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华尔街担忧民主党大胜后AI热潮面临风险Wall Street Sees Risks to AI Boom After the Democratic Sweep

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股市因民主党横扫国会而上涨,这有望对唐纳德·特朗普总统形成重大制约,但市场的一个关键板块却被排除在外。

While stocks rallied as the Democratic sweep of Congress promises to exert a significant restraint on President Donald Trump, one key corner of the market was left out.

一些建设为人工智能繁荣提供动力的数据中心的公司——特朗普已拥抱这一趋势——在周三回落,此前得克萨斯州及其他地方的候选人利用了人们的担忧,即其突飞猛进的增长正在推高电费,并威胁要将高薪工作自动化。

Some of the companies building the data centers that are powering the AI boom — which Trump has embraced — pulled back after candidates in Texas and elsewhere tapped into worries that its breakneck growth is pushing up power bills and threatening to automate high-paying jobs.

数据中心公司 CoreWeave Inc.、Iren Ltd 和 Nebius Group NV 的股价周三均下跌,与 AI 交易紧密相关的电力设备公司 GE Vernova Inc. 和 Vertiv Holdings Co. 亦然。芯片制造商如 Nvidia Corp. 和 Marvell Technology Inc. 也下跌了,即使以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数——一个主要的科技基准——上涨了 1% 以上。

Shares of data-center companies CoreWeave Inc., Iren Ltd and Nebius Group NV all fell on Wednesday, as did power equipment companies closely linked to the AI trade like GE Vernova Inc. and Vertiv Holdings Co. Chipmakers like Nvidia Corp. and Marvell Technology Inc. also dropped even as the Nasdaq 100 Index — a major tech benchmark — climbed over 1%.

撇开政治因素不谈,投资者早已担心所有债务驱动的 AI 投资支出的可持续性,华尔街的反应颇为微妙。大多数分析师怀疑这不会在长期内使该技术的发展脱轨,但可能会给其增长速度踩踩刹车。以下是华尔街各路投资者和策略师的观点:Natixis Investment Managers全球市场策略主管Mabrouk Chetouane:“依我看,民主党不会为了赢得这场竞选而在AI问题上挑战已实施的政策。因为中美之间在技术方面现在存在激烈竞争。”

Politics aside, investors were already worried about the sustainability of all the debt-fueled AI investment spending and the reaction on Wall Street was nuanced. Most analysts doubted it would derail the development of the technology over the longer term but may tap the brakes on the pace of its growth. Here’s what investors and strategists across Wall Street are saying: Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Managers“The Democrats will not in my opinion challenge what has already been implemented to win this race when it comes to AI. Because there is now a big competition between China and the US when it comes to technology.”

RBC Capital Markets美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina:“关于数据中心的一些问题表明,对监管的担忧应当消退,但另一些问题则表明这些担忧应继续受到关注。无论国会在这一问题上采取何种行动,风险依然来自州长选举结果,因为AI/数据中心是那些势均力敌的竞选中的首要议题。”“鉴于美国股市迄今在大选期间缺乏惯常的动荡,我们仍难以支持大选将成为市场重大清算事件这一观点。”

Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets“Some of the questions on data centers suggested concerns about regulation should be faded, but others suggested they should remain in the spotlight. Regardless of what does or does not happen with Congress on this issue, risk does remain from the governors’ results as AI/data centers was a top issue in the close campaigns for those seats.”“We still struggle to support the idea that the election will be a major clearing event for markets, however, given the absence of the usual turbulence in the US equity market around the election so far.”

