对华尔街而言，今年选举日赌注最大的并非联邦层面，而是地方政府层面。
For Wall Street, the highest stakes in this year’s Election Day are at the lower levels of government.
投资者正密切关注周二的州级选举，因为其结果将关乎对人工智能基建至关重要的数据中心项目。虽然选民将决定明年哪个党派控制国会，但得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和佐治亚州的州长选举——以及将出现在选票上的数十项关于数据中心的地方公投——极有可能像国会控制权易手一样，颠覆人工智能交易乃至整个股市。
Investors are closely watching Tuesday’s state races for what their outcomes will mean for data-center projects crucial to the AI build-out. And while voters will determine which party controls Congress next year, it is the governor’s races in Texas, Ohio and Georgia—and the dozens of local referendums on data centers that will appear on ballots—that are just as likely to upend the AI trade and the stock market as a whole.
美国皇家银行资本市场分析师周一写道，州长们“处于人工智能/数据中心监管的最前线”。预测市场目前预期民主党将在佐治亚州和内华达州的州长选举中获胜，这两个州目前均由共和党人执政。
Governors are “on the front lines of AI/data center regulation,” RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote Monday. Prediction markets currently expect Democrats to win governor’s races in Georgia and Nevada, both of which are currently run by Republicans.
周一，投资银行杰富瑞举办了一场客户电话会，专门聚焦得克萨斯州的政治竞选及其对投资者的潜在影响。预计到2030年即将上线的美国数据中心产能中，约四分之一位于“孤星州”；杰富瑞预测，如果支持立即暂停数据中心建设的民主党州长提名人雷吉娜·伊诺霍萨意外获胜，可能会使133亿瓦已宣布的项目面临风险。
On Monday, the investment bank Jefferies hosted a client call focused solely on political races in Texas and how they might affect investors. Roughly a quarter of U.S. data-center capacity projected to come online by 2030 is in the Lone Star state, and an upset win from Regina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor who supports an immediate data-center moratorium, could put 13.3 gigawatts of announced projects at risk, the bank projects.
对数据中心建设的两党抵制是近几周让投资者对人工智能相关股票感到不安的因素之一，而州级政策的不确定性无助于公司说服投资者借出巨额资金为人工智能基建融资。在得克萨斯州，从甲骨文到私募资产管理公司蓝猫头鹰，再到土地所有者Crusoe，众多企业都深度参与人工智能基建。
Bipartisan pushback to data-center construction is one of several factors making investors nervous about AI-related stocks in recent weeks, and uncertainty over state policies isn’t helping companies persuade investors to lend them heaps of cash to finance the AI infrastructure build-out. In Texas, companies from Oracle to private-asset manager Blue Owl to land owner Crusoe are deeply involved in the AI build-out.
[audio] 尽管油价下跌，美股仍表现挣扎 科技股抛售延续至本周开盘，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.1%。对融资紧缩的担忧近期打击了 AI 板块交易，推动纳斯达克指数录得自 2025 年 3 月以来最差单月表现。标普 500 指数下跌 0.5%，而道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.4%，即 214 点。
[audio] U.S. Stocks Struggle Despite Falling Oil Prices The tech selloff continued to kick off the week, with the Nasdaq composite slumping 1.1%. Fears about a financing crunch have dinged the AI trade lately, pushing the Nasdaq to its worst month since March 2025. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%, or 214 points.
周一，甲骨文、英特尔和超威半导体等个股跻身标普 500 指数最大跌幅行列。苹果股价在盘中一度下跌近 2%，随后该 iPhone 制造商在周一收盘后公布营收略好于预期。财报发布后的盘后交易中，该股基本持平。
Stocks like Oracle, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices were among the S&P 500’s biggest losers Monday. Apple shares fell almost 2% before the iPhone-maker reported slightly better-than-expected revenue after Monday’s close. The stock was little changed in late trading immediately following the company’s report.
与此同时，企业暂缓了通过发行高收益债券筹集数十亿美元资金的计划。一位资深投资银行家表示，原因之一是：过去一个月里，他们的承销商一直建议他们暂缓发行，等待中期选举为监管前景带来更大的确定性。该银行家称，假设国家不全面否决数据中心，债券发行应会在年底前重新升温。一些分析师认为，针对数据中心的任何新限制主要只会导致建设在各州之间转移，而非整体上放缓建设步伐。
Meanwhile, companies are holding off plans to raise billions of dollars in higher-yield debt sales. One reason: For the past month, their bankers have been urging them to hold off until the midterm elections bring greater clarity to the regulatory outlook, a senior investment banker said. Assuming the nation doesn’t deliver a universal rebuke of data centers, the banker said, debt sales should pick up again before the end of the year. Some analysts argue that any new curbs on data centers will mostly shift development between states rather than slow the build-out overall.
