民主党在周二的美国中期选举中大获全胜。尽管该党对数据中心的反对立场一直令华尔街感到不安，但这实际上可能对人工智能交易是件好事。这听起来有悖直觉，但分析师和经济学家周三认为，对数据中心建设的政治阻力可能有助于以建设性的方式消解一个被广泛承认的市场泡沫——这一泡沫是人工智能相关投资在科技领域造成的。
Democrats won big on Tuesday in the U.S. midterm elections, and while the party's opposition to data centers has been spooking Wall Street, it may actually be a good thing for the artificial intelligence trade. It's counterintuitive, but analysts and economists were arguing on Wednesday that political pushback to the data center buildout may help to productively deflate what is widely acknowledged to be a market bubble in tech resulting from AI-related investment.
这可能使投资热潮在长期内更具可持续性，同时将其扩展到经济的其他领域，尽管这可能会给交易市场增添波动，并在中短期内助推市场下行。RSM美国首席经济学家约瑟夫·布鲁苏埃拉斯在周三的分析中表示：“人工智能投资放缓至更可持续的步伐是必要的。这符合人工智能交易本身的利益。”“所有泡沫中都存在错误投资、不当行为和失败案例。这轮繁荣将经历自己的破灭，而泡沫的缓慢消解显然符合更广泛、更可持续的人工智能交易的利。”
This could make the investment boom more sustainable in the longer term while broadening it out into other areas of the economy, even though it may add chop to the trading waters and contribute to a down-turn in the market over the short to medium term. "It is necessary that the investment in AI slow to a more sustainable pace. It is in the interest of the AI trade itself," RSM US chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said in a Wednesday analysis. "In all bubbles there is mal-investment, malfeasance, and failures. This boom will experience its bust and a slow deflation of the bubble is clearly in the interest of a broader and more sustainable AI trade."
周三市场松了一口气，所有主要股指均上涨。截至美东时间中午12点，标普500指数上涨2%；道指上涨约3%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.5%。值得注意的是，人工智能交易中的资本支出方周三获得了回报，因为建设障碍可能改善它们疲软的财务报表，并在建设所需金融资本日益稀缺之际提振现金流——正如英伟达CEO黄仁勋最近所观察到的那样。
Markets were breathing a sigh of relief on Wednesday with all the major indices up. The S & P 500 was up 2% as of 12:00 p.m. ET; the Dow was up about 3% and the Nasdaq Composite was ahead 1.5%. Notably, the capital spenders in the AI trade were being rewarded on Wednesday as hurdles to the buildout could improve their sagging financial statements and bolster cash flows at a time when finance capital for the buildout has been growing scarce, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently observed.
截至下午2点，超大规模云服务商Meta、谷歌、亚马逊和微软均上涨超过4%。AMZN 5D mountain 亚马逊5日走势图相反，这些资本支出的买方——尤其是电力公司——正遭受重创。GE Vernova下跌约10%，Constellation Energy下跌6%。
Hyperscalers Meta , Google , Amazon and Microsoft were all up more than 4% as of 2 p.m. AMZN 5D mountain Amazon 5 day Conversely, the buyers of that capital spend -- notably power companies -- are being hit hard. GE Vernova is down about 10% and Constellation Energy is down 6%.
与以往几乎所有与新技术相关的市场泡沫一样，资本过度投资几乎肯定是当前人工智能热潮的一个因素。经济学家认为，民主党人对数据中心扩张的制约可能有助于让泡沫泄出一些空气，而不是一针将其刺破。美国银行美国经济研究主管阿迪提亚·巴韦在周三的一份报告中表示：“建设速度放缓并不完全是坏事。自去年年初以来，与人工智能相关的资本支出类别实际年化增长率为26%。这种前置的资本支出浪潮是过度投资的征兆。这意味着我们未来面临更大的硬着陆风险。”
Like almost all previous market bubbles related to new technologies, over-investment of capital is almost certainly a factor in the current AI boom. Economists think the check on data center expansion from Democrats could help to let some air out of the bubble without popping it with a single prick. "A slower buildout isn't entirely a bad thing," Aditya Bhave, head of U.S. economics research at Bank of America, said in a Wednesday note. "The AI-related categories of capex have been growing at a 26% annualized pace in real terms since the beginning of last year. Such a front-loaded capex wave is symptomatic of over-investment.
