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国会山报

民主党中期选举大胜后股指期货飙升Stock futures soar after Democratic rout in midterms

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股指期货周三早盘大幅飙升,此前民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利。

Stock futures soared Wednesday morning, after Democrats’ resounding victory in the midterms.

道琼斯工业平均指数期货在开盘前上涨约1150点,较周二收盘时上涨逾2%。标普500指数期货和纳斯达克综合指数期货分别上涨逾90点和120点。

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up roughly 1,150 points before the opening bell, more than 2 percent higher than closing time Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite futures were up by more than 90 and 120 points, respectively.

截至上午晚些时候,道琼斯、标普500和纳斯达克期货分别上涨1416点、117点和290点。

As of the late morning, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were respectively up by 1,416 points, 117 points and 290 points.

民主党在周二的选举中夺回众议院、参议院和多个州长职位,打破了共和党对国会的控制,给特朗普总统造成政治打击。

Democrats flipped the House, Senate and multiple governor’s mansions in Tuesday’s elections, breaking up the GOP’s grip on Congress and dealing a political blow to President Trump.

“华尔街喜欢分裂政府,因为通常分裂政府什么也不做,而在特朗普政府最后两年的这一特定情况下,要做成任何实质性的事情将非常困难,”Westwood Capital执行主席Dan Alpert对《国会山报》表示。

“Wall Street loves divided government, because typically divided government doesn’t do anything, and it’s very much the case in this particular situation that it’s going to be very hard to do anything affirmative during the last two years of Trump’s administration,” Dan Alpert, the executive chairman at Westwood Capital, told The Hill.

嘉信理财金融研究中心首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders周三在嘉信理财网络上指出,选举的“决定性”性质让投资者能够“展望”经济未来的走向。

Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, argued Wednesday on Schwab Network the “decisive” nature of the election allowed investors to “look forward” at what’s in store for the economy.

全美各地的民主党候选人以可负担性问题为竞选重点,指责特朗普和共和党导致伊朗战争期间油价高企以及通胀持续不退。这一策略奏效了,据Decision Desk HQ统计,截至周三中午,民主党已赢得249个众议院席位和54个参议院席位。

Democrats across the map campaigned on affordability issues, blaming Trump and Republicans for high gas prices amid the Iran war and persistent inflation. That paid off, as Decision Desk HQ has called 249 House and 54 Senate seats for Democrats as of midday Wednesday.

选民也明确拒绝了数据中心建设的爆发式增长。据Redbud Consulting数据显示,在44项与数据中心相关的投票议题中,选民在37个案例中支持限制建设,另有6个案例中限制派处于领先。

Voters also soundly rejected the explosion in data center construction. Of the 44 data center-related measures on the issue, voters backed restricting construction in 37 instances, with the restrict position leading in six other cases, according to data from Redbud Consulting.

民主党人,如俄亥俄州当选参议员谢罗德·布朗和得克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨,在竞选中主张遏制人工智能建设热潮。投资者予以关注,截至周三上午晚些时候,英伟达和埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX等科技公司股价下跌。

Democrats, such as Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa in Texas, campaigned on reining in the AI buildout. Investors took notice, as shares of tech companies like Nvidia and Elon Musk’s SpaceX were down as of late Wednesday morning.

阿尔珀特指出:“人工智能行业显然从特朗普政府的放任政策中获益,而民主党控制的国会极不可能延续这种做法。”

“The AI industry has clearly benefited from a hands-off approach by the Trump administration, which is very unlikely to be continued by a Democratic Congress,” Alpert noted.

阿尔珀特认为,如果人工智能行业遭遇下届国会的“冲击”,股指期货的涨幅将会回吐。

If the AI industry experiences a “disruption” from the next Congress, the gains in stock futures will reverse, Alpert argued.

阿尔珀特表示他已做空市场,他对股指期货飙升评论道:“长话短说,这是一次短暂反弹。人们会因为分裂政府的论调而买入这波反弹,然后我们将拭目以待真实情况如何。”债券收益率在民主党大获全胜后也有所下跌。截至上午晚些时候,10年期和30年期美国国债收益率分别下跌了约4个和3个基点。

“Long story is it’s a pop,” Alpert, who noted he has shorted the market, said of stock futures surging. “People are going to buy into that pop because the divided government argument, and then we’re going to see what really happens.”Bond yields also dipped in the aftermath of Democrats’ resounding victories. The 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields were down by roughly 4 and 3 basis points as of the late morning, respectively.

今年以来债券收益率已有所上升,联邦政府债务攀升以及伊朗战争导致油价上涨引发了抛售。

The notes have climbed this year, as the federal government’s mounting debt and a rise in oil prices amid the Iran war led to a sell-off.

在竞选途中,民主党人誓言通过限制特朗普的关税权力、迫使其结束中东冲突以及应对不断上涨的医疗成本来降低物价。桑德斯认为,如果立法者能够降低成本,这种行动将传导至市场。

On the campaign trail, Democrats vowed to lower prices by restricting Trump’s tariff authorities, forcing him to wind down the Middle Eastern conflict and tackle rising healthcare costs. Sonders argued that if lawmakers are able bring down costs, such action will seep into the markets.

她说:“只要在降低生活成本方面取得成功——这是选民通常的归类方式,而我们将其归类为通胀及衡量通胀的各项指标……我认为这通常会被视为对经济和股票市场的利好。”

“To the extent that there is success in bringing the cost of living down, which is how constituents typically categorize, what we categorize as inflation and the various metrics measuring that … I think it would generally be seen as a positive for both the economy and the equity market,” she said.

不过阿尔珀特表示,特朗普可能在跛脚鸭会期期间使股指期货的“短暂反弹”脱轨。总统周二晚间告诉《政治》网的达莎·伯恩斯,他将“研究”战争的潜在后续步骤,该战争已进入第九个月。

Alpert said, though, that Trump could derail the stock futures’ “pop” during the lame-duck session. The president told Politico’s Dasha Burns on Tuesday night he will “take a look” at the potential next steps in the war, which is in its ninth month.

根据NBC新闻的出口民调,大约十分之六的选民认为,特朗普决定对伊斯兰共和国采取军事行动是错误的决定。

Roughly 6 in 10 voters said Trump made the wrong decision to take military action against the Islamic Republic, based on NBC News exit polling.

尽管选民因战争而谴责总统和共和党人,阿尔伯特指出,在下届国会召开之前,特朗普可能会“以没人能真正预料的方式彰显自己”。

Despite voters rebuking the president and Republicans over the war, Alpert noted Trump could “assert himself in ways that nobody can really anticipate” until the next Congress.

“石油,我认为,实际上很可能会相当快地自行解决,除非[特朗普]开始投掷炸弹,”Westwood Capital执行主席表示。

“Oil, I believe, will actually likely resolve itself fairly quickly unless [Trump] starts dropping bombs,” the Westwood Capital executive chairman said.

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