摩根大通分析师周一在致客户报告中指出，威胁数据中心的联邦政策将难以实施，因为特朗普总统已表示不会签署任何限制 AI 扩张的法案，而民主党无法在国会两院同时取得足以推翻总统否决的多数席位。对投资者而言，僵局可能是一件好事。
Federal policies that threaten data centers will be difficult to implement, because President Trump has stated he won’t sign any bills limiting AI expansion and Democrats can’t achieve a veto-proof majority in both chambers of Congress, J.P. Morgan analysts told clients on Monday. For investors, gridlock can be a good thing.
“立法制约历史上伴随着更强劲的股市回报，” Glenmede 投资策略主管 Jason Pride 表示。他补充称，当没有单一政党同时控制白宫和国会时，标普 500 指数回报率平均为 7.7%。
“Legislative constraint has historically coincided with stronger equity-market returns,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy at Glenmede. He added that S&P 500 returns have averaged 7.7% when no single party controls the White House and Congress.
交易员正为短期内的波动做准备。据花旗集团美国股票交易策略主管斯图尔特·凯撒称，期权交易员正为标普500指数在11月4日（大选次日）出现约1%的涨跌幅做定位，这将是当月最大的单日波动。
Traders are bracing for volatility in the short run. Options traders are positioning for around a 1% swing—up or down—in the S&P 500 on Nov. 4, the day after the election, the largest single-day move of the month, according to Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citi.
大选引发了市场某些板块的对冲活动，涉及加密货币、人工智能相关股票以及标普500指数等主要指数。
The elections have sparked hedging in some corners of the market, including cryptocurrencies, AI-related stocks and major indexes such as the S&P 500.
派珀·桑德勒公司期权主管丹尼·基尔施表示，他注意到一些客户正在对冲其比特币押注，买入iShares比特币信托ETF等ETF的看跌期权。许多投资者认为，民主党若包揽众议院和参议院多数席位将利空加密货币，因为特朗普一直是加密货币的大力支持者。基尔施说：“大多数对冲都是针对民主党大获全胜的情况。”
Danny Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, said he’s noticed some clients hedging their bitcoin bets, buying put options in ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Many investors view a Democratic sweep of the House of Representatives and Senate as negative for cryptocurrencies, because Trump has been a big crypto supporter. “Most of the hedging is around a Democratic sweep,” Kirsch said.
基尔施计划在周二晚间8点左右之后继续值守，随着选举结果陆续出炉，随时准备接受客户针对标普500指数、VIX波动率指数等指数的期权订单。
Kirsch is planning ong on after around 8 p.m. on Tuesday night while the election results trickle in, ready to take options orders from clients on indexes like the S&P 500 and VIX volatility gauge.
除了股指期货和期权，预测市场在中期选举中也占据重要地位。2024年，预测市场交易员似乎准确预测了总统大选结果，且表现优于传统民调。今年，一些交易员计划在选举夜介入市场，紧盯交易屏幕，同时关注电视上各州陆续公布的结果。
In addition to stock futures and options, prediction markets loom large over the midterm elections. In 2024, prediction markets traders appeared to get the presidential election right, and called it better than traditional polls. This year, some traders plan on jumping into the market on election night, glued to their trading screens while the state-by-state results come in on television.
前职业扑克玩家兼体育博彩者谢恩·西格斯比已涉足预测市场，主要在他创立的Imawhale TX PM公司进行体育博彩。他将密切关注选举结果以及选举期间的交易活跃度。如果交易足够活跃，他将入场并寻求利用跨平台的价差获利。西格斯比说：“我可能会小试牛刀。”
Shane Sigsbee, a former poker pro and sports bettor who has waded into prediction markets, primarily bets on sports at Imawhale TX PM, the company he launched. He will be closely monitoring the election results, and how heavy trading around the election is. If they are active enough, he’ll enter and look to take advantage of price differences across venues. “I might dabble in it,” Sigsbee said.
一些新手投资者开始感到紧张。根据施瓦布近期发布的零售客户情绪报告，在接受调查的个人投资者中，约有 21% 表示，华盛顿的政治局势是他们目前最担心的问题，超过了对潜在 AI 泡沫甚至通胀的担忧。
Some rookie investors have been getting nervous. Around 21% of individual investors surveyed by Schwab for its recent retail client sentiment report said that the political landscape in D.C. is their top concern right now, surpassing worries about a potential AI bubble or even inflation.
尽管如此，许多围绕大选进行布局的投资者，最终还是让个人政治偏好影响了他们的投资组合，这可能是一场注定会输的赌注。
Still, many investors who position around the elections end up letting their personal political preferences taint their portfolios, which can be a losing wager.
那些在大选期间保持投资的人往往能获得回报。德意志银行股票策略师 Parag Thatte 研究了中期选举年标普 500 指数的第四季度表现。他发现，在过去 23 个此类区间中，有 21 个区间标普 500 指数录得涨幅，平均涨幅约为 7%。
Those who stay invested around the election are often rewarded. Parag Thatte, an equity strategist at Deutsche Bank, looked at fourth-quarter results for the S&P 500 in years with midterm elections. He found that in 21 of the past 23 stretches, the S&P 500 notched gains, averaging a roughly 7% rise.