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科技股拖累,股市回吐中期选举后涨幅Stocks Erase Post-Midterm Elections Rally, Dragged Down by Tech

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由于投资者担忧人工智能建设浪潮的可持续性,标普500指数遭遇自2025年4月以来最严重的单日跌幅,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数进入回调区间。

The S&P 500 slumped to its worst daily decline since April 2025 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq entered correction territory, as investors fretted about the durability of the A.I. build-out.

民主党在中期选举中获胜,令加强监管的前景浮现,投资者对人工智能行业疲软的担忧重新抬头,股市遭遇近两年来最糟糕的一天。

Stocks had their worst day in nearly two years as investors’ concerns about weaknesses in the A.I. industry re-emerged after Democratic midterm victories raised the prospect of tighter regulation.

标普500指数周四下跌4.4%,创下该指数自2025年4月以来的最大跌幅,当时特朗普总统公布了全面的全球关税。

The S&P 500 fell 4.4 percent on Thursday, marking the most severe drop for the index since April 2025, when President Trump unveiled sweeping global tariffs.

以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌5.5%,使该指数进入回调区间——回调指从近期高点下跌10%或以上。作为行业基准的费城半导体指数暴跌逾12%。该指数自10月初以来已下跌超过30%,较6月峰值下跌近40%。

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.5 percent, putting the index into correction, defined as a drop of 10 percent or more from its recent peak. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a benchmark for the industry, tumbled over 12 percent. That index has fallen over 30 percent since the beginning of October and is almost 40 percent below its peak in June.

民主党赢得众议院和参议院多数席位后,市场周三最初一度上扬,因为华盛顿的政治僵局总体上受到投资者欢迎,它降低了针对企业的新法规和法律出台的可能性。

After the Democrats won majorities in the House and Senate, the market initially rallied on Wednesday, as gridlock in Washington has broadly been welcomed by investors because it reduces the likelihood of new rules and laws being imposed on businesses.

但到周四上午,对中期选举将开启人工智能行业加强审查时期的担忧,加剧了数周来一直萦绕市场的对科技公司支出失控和债务上升的恐惧。

But by Thursday morning, concerns about the midterms ushering in a period of heightened scrutiny of A.I. compounded the fears of runaway spending and rising debt at tech firms that had been swirling in the market for weeks.

一些分析师指出,民主党在一些正成为数据中心重要枢纽的州翻转了关键的州长席位,这可能对人工智能建设浪潮构成重大阻碍。

Some analysts noted that Democrats had flipped key governorships in states that are becoming important hubs for data centers, and that this could create a meaningful roadblock to the A.I. build-out.

跌势在当日逐步加速,席卷标普500指数的所有板块。在股市暴跌之际,被视为市场压力时期避险资产的10年期美国国债走高,这意味着其收益率下降,跌至4.83%,为9月以来的最低水平。

The declines gathered pace through the day, engulfing all sectors of the S&P 500. And as stocks tumbled, the 10-year Treasury note, seen as a haven during periods of market stress, rallied, meaning its yield fell, dropping to 4.83 percent, its lowest since September.

Cetera Financial Group首席投资官Gene Goldman表示,随着抛售在当天加速,抛售已变得“过度”。他预计市场将会反弹。

Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group, said the sell-off had become “exaggerated” as selling accelerated through the day. He predicted the market would recover.

“在牛市中出现回调,通常都是短暂的,”他说。“现在看起来很糟糕,但我们确实认为很快就会出现反弹。”周四的下跌重新点燃了此前在选举前夕暂停的抛售。该抛售在上周加剧,当时Meta和亚马逊等科技巨头公布了季度业绩,其中包括在人工智能方面的巨额支出计划,加剧了人们对这些投资能多快转化为利润增长的担忧。

“When you have a correction in a bull market they are typically short lived,” he said. “It’s ugly right now but we do think we will see a bounce back soon.”Thursday’s decline rekindled a sell-off that had paused in the immediate run-up to the election. That sell-off had intensified last week when tech giants like Meta and Amazon reported their quarterly results that included huge spending plans on A.I., amplifying concerns about how quickly these investments would result in increased profits.