Truist Advisory Services首席投资官兼首席市场策略师Kieth Lerner:“这确实增加了对前进路径、或许还有前进节奏的不确定性,但我们最终仍认为数据中心建设将继续。边际上节奏可能会变,但我们最终认为算力需求巨大,数据中心应对方式可能会有所改变,意味着税收激励或许会变,真正投票反对建设的县或许不得不迁移、另觅他处。它们可能不得不寻找其他替代方案。但我们认为最终——很像页岩气开采——我们仍预期会看到建设热潮。”

“这可能只是会以一些不同的让步、一些护栏来完成,而且护栏会比我们以前拥有的更多。”

Kieth Lerner, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist at Truist Advisory Services“This does add uncertainty about the path forward and maybe the pace forward, but ultimately we still think that the data center build-out will continue. Maybe the pace changes on the margin, but we ultimately think there’s huge demand for compute and that there may be some changes in how the data centers have to approach this, meaning maybe some of the tax incentives change, maybe some of the counties that really voted against this, maybe they have to move, go somewhere else. They might have to find other alternatives. But we think ultimately — much like fracking — we still expect that we see a buildout. It just may be done with some different concessions, with some guardrails, more guardrails than we had before.”

Wealthspire首席投资官布拉德·朗(Brad Long)表示:“全国各州的共和党人或民主党人,不仅仅是得克萨斯州,都在关注一个历史上对共和党友好、且州长大体上很有作为的州,看到它因数据中心是一个不受欢迎的立场而被推翻。我认为政客们如果有什么爱好,那就是在考虑政策之前先想着连任。因此,无论共和党还是民主党,越来越多的人可能会跳上这辆顺风车,用‘保护本州免受数据中心侵害’这种说法。显然这是一个受欢迎的叙事。”

“这当然不会改变数据中心将会被建设、需求巨大且积压订单很多的事实。问题将在于监管、时间和吞吐量。市场必须消化的是,不是数据中心会不会建,而是建在哪里、需要多长时间、会有多少繁文缛节?这显然不仅会推迟所有的资本支出,还会推迟从AI获益的吞吐量。”

Brad Long, Chief Investment Officer at Wealthspire“Republicans or Democrats sitting in any state around the country, not just Texas, look at a state that historically has been Republican friendly with a largely effective governor, seeing them overthrown on this basis that data centers are an unpopular position. I think politicians, if anything, love to get reelected before they think about policy. And so more and more, whether it be Republican or Democrat, are likely to jump on that bandwagon to air quotes protect their state from data centers. Obviously that is a popular narrative.”“It’s certainly not going to change the fact that data centers will be built out and there’s a lot of demand and there’s a lot of backlog. The question will be the regulation and the time and the throughput there. What markets are going to have to digest is, it’s not will data centers be built, but where and how long will it take and how much red tape will be there? Which obviously pushes further out not just all the capex spending, but the throughput on the benefit from AI.”

Miller Tabak + Co.首席市场策略师马特·马利(Matt Maley)表示。

Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

“AI浪潮面临的逆风正在变得稍大一些。这将让我们经历一些艰难的跋涉。因此,市场要看到中期选举年通常的年底反弹可能会难得多。”

“‘邻避效应’针对数据中心将立即成为2028年的议题,我认为2028年的竞选从今天就开始了。……共和党如果不赢得得克萨斯州,几乎不可能赢得总统大选或赢得选举人团投票。”

“The headwinds are getting a little bit bigger for the AI movement. That’s going to give us some tough sledding. So it may be a lot harder for the market to see the usual year-end rally in the midterm election years.”“The ‘not in my backyard’ with data centers is gonna be a 2028 issue immediately, and I think that the 2028 campaign starts today. ... It is all but impossible for the Republicans to win the presidency or win the Electoral College without winning Texas.”

野村控股公司跨资产策略师查理·麦克利戈特(Charlie McElligott)表示。

Charlie McElligott, Cross Asset Strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc.

