几个月来，投资者一直对人工智能支出盛宴面临的一长串风险感到担忧。本周，他们按下了恐慌按钮。
For months, investors have been worrying about a long list of risks to the gravy train of artificial intelligence spending. This week, they hit the panic button.
周二美国期中选举后，对人工智能交易最坏情况的担忧开始显现。在这次选举中，民主党赢得了参议院和众议院的多数席位，并夺取了全国各地州议会和州长官邸的控制权。许多获胜候选人都以反人工智能纲领竞选，这引发了数据中心开发可能在许多地方陷入停滞的可能性。
Fears of the worst-case scenario for the AI trade kicked in after the US midterm elections on Tuesday, in which Democrats secured majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives and won control of state houses and governor’s mansions across the country. Many of the winning candidates ran on anti-AI platforms, raising the possibility that the development of data centers could grind to a halt in many places.
这一认识促使交易员从周四开始争相逃离，抛售与数千亿美元预计人工智能支出相关的一切资产。费城半导体指数暴跌12%，而科技股权重较大的纳斯达克100指数下跌6.4%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发以来的最大单日跌幅。人工智能的样板企业英伟达公司领跌市场，暴跌超过9%，市值蒸发超过4400亿美元。
That realization sent traders racing for the exits starting on Thursday, dumping shares of everything tied to the hundreds of billions of dollars in projected AI spending. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index plunged 12% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6.4%, the biggest one-day drops for both since the Covid pandemic hit in March 2020. And AI poster child Nvidia Corp. led the market lower, tumbling more than 9% and losing more than $440 billion in market value.
持有芯片制造商英伟达和超威半导体公司以及字母表公司和亚马逊公司等主要人工智能支出企业股份的蔡斯投资顾问公司总裁彼得·图兹表示：“人们正在质疑数据中心供应商的增长假设，并在相当广泛的范围内撤资。很容易从选举结果联想到监管环境的不确定性增加，进而联想到这些公司的增长前景。”由于利率上升、为资助建设而筹集的债务水平提高，以及对数据中心发展的反对声音日益高涨，市场对人工智能支出的焦虑今年大部分时间一直在加剧。
“People are questioning the growth assumptions for data center suppliers and pulling back pretty broadly,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, whose fund owns shares in chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. as well as major AI spenders like Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. “It is easy to draw a line from the election results to increased uncertainty toward the regulatory environment, and from there to the growth outlook for these companies.”Anxieties about AI spending had been mounting for much of the year amid rising interest rates, higher levels of debt being raised to fund the build-out and an increasingly vocal backlash against data center development.
此类支出一直是标准普尔500指数上涨的关键，并使该基准指数免受高油价、高通胀以及伊朗战争风险等宏观经济问题的影响。
That spending has been key to the rise in the S&P 500 Index and has insulated the benchmark from macroeconomic problems, including high oil prices, elevated inflation and risks from the war in Iran.
当然，鉴于政府运转的齿轮往往移动缓慢，遏制数据中心发展和监管人工智能的努力将如何展开还有待观察。但抛售潮表明，牛市核心陷入困境的恐惧程度之深。
It remains to be seen how efforts to rein in data center development and regulate AI will play out, of course, considering how slowly the gears of government often move. But the selloff shows the level of fear that the heart of the bull market is in trouble.
铁人宏观经济学管理合伙人巴里·纳普表示：“感觉经济只在一台气缸上运转，而这台气缸不仅不像以前那样运转得那么快，而且由于选举原因，它甚至可能进一步放缓。我在这里什么都不会买。”瑞银集团策略师估计，2028年预计将在美国投入运营的计算能力中，近三分之一现在面临风险。其中大部分来自得克萨斯州计划建设的数据中心，在该州，誓言暂停新数据中心审批的吉娜·希诺霍萨击败了共和党人格雷格·阿博特，成为自1990年以来首位赢得该州州长竞选的民主党人。
“It feels like the economy is firing on one cylinder, and that cylinder is not only not pumping as fast as it used to, but it may even slow further due to the election,” said Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. “I’m not a buyer of anything right here.”Nearly one-third of computing power projected to come online in the US in 2028 is now at risk, according to estimates by strategists at UBS Group AG. A majority of that is from data centers planned in Texas, where Gina Hinojosa, who has vowed to halt new data center approvals, defeated Republican Greg Abbott to become the first Democrat to win a governor’s race in the state since 1990.
