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华尔街日报

华尔街在选举地震中的赢家与输家The Winners and Losers on Wall Street From the Election Earthquake

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周二,得克萨斯州奥斯汀举行的一场中期选举之夜活动上,得克萨斯州选民欢呼。(Jabin Botsford为《华尔街日报》拍摄)Texas voters cheer at a midterm election night event in Austin, Texas, on Tuesday. (Jabin Botsford for WSJ)

民主党大获全胜在华尔街引发了截然不同的反应,投资者们欢迎分裂政府的前景,与此同时,得克萨斯州和其他关键州的选举结果有可能颠覆今年一直推动市场上涨的人工智能交易。

The Democratic sweep is getting a split reaction on Wall Street, where investors are embracing the prospect of divided government even as results in Texas and other key states threatened to upend the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered markets all year.

投资者们对特朗普总统向新闻媒体表示将与民主党合作的言论表示欢迎。不过,当不同政党分别掌控白宫和国会时常出现的自然僵局,能让那些担心华盛顿挥霍无度的人感到宽慰。

President Trump’s remarks to news outlets that he will work with Democrats were welcomed by investors. Still, the natural gridlock that often occurs when different parties are in charge of the White House and Congress can reassure those worried about runaway spending in Washington.

“我认为股票投资者也在松一口气,因为总统将接受选举结果,”多家族办公室LNW的首席投资官Ron Albahary说。

“I also think equity investors are breathing some kind of relief that the president is going to accept the results,” said Ron Albahary, chief investment officer of multifamily office LNW.

虽然市场倾向于政治僵局,但Albahary并不排除跛脚鸭总统可能会寻求与国会民主党达成两党协议以修饰其政治遗产的可能性。

While markets tend to prefer political gridlock, Albahary isn’t counting out the possibility that a lame-duck president could look to cut bipartisan deals with Democrats in Congress to burnish his legacy.

“一个风险是,联邦层面的人工智能监管会限制人工智能的建设,”他说。

“One risk would be AI regulation reining in the AI build-out at the federal level,” he said.

已经,民主党在五个对数据中心开发至关重要的州的州长选举中获胜,现在威胁要减缓新建设的步伐。在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州及其他地方,关注点现在进一步转向这些项目对附近电力成本、用水量等方面的影响——而不再是人工智能超大规模运营商之间的军备竞赛,以及美中之间的竞争。

Already, Democratic wins in gubernatorial races in five states key to data-center development now threaten to slow the pace of new construction. In Texas, Ohio and elsewhere, the focus now shifts further toward what those projects mean for nearby power costs, water usage and more—and away from the arms race among AI’s hyperscalers, and between the U.S. and China.

“太空中的数据中心现在看起来相当有吸引力,”埃隆·马斯克在周三早些时候在他旗下的社交媒体平台X上发帖写道。到上午中段,马斯克旗下的火箭和人工智能公司SpaceX的股价已下跌逾4%。他的电动汽车公司特斯拉也下跌了。

“Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now,” Elon Musk wrote in an early Wednesday post on X, his social-media platform. By midmorning, shares of SpaceX, Musk’s rocketry and AI company, had slumped by more than 4%. Tesla, his electric-car company, also fell.

人工智能交易中一些更具投机性的股票,包括Coreweave,也下跌了,电力生产商如NRG Energy以及建设热潮的其他供应商股价也下跌。英伟达股价下跌。

Some of the AI trade’s more-speculative stocks, including Coreweave, also fell, as did power producers like NRG Energy and other suppliers for the construction boom. Nvidia traded in the red.

标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均高开逾1%。道琼斯工业平均指数飙升逾2%,即1100点。

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite each opened more than 1% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 2%, or 1100 points.

在德克萨斯州——预计到2030年美国约四分之一的数据中心产能将落户于此——民主党人雷吉娜·伊诺霍萨在州长选举中意外获胜,最引人注目。她呼吁立即暂停数据中心建设,直到立法者找到办法让社区在决策中拥有一席之地;在该州,从甲骨文到土地所有者Crusoe等公司都计划大规模开发。

In Texas, home to roughly a quarter of the U.S. data-center capacity that is expected to come online by 2030, an upset win by Democratic Regina Hinojosa for the governor’s office drew the most attention. She had called for an immediate moratorium for data centers until lawmakers find a way to give communities a seat at the table, in a state where companies ranging from Oracle to landowner Crusoe plan large-scale developments.