周四,芯片制造商中出现了一些最大的跌幅。大型芯片制造商高通周四下跌9.5%,此前该公司下调了盈利预测,称芯片需求旺盛推高了其自身成本,涨价速度跟不上成本上涨。股价的剧烈波动反映了更广泛的担忧:为建设人工智能基础设施而引发的供应瓶颈可能会拖慢行业增长,这意味着投资者在人工智能投资上获利的时间将被推迟。

On Thursday, some of the biggest losses occurred among the chip makers. Qualcomm, a large chipmaker, sank 9.5 percent on Thursday after the company dialed down its earnings forecast; it said high demand for chips was raising its own costs faster than it has been able to raise prices. The sharp stock move reflected broader concerns that supply bottlenecks created by the rush to build A.I. infrastructure could slow the industry’s growth, which means slowing the time it takes for investors to realize profits on their A.I. bets.

另一家芯片制造商Arm Holdings在公布其人工智能业务收入不及预期后下跌13.1%。

Arm Holdings, another chipmaker, fell 13.1 percent after reporting underwhelming revenue from its push into A.I.

芯片行业领军企业英伟达下跌9.3%,使其股价今年以来转为负值。

Nvidia, a chip industry leader, dropped 9.3 percent, dragging its stock into negative territory for the year.

埃隆·马斯克旗下的特斯拉和SpaceX股价连续第二天大幅下跌。这两家公司由世界首富——也是共和党大额捐款人——掌管,自选举以来备受关注,可能面临调查和监管审查。

Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX fell sharply for a second day. The two companies are run by the world’s richest person — and Republican megadonor — and have come under particular focus after the elections with potential investigations and regulatory scrutiny in store.

一些大型“超大规模”公司的股票,如Alphabet和微软,周四的跌幅小于大盘。一些分析师认为,建设人工智能基础设施竞赛的放缓可能有利于这些大型、根基稳固的参与者,巩固其主导地位,并减缓给其业务带来压力的快速支出步伐。

The stocks of some of the large “hyperscalers,” like Alphabet and Microsoft, fell less on Thursday than the broader market. Some analysts suggested that a slowdown in the race to build A.I infrastructure could favor these large, entrenched players, securing their dominant position and slowing the rapid pace of spending that has put pressure on their businesses.

“潜在的逻辑是,较慢的建设步伐对支出方可能相对有利,而对接收方则未必如此,”Citadel Securities宏观策略主管Frank Flight表示。

“The underlying intuition is that a slower build out could be relatively favorable for those doing the spending, and potentially less so for those receiving it,” said Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities.

“在这个情境中,民主党人可能有点像酒吧里那个魁梧的保安,阻止一个外表好斗的顾客大打出手,给对方一个台阶下,避免一场他并不真正想打、内心深知是坏主意的架。”Fung先生说。分析师总体上对股市前景保持乐观,预计主要指数将在当前波动平息后反弹,尽管一些人预计震荡交易将持续到年底。

“The Democrats in this scenario,” Mr. Fung said, “might be a bit like the massive bouncer at a bar who keeps an outwardly belligerent customer from brawling, giving the customer a face-saving way to avoid a fight he didn’t really want and secretly knew was a bad idea.”Analysts broadly remained sanguine about the outlook for the stock market, expecting major indexes to rally once the current volatility subsides, though some expected choppy trading to continue through the end of the year.

许多人将科技股抛售视为资金从带领市场上涨的一些公司流出、流入将从技术采用中受益的下一批公司(如医疗保健公司和金融公司)的过程。

Many saw the tech sell-off as part of the move out of some of the companies that have led the market higher and into the next cohort of companies to benefit from the adoption of the technology, such as health care companies and financials.

许多人还指出,自第二次世界大战以来,标普500指数在每次中期选举后的12个月里都上涨过。该指数今年以来仍上涨7.4%。

Many also noted that the S&P 500 has risen over the 12 months after every midterm election since the Second World War. The index remains 7.4 percent higher for the year.

“这些股票中的一些估值变得太过火热,看到这种情况并不完全令人意外,”Regions Bank首席投资官Alan McKnight表示。

“The valuations in some of these names had just got so frothy, it’s not a complete surprise that we are seeing this,” said Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Bank.

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