Polls closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky on Tuesday, as Americans rendered their verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump’s turbulent second term.

Early results could offer clues on the outcome of the US midterm elections, which have been dominated by voter frustration over the high cost of living, including fuel prices that spiked after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran.

Both polling and historical trends favor Democrats to take a majority in the House of Representatives, while Senate control remains harder to predict. To be sure, elections have become harder to predict in the decade since Trump’s 2016 victory, when he defied polls to win the presidency.

Democrats have grown increasingly bullish as opinion polls show them holding an advantage. Republicans have been forced to spend time and money defending seats in typically red states including Kansas, Texas, Alaska and South Carolina.

If Democrats take even one chamber, it would mark a clear rebuke to the president and his party just two years after his dominant White House comeback. Trump pledged during the 2024 campaign to tackle inflation and keep the US out of overseas conflicts, and surveys show many of those who supported him in the last election have buyer’s remorse.

To take control of the House, Democrats need a net gain of just three seats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has projected a Democratic increase of between 15 and 25 House members.

In the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four Republican-held seats to win. It could take weeks to know the final result, given individual states’ rules around counting mail-in votes and longer tabulation times in states that use ranked-choice ballots.

US stocks edged higher Tuesday, with a rebound in artificial intelligence shares helping lift the S&P 500. The election has taken a back seat to the AI trade for much of Wall Street, though the outcome could have implications for sectors ranging from cryptocurrency to defense, which face the risk of changes in regulation and government spending.

A Republican loss would have tangible consequences for Trump’s final two years in the White House. The president has thus far enjoyed a supine Congress, which has confirmed his controversial cabinet nominees, passed his signature tax-cut legislation and largely refrained from curbing his tariff powers or military operations against Iran.

Should they return to power in Washington, Democrats have indicated they will investigate Trump and his allies, a possibility the president has railed against for months.

The president and Democrats would also be forced to work together on consequential fiscal matters, including government funding and lifting the debt ceiling.

If Republicans overperform, it could provide a political boost to Trump, similar to how then-President Joe Biden seized on Democrats’ better-than-expected results in the 2022 midterms to claim validation of his leadership. At the time, Democrats gained a Senate seat and lost fewer House seats than projected.

In the month before Election Day, Trump held more than a dozen rallies, mostly in Republican strongholds, pressing supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.

But with his approval rating at rock bottom, those appeals were seen as a mixed blessing to many candidates. Several Republicans expressed discomfort with Trump’s unusual closing message, which included riffs on his Washington renovation projects and Ohio Senator Jon Husted’s physique.

An October New York Times/Siena University poll found likely voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle a wide range of issues including the economy, foreign wars and immigration.

There are already legal challenges and more court fights are expected if the results of key races are close. The Justice Department has appealed a federal judge’s decision to throw out a lawsuit to preemptively stop Alaska from certifying the results of its Senate race if the Republican candidate loses narrowly.

The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid to force thousands of California ballots to be set aside over unproven claims they were cast by non-citizens. In a separate case, a US appeals court lifted a ruling barring the Justice Department from threatening state and local election officials with prosecution if they count disputed ballots.