能等可再生能源股上涨。Invesco Solar ETF飙升7%。“我们认为，鉴于更广泛的熟悉度和和解法案中的先前变更，税收抵免延期是民主党在谈判中最可能提出的要求，”瑞穗清洁能源分析师写道。“分裂政府以前也延长过抵免额度。”债务上限大选后，美国借贷上限将变得更加突出，尤其是民主党现在在谈判中拥有更多筹码。分析师今年早些时候预测，该国将于2027年某个时候突破其41.1万亿美元的债务上限，这意味着立法者必须提前提高或暂停上限以避免违约。
Meanwhile, First Solar and other renewables were gaining. The Invesco Solar ETF soared 7%. "We believe credit extensions are the likeliest Democratic ask in negotiations, given broader familiarity and prior changes in reconciliation bills," wrote clean energy analysts at Mizuho. "Divided governments have extended credits before." Debt ceiling The U.S. borrowing limit will gain more prominence following the election , especially as Democrats now hold more leverage in negotiations. Analysts earlier this year projected the country would breach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling at some point in 2027, meaning lawmakers would have to increase it or suspend it ahead of time to avoid a default.
汇丰银行美国经济学家瑞安·王写道：“分裂的政府将对即将到来的财政截止期限产生影响，例如债务上限，还可能使市场关注点转向监管和监督，其中围绕数据中心的规则是一个备受瞩目的问题。”他说：“联邦政府借款的债务上限需要在2027年解决，主要税收条款定于2028年底到期。中期选举之后，从明年起任何财政政策变化都必须在两党基础上达成一致。”
"Divided government will have implications for looming fiscal deadlines such as the debt limit and could also turn market focus to regulation and oversight, with rules around data centers a high-profile issue," HSBC U.S. economist Ryan Wang wrote. "The debt limit on federal government borrowing will need to be addressed in 2027, and major tax provisions are scheduled to expire at the end of 2028. After the midterms, any fiscal policy changes from next year onwards will need to be agreed upon on a bipartisan basis," he said.
安联首席投资官卢多维奇·苏布兰指出，尽管两党之间的谈判可能紧张，但“分裂的政府仍应能够找到妥协方案。”伊朗中期选举后的最后一个不确定因素是伊朗战争，因为中东紧张局势仍然高涨。本周早些时候，美国袭击了伊朗的格什姆岛，副总统JD·万斯表示，他对与伊朗达成“谈判解决方案”抱有希望。TS隆巴德经济学家史蒂文·布利茨写道：“就国会影响与伊朗战争的进程而言，伊拉克战争为总统与国会的关系提供了一些教训。”
Allianz CIO Ludovic Subran noted that while negotiations between the two parties could be tense, "a divided government should still find compromises." Iran The final wildcard following the midterms is the Iran war, as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. Earlier this week, the U.S. attacked Iran's Qeshm Island, as Vice President JD Vance said he was hopeful that a "negotiated settlement" with Iran could be reached. "In regard to Congress impacting the course of the war with Iran, the Iraq War offers some lessons on presidents and Congress," TS Lombard economist Steven Blitz wrote.
他说：“2006年，新当选的民主党控制的国会（共和党在众议院失去32个席位，在参议院失去6个席位，并失去两院的控制权）向乔治·W·布什总统提交了一项1240亿美元的伊拉克战争拨款法案，其中包含撤军时间表——他否决了该法案。”“大规模撤出作战部队并未在2021年发生（2011年曾有撤军，随后2014年为打击ISIS而逆转）。直到2026年9月，美国才完全撤出伊拉克（包括顾问等所有人员）。”
"In 2006, the newly elected Democratic-controlled Congress (Republicans lost 32 seats in the House, 6 in the Senate, and control of both houses) sent Pres. George W. Bush a $124bn Iraq War funding bill with a timetable for troop withdrawal – he vetoed the bill," he said. "The major withdrawal of combat troops did not occur in 2021 (there was a removal in 2011 and subsequent reversal in 2014 to fight ISIS). The US was not completely out of Iraq (advisors and all) until September 2026."
该公司的另一位策略师格蕾丝·范也指出，投资者不应“低估一位以加倍下注而闻名的总统，他乐于通过行政行动执政，并热衷于从外交政策中巩固自己的政治遗产（请关注北……）”。
Grace Fan, another strategist at the firm, also noted that investors shouldn't "underestimate a President famed for doubling down, happy to govern by executive action and keen to cement his legacy from foreign policy (keep an eye on N. Korea/Cuba, not just Iran/Russia/China) alongside trade/tariffs, immigration and AI."
韩国/古巴，而不仅仅是伊朗/俄罗斯/中国）以及贸易/关税、移民和人工智能。”石油市场最初的解读似乎是，特朗普将倾向于与伊朗谈判而非升级冲突，因为他认识到这是其政党政治受挫的一大原因。周三原油价格大幅下跌。
The initial take in the oil market appeared to be that Trump will favor negotiations with Iran over escalation, recognizing that it was a big cause of his party's political setback. Crude oil prices were down about big on Wednesday.