支持暂停数据中心建设的民主党人凯莎·兰斯·博特姆斯赢得佐治亚州州长选举。支持“有条件暂停”的艾米·阿克顿在俄亥俄州最高行政长官选举中获胜。俄亥俄州选民还在针对具体数据中心项目的地方公投中,连续否决了多项与AI产业相关的提案。

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a supporter of a data-center pause, won the Georgia governor’s race. Amy Acton, who backs a “conditional moratorium,” was declared the winner in Ohio’s top job. Voters in the Buckeye state also delivered a string of defeats to the AI trade in local referendums on specific data center projects there.

“无限基金”首席执行官鲍勃·埃利奥特表示:“在AI繁荣就是一切的世界里,其影响巨大。这次选举是对一个主要建立在预期增长不受限制基础上的行业的警钟。”更广泛地说,投资者以希望国会恢复其传统角色、制衡总统权力的心态开启了华盛顿的新时代。民主党大胜很可能会在特朗普剩余任期内阻碍主要立法行动,并增加白宫结束伊朗战争及与贸易伙伴争端的压力。

“In a world where the AI boom is everything, the implications are enormous,” said Bob Elliott, chief executive at Unlimited Funds. “The election is a warning call for an industry that has largely built on expectations of unchecked growth ahead.”More broadly, investors opened the new era in Washington with hopes Congress would revert to its traditional role as a check on presidential power. The Democrats’ sweep is likely to stymie major legislative actions for the remainder of Trump’s term and increase the pressure on the White House to end the war in Iran and its disputes with trading partners.

民主党人艾米·阿克顿在俄亥俄州哥伦布市庆祝赢得俄亥俄州州长竞选。(Brian Kaiser为《华尔街日报》拍摄)Democrat Amy Acton celebrates winning the Ohio governor’s race in Columbus, Ohio. (Brian Kaiser for WSJ)
选举日当天,俄亥俄州桑伯里的政治竞选标语牌。(Brian Kaiser为《华尔街日报》拍摄)Political yard signs in Sunbury, Ohio, on Election Day. (Brian Kaiser for WSJ)

国防承包商RTX、洛克希德·马丁和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼股价下跌。政府分裂可能使批准军费开支更加困难。

Defense contractors RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman fell. A divided government could make it harder to approve military spending.

特朗普仍拥有巨大权力,可通过重启针对德黑兰的军事行动以及对特定行业的关税政策冲击市场——尤其是在民主党人宣誓就职之前。“该政府的若干优先事项,包括贸易、移民、外交政策和放松管制,在很大程度上均可通过行政权力推进或施加影响,”格伦梅德分析师周二致函客户称。

Trump still has significant power to jolt markets through renewed military campaigns against Tehran and tariff policy on certain industries—especially before Democrats are sworn in. “Several of the administration’s priorities, including trade, immigration, foreign policy, and deregulation, can be pursued or influenced largely through executive authority,” Glenmede analysts told clients Tuesday.

政府债券收益率周三小幅下行,10年期美债收益率从前一交易日的4.95%降至4.92%。蓝色浪潮推高了预期将从民主党重掌大权中受益的各行业股价。

Government bonds yields ticked lower Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.92% from 4.95% a day earlier. The blue wave lifted shares across industries expected to benefit from Democrats’ return to power.

风机制造商维斯塔斯和诺德克斯、海上风电公司奥斯德,以及包括第一太阳能、OCI Holdings和SMA Solar在内的太阳能股票全线飙升,市场押注民主党浪潮将遏制特朗普政府打压可再生能源企业的政策。

Turbine makers Vestas and Nordex, offshore-wind company Orsted and solar-power names including First Solar, OCI Holdings and SMA Solar all jumped on hopes the Democratic wave will counter Trump administration policies that have battered renewable energy firms.

医疗保健板块亦获早盘提振。Centene、HCA Healthcare和Universal Health Services等个股早盘上涨。民主党控制的国会将拥有更大筹码,同特朗普总统达成协议,增加《平价医疗法案》支出。

Healthcare also received an early boost. Stocks such as Centene, HCA Healthcare and Universal Health rose in early trading. A Democratic Congress will have more leverage to strike a deal with President Trump to boost spending on Obamacare.

周二选举结果出炉后的一大输家:总统旗下社交媒体公司特朗普媒体科技集团,其股价常与其政治前途同步波动。股价周三开盘后大幅下挫,有望创下历史新低。

One big loser after Tuesday’s result: The president’s social-media firm, Trump Media, which has often traded in tandem with his political fortunes. Shares fell sharply after the open Wednesday, putting them on pace for an all-time low.

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