这些担忧正在促使人们重新评估人工智能交易的估值，这些估值本已承受压力。以作为人工智能投资最大受益者的英伟达为例。其未来12个月预计利润的市盈率为13倍，低于一年前的32倍以上。美国第二大最有价值芯片制造商博通公司的定价为预计收益的15倍，低于12月份创下的42倍的峰值。
Those concerns are prompting a rethink of the AI trade’s valuations, which were already under pressure. Take Nvidia, which has been the biggest beneficiary of AI investment. It’s trading at 13 times profits estimated over the next 12 months, down from more than 32 times a year ago. Broadcom Inc., the second-most valuable US chipmaker, is priced at 15 times estimated earnings, down from a peak of 42 times in December.
纳普说：“人们的表现就像数据中心是一个可以向未来推演多年的新局势。如果我们只再建设几年的数据中心，然后芯片的增长速度随着时间推移放缓，你应该为此付出什么价格？”在人工智能交易风险最高的领域，抛售尤其残酷。人工智能计算服务提供商核心维夫公司本周已暴跌20%，较2025年6月的高峰下跌超过75%，距离其2025年3月的首次公开募股价格仅差几美元。负债累累的新云服务提供商内比乌斯集团周四下跌15%，使其自6月高点以来的跌幅达到58%。
“People were acting like data centers were a new state of affairs that could be projected out years into the future,” Knapp said. “If we only build data centers for a couple more years, then chips go back to a slower pace of growth over time, what price should you pay for that?”The selloff has been particularly brutal in the riskiest corners of the AI trade. CoreWeave Inc., the provider of AI-computing services, has tumbled 20% this week, leaving it down more than 75% from a June 2025 peak and just a few dollars from its March 2025 initial public offering price. And debt-laden neocloud provider Nebius Group NV lost 15% on Thursday, bringing its decline from a June high to 58%.
更具挑战性的是，围绕人工智能及数据中心建设监管和监督的不确定性，让投资者对进场买入低迷股票保持警惕。
To make things even more challenging, uncertainty surrounding regulation and oversight of AI and the data center build-out has left investors wary of stepping in to buy the dip.
蔡斯投资顾问公司的图兹说：“很难说这种情况已经过头了，因为我们不知道监管前景会是什么样。这一走势似乎已经过头了，但在情况明朗之前我们不会买进。”数据中心发展放缓的一个积极方面是，亚马逊、字母表、微软公司和元平台公司等科技巨头将被迫遏制支出。这些公司在最近的财报发布后遭遇的抛售表明，投资者对超出运营现金流的资本支出的容忍度有多低。
“It is difficult to say that this has gotten excessive, since we don’t know what the regulatory outlook is going to look like,” Chase Investment Counsel’s Luz said. “It seems like the move has gotten overdone, but we would not be buyers until the situation clears up some.”One upside to a slowdown in data center development is tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. would be forced to curb their spending. Selloffs in those stocks following the companies’ recent earnings reports showed how intolerant investors are of capital spending that’s outstripping cash generated from operations.
这四家公司以及苹果公司的股价在周三飙升，总市值增加了8000多亿美元，随后在周四的大规模抛售中回吐了部分涨幅。
Those four companies, along with Apple Inc., saw their shares soar on Wednesday, adding more than $800 billion in combined market value, before giving up some of the gains on Thursday amid the broad selloff.
图兹说：“如果他们削减支出，也许他们就不需要借那么多钱，也许现金流会增加。但与此同时，也许增长会放缓。现在有太多的问题。”
“If they cut back on spending, maybe they don’t have to borrow as much, maybe cash flow rises,” Luz said. “But at the same time, maybe growth slows. There are so many questions right now.”