他还表示，“在齿轮中加一点沙子，实际上可能在中长期有利于市场和经济。目前尚无定论。”放缓建设还可能以具有潜在稳定作用的方式将投资推向经济的其他领域。布鲁苏埃拉斯表示，这可能“导致资本重新平衡并转向实体经济”。周三，人工智能交易并非所有板块都表现良好。财务脆弱的、专注人工智能的新型云服务商遭受重创，CoreWeave下跌约9%，Nebius下跌6%，IREN下跌11%。
It means we face a greater risk of a hard landing down the line." He added that "adding a bit of sand in the gears might actually benefit markets and the economy in the medium term. The jury's still out." Slowing the buildout could also push investment into other areas of the economy in a potentially stabilizing way. Brusuelas said it could "result in a rebalancing and redirection of capital into the real economy." Not all sectors of the AI trade were doing well on Wednesday. The financially fragile, AI-dedicated neoclouds were getting hit hard, with CoreWeave down about 9%, Nebius down 6%, and IREN down 11%.
研究公司Gartner在10月预测，由于消费者和企业层面的人工智能收入不足，到2030年底，80%的新型云服务商可能停止独立运营，这意味着一些投资缺乏可盈利的回报。喜达屋资本的巴里·斯特恩利希特周二提出了类似观点，称一些新型云服务商可能会倒闭。CoreWeave的信用违约互换——一种对其债券的风险保险——周三上午略有扩大，5年期上升了3.5%。
Research firm Gartner predicted in October that 80% of neoclouds could cease independent operations by the end of 2030 due to insufficient AI revenues at the consumer and enterprise level, translating to a dearth of profitable returns for some investments. Starwood Capital's Barry Sternlicht made a similar point on Tuesday, saying that some neoclouds could fail. Credit defaults swaps on CoreWeave – a form of risk insurance on their bonds – widened a bit on Wednesday morning, with the 5-year rising by 3.5%.
据Evercore称，人工智能交易领域的公司仍然渴求资本，超大规模企业、设备供应商和算法公司在过去两周内寻求数千亿美元的资金。
Companies across the AI trade are still hungry for capital with hyperscalers, equipment providers, and algorithm companies seeking hundreds of billions over the past two weeks, according to Evercore.
他们希望这笔钱能迅速到位，而政治障碍可能会使资金难以得到高效利用。Evercore的朱利安·伊曼纽尔在周三的一份报告中表示：“活动的速度和规模使资本成本和融资能力成为关注焦点。尽管强劲的超额认购表明资本仍然可用，但借贷成本上升、股权稀释担忧以及对结构性融资的依赖已对该板块构成压力。”尽管华尔街分析师和主要股指在周三释放出鼓舞信号，但据22V Research称，AI交易的总体环境仍然“具有挑战性”。
They want this money quickly and political roadblocks could make it harder to put it to efficient use. "The pace and scale of activity have put the cost of capital and funding capacity in focus," Julian Emanuel at Evercore said in a Wednesday note. "While strong oversubscription suggests capital remains available, rising borrowing costs, dilution concerns, and reliance on structured financing have weighed on the space." Even as Wall Street analysts and the big stock indices were signaling encouragement on Wednesday, the overall environment for the AI trade remains "challenging," according to 22V Research.
据富国银行称，得克萨斯州的情况尤其如此，该州占美国数据中心总吉瓦装机容量的27%，而新当选的下一任州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨（民主党）预计将比其前任格雷格·阿博特（共和党）对数据中心采取更强硬的立场。22V的道文·彼得森在周三的一份报告中表示：“尽管宏观指标显示多个州正走向数据中心暂停建设，但得克萨斯州建设规模的庞大以及新州长带来的可能额外数月的延误和不确定性，将成为与该州相关的股票的关键关注点。在更高层面上，AI的故事将继续向前推进——而从当前水平来看，今天的反应以及 compartmentalize（区分对待）的能力将很能说明问题。”
This is especially true in Texas, which has 27% of the total U.S. data center gigawattage, according to Wells Fargo, and whose newly elected next governor Gina Hinojosa (D) is expected to be tougher on data centers than her predecessor Greg Abbott (R). "While the macro indicator is multiple states moving towards data center pauses, the size of the buildout in Texas and the likely additional months of delays and uncertainty around the new governor will be a key focus for stocks tied to the state," Dauvin Peterson at 22V said in a Wednesday note. "At a higher level, the AI story will move forward – and from current levels, today's reaction and capability to compartmentalize will be telling."