“从叙事角度来看,我认为最初的‘半杯水乐观’式‘蓝色海啸’中期选举交易是基于以下理由——有些可能显而易见,有些则更为微妙:一种认为选举结果将导致美国数据中心建设被迫放缓的信念,进而平息了市场对超大规模数据中心运营商资本开支陷入‘无限竞赛’式‘囚徒困境’的担忧……从市场角度来看,这减轻了人们对信贷和股权融资规模、以及‘自由现金流燃烧’轨迹的融资担忧。”

“Narrative-wise, I think the initial ‘Glass Half-Full’ post ‘Blue Tsunami’ midterm Elections -trade is based upon the following rationalizations—some probably obvious, some more nuanced: A belief that the election results will lead to a forced moderation of US datacenter buildout, which then calms concerns around the Hyperscaler Capex race-to-infinity ‘prisoner’s dilemma’…Which from a markets-perspective reduces some of financing concerns around magnitude of credit and equities issuance, slows the “FCF burn” -trajectory fears.”

RWA Wealth Partners首席投资官JP Powers“确实有人担心这对AI建设、尤其是数据中心意味着什么,而这些股票因预期民主党获胜早已承压。但我认为这可能有点言过其实。这将给各州施加更大压力,但我不认为这会对现有项目造成太大影响。不过,如果这些公司不得不提供更多地方配套,或为了推进项目而在全方位应对更多监管,可能会导致生产成本上升。但我们仍然需要这些数据中心。”

JP Powers, Chief Investment Officer at RWA Wealth Partners“There’s definitely some fears about what this might mean for the AI build-out, especially on data centers, and those names have already been under pressure because of the expected Democratic victory. But I think it’s probably a little bit overblown. It’s going to put more onus on the states, but I don’t think that that will impact existing projects all that much. But it could result in higher cost of production if these companies have to provide maybe more local assistance or navigate more regulation across the board just to get some of these projects through. But we still need these data centers.”

Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick“你可以将其解读为对数据中心的否决票,但在某种程度上,建设数据中心的势头很强,涉及大量就业岗位。巨石已在滚下山坡,几位州长的当选和国会的变动无法完全阻挡这一势头。”

“市场一直在表达非常合理的担忧,即资金投入过于激进,借贷规模极其庞大。因此,或许这会将其放缓至更可控的水平,这对供应商不利,但可能实际上给行业施加了一点市场能够接受的财务纪律。”

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers“You could read this as a vote against data centers, but at some level there’s a lot of momentum toward building them, there’s a lot of jobs at stake. The boulder’s already rolling down the hill to some extent, so the election of a few governors and a change in Congress is not going to completely stop the momentum.”“The market’s been expressing very valid fears that the money is just being spent too aggressively and that the borrowing is so extreme. And so maybe this slows it down to something that’s a bit more manageable, which isn’t great for the suppliers, but may actually impose a little financial discipline on the industry that markets are okay with.”

Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir“这是一个警钟。”

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities“This is a wake up call. They have to really get out and make their case why communities should want data centers. I think in the end they will be successful, but it probably slows some of these projects down.”

他们必须真正走出去,说明为什么社区应该欢迎数据中心。我认为他们最终会成功,但这可能会拖慢其中一些项目的进度。”——摩根大通全球市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒“当选州长伊诺霍萨主张立即暂停得克萨斯州的数据中心建设,直到通过新法律建立防护机制为止。一种解读是,现有在建项目/许可将继续推进,而所有新建项目将被叫停,从而转移到其他州。另一种解读是,数据中心建设正在放缓,可能削减资本支出;这一主题在选举期间一直在发酵。”

“我们不会放弃科技股交易,并会押注战术性反弹,但我们可能会看到市场对科技/人工智能赢家和输家变得越来越挑剔。”

Andrew Tyler, Head of Global Market Intelligence at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Gov-elect Hinojosa favors an immediate moratorium on data center builds in Texas until new laws can be passed to establish guardrails. One interpretation is that existing builds / permits would be free to continue and all new construction would be halted and thus would move to other states. Another interpretation is that the datacenter build is slowing and likely reducing capex; this theme had been building into the election.”“We would not abandon the Tech trade and would play for a tactical rebound, but we may see the market become increasingly selective of Tech / AI winners and losers.”

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