德克萨斯州的州长和参议院竞选已成为人工智能产业的一个压力点，政治和金融分析师正在中期选举前密切关注。现任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特正在寻求第四个任期，面临民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨和自由意志党人帕特·迪克森的强劲挑战。在参议院竞选中，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科和共和党人肯·帕克斯顿势均力敌。
The gubernatorial and Senate races in Texas are a pressure point for the artificial intelligence trade that political and financial analysts are paying close attention to ahead of the midterm election. Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term and facing a tough challenge from Democrat Gina Hinojosa along with Libertarian Pat Dixon. In the Senate race, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are neck and neck .
数据中心是这些选举的核心议题，富国银行估计，全美27%的数据中心千兆瓦电力来自德克萨斯州。休斯顿大学的调查数据显示，超过80%的德州选民担心数据中心对供水和电价的影响。该调查误差范围为2.19%，于10月10日至14日进行，涵盖了2000名德州可能选民。阿博特也在9月暂停了数据中心的许可审批。“德州人必须优先考虑，”他说。
Data centers are at the heart of the elections, with Wells Fargo estimating that 27% of data center gigawatts come from Texas alone. Survey data out of the University of Houston shows more than 80% of Texas voters are worried about their impact on water supply and electricity prices. The survey, which has a margin of error of 2.19%, was conducted Oct. 10-14 and included 2,000 likely voters in Texas. Abbott also halted data-center permitting in September. "Texans must come first," he said.
视选举结果而定，这可能会给近期因融资和估值担忧加剧而陷入挣扎的人工智能交易带来更大压力。纳斯达克100指数本周跌入回调区间，较上月创下的纪录高位下跌了10%。
Depending on how the elections shake out, they could put even more pressure on an AI trade that has been floundering of late amid growing worries about financing and valuations. The Nasdaq-100 tumbled into correction territory this week, down 10% from a record set last month. .NDX 3M mountain NDX in correction territory "The worrisome outcome here would be that not only does Talarico win the U.S. Senate seat, but you have Gina Hinojosa defeating Abbott. That's where the magnitude for the negative implication on the AI trade matters," John Sonsalla, president at Washington Analysis, told CNBC.
“令人担忧的结果将是：塔拉里科不仅赢得美国参议员席位，而且伊诺霍萨击败阿博特。那就是对人工智能交易产生负面影响的幅度所在，”华盛顿分析公司总裁约翰·桑萨拉告诉CNBC。埃弗科尔ISI策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔做出了类似观察。“‘人工智能革命’的健康状况将受到德州州长竞选的影响，莎拉·比安奇指出，（共和党人）阿博特可能会解除数据中心暂停令，而（民主党人）伊诺霍萨预计将维持该暂停令，”他写道，指的是该银行的一份单独分析报告。
Julian Emanuel, strategist at Evercore ISI, made a similar observation. "The health of the 'AI Revolution' will be influenced by the TX Governor's Race, where Sarah Bianchi notes that [Republican] Abbott is likely to lift the Data Center Moratorium whereas [Democrat] Hinojosa is expected to maintain it," he wrote, referring to a separate analysis by the bank.
从长期来看，人工智能交易可能是一场过于重大的经济转变，单靠一次选举难以从根本上改变。但在较短的时间范围内，它更可能面临进一步的波动。过去几年中，该交易已经经历了多次上涨和下跌。由于对前沿模型盈利能力、资本支出、企业现金余额、较小云公司债务水平以及宏观经济因素的担忧打击投资者信心，该交易正在动荡。
Over the long term, the AI trade may be too big of an economic shift to be fundamentally altered by one election. But over shorter time horizons, it's more likely to be subject to further volatility. It's already undergone up-legs and down-legs over the past few years. The trade is wobbling as concerns about frontier model profitability, capital expenditures, corporate cash balances, debt levels among smaller cloud companies and macroeconomic factors weigh on investor confidence.
费城半导体指数（SOX）过去一个月下跌约19%。全球X人工智能与科技ETF（AIQ）下跌约10%。除了对阿博特暂停令的不确定性之外，德克萨斯州的其他数据中心政策也悬而未决。据《德克萨斯论坛报》报道，塔拉里科提议取消某些税收补贴，同时提高劳工、环境和电网使用标准。但州和地方层面的重大民主党胜利确实可能给人工智能交易中的数据中心部分带来压力，在联邦层面，这可能对人工智能公司有利。
The PHLX Semiconductor index ( SOX ) is down about 19% over the past month. The Global X AI and Technology ETF ( AIQ ) is down about 10%. In addition to uncertainty around Abbott's moratorium, other data center policies are on the line in Texas. Talarico has proposed ending certain tax subsidies while amping standards on labor, the environment and electrical grid usage, according to The Texas Tribune . But while big Democratic wins at the state and local level could indeed pressure the data center component of the AI trade, it could be beneficial to AI companies at the federal level.
华盛顿分析公司的罗布·雷恩斯对CNBC表示，“试图保护行业并试图围堵或削弱中国竞争对手的努力可能会大幅增加，因为这将是民主党国会或参议院的重中之重。”分析人士还认为，特朗普总统是人工智能交易的盟友，预计他将利用立法否决权，反对任何可能从长远上阻碍技术投资的法律。TD考文的保罗·加兰特在周二给客户的备忘录中写道，“鉴于特朗普的科技政策（‘股市上涨！’），我们预计他将通过否决权扼杀任何对人工智能交易构成实质性风险的‘激进’人工智能模型安全法。考虑到这一现实，看看民主党是否会推动特朗普能够接受的人工智能安全法，还是推动旨在帮助他们在2028年赢得华盛顿全面控制的人工智能信息法案，将会很有趣。”
"Efforts to try to protect industry and to try to fence off [or] undercut Chinese competitors are likely to pick up considerably, because that will be a huge priority for a Democratic Congress or a Democratic Senate," Rob Rains at Washington Analysis told CNBC. Analysts also see President Trump as an ally to the AI trade who is expected to use his legislative veto power against any law that could hamstring technological investment in the long term. "Given Trump's tech policy ('Stock Market Up!'), we expect he would kill – via veto – any 'aggressive' AI model safety law that creates material risk to the AI trade. So considering that reality, it will be interesting to see whether Democrats pursue an AI safety law that Trump could live with or push through AI messaging bills aimed at helping them win all of Washington in 2028," Paul Gallant at TD Cowen wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.