分析人士表示，民主党在美国中期选举中的全面胜利，可能促使国会加强对贸易政策行使更大权威，并审视唐纳德·特朗普总统与中国达成的协议，不过华盛顿贸易政策出现剧烈转向的可能性不大。
The Democrats’ comprehensive victory in the US midterm elections could embolden Congress to assert greater authority over trade policy and scrutinise the deals President Donald Trump made with China, analysts say, though a dramatic shift in Washington’s trade policy is unlikely.
“国会，包括那些此前被吓住而退缩的支持自由贸易的共和党人，可能会倾向于重新主张国会在贸易方面的部分权威，”前美国贸易谈判代表斯蒂芬·奥尔森说。
“Congress, including pro-free trade Republicans who have been intimidated into standing down, might be inclined to reassert some degree of congressional authority on trade,” said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator.
奥尔森还兼任新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院的高级访问研究员。他补充说，由于特朗普仍对关税拥有广泛的行政裁量权，贸易政策出现重大转变的可能性不大。
As Trump retained broad executive discretion over tariffs, a major shift in trade policy was improbable, added Olson, who is also a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
“但在边缘层面，你可能会看到国会推动在影响其选民钱包的品类中争取更多关税豁免和例外，”他说。
“But on the margins, you might see Congress pushing for more tariff carve-outs and exceptions in categories that affect their constituents’ pocketbooks,” he said.
民主党在周三的选举中赢得众议院和参议院的控制权，这是自乔·拜登政府头两年以来，民主党首次在美国国会两院均占多数。
Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the elections on Wednesday, giving them a majority in both legislative chambers of the US Congress for the first time since the first two years of the Joe Biden administration.
共和党遭遇惨败之际，选民普遍对高昂的生活成本、伊朗战争以及与加拿大等传统盟友的贸易冲突感到不满。
The stinging defeats for the Republicans came amid broad voter frustration over the high cost of living, the war in Iran and trade conflicts with traditional allies such as Canada.
欣里奇基金会智库贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯同样指出，国会可能加强对贸易政策的行政监督，但鉴于总统拥有否决权，彻底变革不太可能。
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation think tank, similarly noted that Congress could step up administrative scrutiny over trade policy, though radical changes were unlikely given the president’s veto power.
“我认为我们会看到变化的地方，是针对贸易政策某些方面的调查和听证会的数量，”埃尔姆斯说，并指出议员们可能会质疑美国贸易代表办公室和商务部如何为关税提供理由，以及如何决定哪些公司获得豁免。
“Where I think we will see change is the volume of investigations and hearings into some aspects of trade policy,” Elms said, noting that lawmakers were likely to question how the US Trade Representative and Department of Commerce justified tariffs and decided which companies received exemptions.
但她警告说，华盛顿的对华鹰派——迄今为止特朗普基本上阻止了他们影响政策——可能会以更加怀疑的眼光看待中国。
But she cautioned that China hawks in Washington – which Trump had largely prevented from influencing policy up to this point – were likely to view China more sceptically.
在2025年经历了数月的针锋相对的关税上调、出口管制和威胁之后，华盛顿和北京今年在贸易关系上维持着脆弱的休战。
Washington and Beijing have maintained a fragile truce in their trading relationship this year following months of tit-for-tat tariff rises, export controls and threats in 2025.
中国国家主席习近平9月在美国与特朗普会面，双方同意采取温和措施，包括延长贸易休战，并成立一个贸易委员会来监督部分对等关税削减。
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Trump in the United States in September, where the two sides agreed to modest measures including extending the trade truce and launching a board of trade to oversee some reciprocal tariff reductions.
“虽然特朗普表现出强烈意愿，希望避免（与中国的）关系升级，但华盛顿的大部分人并不那么和解，”埃尔姆斯说。
“While Trump has shown strong interest in keeping the relationship [with China] from escalating, most of Washington is less conciliatory,” Elms said.
特朗普可能在中选后摆脱政治约束以及避免关税的需要——前美国贸易谈判代表斯蒂芬·奥尔森总部位于北京的美中关系专家陈凤英表示，选举结果不太可能意味着对华贸易关系发生重大变化。
Trump could emerge from the midterms unshackled by political constraints and the need to avoid tariffsStephen Olson, former US trade negotiator Chen Fengying, a Beijing-based expert on US-China relations, said the election results were unlikely to spell major changes in trade relations with China.
“我们绝不能寄希望于民主党人来缓和紧张局势或促进与中国的友谊，”陈凤英说，她认为，虽然民主党人避免了共和党人青睐的直接做法，但他们同样致力于遏制中国。
“We must not pin our hopes on the Democrats to ease tensions or foster friendship with China,” Chen said, arguing that while Democrats avoided the direct approach favoured by Republicans, they were equally committed to containing China.
“两个大国不可能完全避免摩擦，”陈凤英说。她补充说，即使中国与美国的贸易下降，其与其他国家快速增长的贸易也可以弥补。
“It is impossible for two major powers to avoid friction entirely,” Chen said. She added that even if China’s trade with the US declined, its rapidly growing trade with other countries could make up for it.
民主党在参议院的胜利得益于在艾奥瓦州和北卡罗来纳州等几个农业和工业州的翻转，这些州的农产品出口和制造业供应链承受了特朗普去年发动的贸易战的主要冲击。
The Democrats’ victory in the Senate was bolstered by flips in several agricultural and industrial states such as Iowa and North Carolina, where farm exports and manufacturing supply chains bore the brunt of the trade war launched by Trump last year.
陈凤英说，这些摇摆州是中国大量进口产品的关键来源地——例如飞机和大豆等农产品——中选结果可能为贸易流量的增加打开大门。
Chen said those swing states were key sources of products that China imported in large volumes – such as aircraft and agricultural products including soybeans – and the midterm results could open the door to an increase in trade flows.
但奥尔森指出，共和党在这些州的失利可能会让特朗普缺乏避免采取激进贸易行动的政治动机。
Olson, however, noted that the Republicans’ losses in these states could leave Trump with fewer political incentives to avoid aggressive trade actions.
他说：“中期选举后，特朗普可能会摆脱政治约束，也不再需要避免征收关税或采取其他可能损害共和党在关键州选举前景的贸易行动。”
“Trump could emerge from the midterms unshackled by political constraints and the need to avoid tariffs or other trade actions that could damage Republican electoral prospects in critical states,” he said.
奥尔森说：“在这种情况下，针对产能过剩的301条款关税可能很快就会出台，针对主要伙伴的新贸易行动也可能启动。这显然是个坏消息，尤其是在印太地区。”
“In that case, the section 301 tariffs on excess capacity could be forthcoming shortly and new trade actions against key partners could also be opened,” Olson said. “That obviously would be bad news, especially in the Indo-Pacific.”