
如果民主党在周二赢得国会控制权,特朗普的贸易议程将面临新的摩擦源,明年可能出现一连串的监督听证会和象征性的关税撤销投票,但贸易专家和国会助手表示,特朗普在推行更多关税行动的热情上将保持不变。
Donald Trump's trade agenda will face a new source of friction if Democrats win control of Congress on Tuesday, with a cascade of oversight hearings and symbolic tariff rollback votes likely next year, but Trump will remain undeterred in his zeal for more tariff actions, trade experts and congressional aides say.
民主党渴望通过立法来废除特朗普的许多关税及其背后那些陈旧的法规,但该党取得的任何进展都将撞上特朗普否决权的现实墙。
Democrats are eager to pass legislation to negate many of Trump's tariffs and the more archaic statutes backing them, but any gains by the party will run into the reality of Trump's veto power.
“最明显的优先事项之一将是废除特朗普对加拿大的关税,这些关税正在推高物价,并损害边境两侧的社区,”参议院财政委员会首席民主党议员、参议员罗恩·怀登表示。该委员会负责税收和贸易事务。
"One of the most obvious priorities would be repealing Trump’s tariffs on Canada, which are raising prices and harming communities on both sides of the border," said Senator Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the tax- and trade-focused Senate Finance Committee.
民主党需要在众议院和参议院各净增四个席位,才能推翻共和党微弱的218比214和53比47的多数优势。民意调查显示民主党有望赢得众议院,而参议院形势过于胶着难以预测,这使得民主党距离拥有推翻否决所需的三分之二多数仍相差甚远。
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities. Opinion polls favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains too close to call, leaving Democrats far short of a veto-proof two-thirds majority.
与此同时,特朗普政府正在制定计划,更多地依赖行政行动,包括在贸易方面,而无需国会批准。
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is developing plans to rely more heavily on executive actions, including on trade, without the need for congressional approval.
如果他们赢得至少一个议院的控制权,民主党人可以就长期搁置的贸易法案举行象征性投票,例如参议员查克·舒默的《终结特朗普关税税法案》,该法案将废除支持惩罚性对加拿大商品关税的法规依据——1930年关税法第338条,以及用于特朗普临时10%全球关税的法规依据——1974年贸易法第122条。
If they win at least one chamber, Democrats could stage symbolic votes on long-sidelined trade bills such as Senator Chuck Schumer's "End Trump's Tariff Tax Act," which would scrap the statute backing the punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, along with the statute used for Trump's temporary 10% global tariffs, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
该法案有28位联合提案人,包括怀登,还要求退还根据这些陈旧贸易法征收的所有关税。
The bill, with 28 co-sponsors including Wyden, also calls for refunding all duties collected under the archaic trade laws.
“民主党人会尝试很多事情。我只是认为什么也过不了关,因为无论哪种情况,两党都不会在任何一院拥有足以推翻总统否决的多数席位,”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)非常驻顾问威廉·莱因施(William Reinsch)表示。
"Democrats are going to try a lot of things. I just don't think anything's going to get across the finish line because neither party will have a veto-proof majority in any scenario," said William Reinsch, non-resident adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
但莱因施和其他贸易专家指出,掌握贸易委员会的主持权将为民主党提供一个平台,发起源源不断的监督听证会和调查,针对特朗普的贸易政策。
But gaining control of trade committee gavels would give Democrats a platform to launch a steady stream of oversight hearings and investigations into Trump's trade policies, Reinsch and other trade experts said.
重点监督目标将包括:揭开决定关税豁免、使特定公司受益这一不透明过程的面纱;关税如何冲击小企业;以及特朗普政府如何分配日本、韩国及其他贸易伙伴在近期贸易协议中承诺的数千亿美元投资资金。
Key oversight targets would include shedding light on the opaque process for determining tariff exemptions that benefit specific companies, how tariffs are impacting small businesses, and how the Trump administration is doling out hundreds of billions of dollars in investment funds pledged by Japan, South Korea and other trading partners in recent trade deals.
民主党推出对抗性的监督议程,将标志着与共和党对特朗普关税基本采取不干涉态度的决裂,尽管最近一些陷入困境的共和党现任议员(包括缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯 Susan Collins)提出了反对意见,但这种不干涉态度已持续了两年。
A confrontational oversight agenda from Democrats would mark a shift from Republicans' largely hands-off approach to Trump's tariffs, which has persisted for two years despite recent pushback from some struggling Republican incumbents, including Senator Susan Collins of Maine.
前美国贸易代表办公室总法律顾问、前参议院财政委员会民主党贸易顾问格蕾塔·派施(Greta Peisch)表示,加上民主党安排的一些象征性的关税撤销投票,这将开始改变贸易辩论,以影响2028年选举周期。
Coupled with some symbolic tariff rollback votes staged by Democrats, this will start to shift the trade debate to influence the 2028 election cycle, said Greta Peisch, a former general counsel at the US Trade Representative's office and a former trade counsel to Senate Finance Committee Democrats.
派施现为华盛顿韦理律师事务所(Wiley Rein)贸易合伙人。她表示,即使民主党无法凑齐票数,一上来就通过法案改革贸易授权,这一努力也可能“为总统大选的提案奠定基础”。
Even if Democrats can't muster the votes to pass a bill to reform trade authorities right out of the gate, the effort could "form the basis of a proposal for the presidential elections," said Peisch, now a trade partner at Wiley Rein in Washington.
派施补充道:“我认为,这真正是民主党乃至国会整体,开始思考在未来两到四年里是否以及如何颁布贸易立法和改革的开端。”
"I think it's really the beginning of how Democrats, and Congress as a whole, think about whether and how to enact trade legislation and reforms in the next two to four years, really," Peisch added.
国会山的喧嚣声加大,不太可能阻止特朗普在其任期最后两年继续推行更多关税,包括即将对16个主要贸易伙伴的产能过剩展开调查,即使他给予豁免或推迟征收部分关税。
The increased noise from Capitol Hill is unlikely to deter Trump from pursuing more tariffs over his final two years in office, including from a forthcoming investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, even as he grants exemptions or delays some duties.
白宫发言人马修·米德尔顿表示,特朗普将继续推行以关税为驱动的贸易议程,旨在保护美国工人、农民和企业免受过去贸易协议的“欺诈”。
Trump will continue to pursue his tariff-driven trade agenda aimed at protecting American workers, farmers and businesses from being "ripped off" by past trade deals, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said.
米德尔顿在一份电邮声明中说:“无论是在贸易谈判中,还是通过减税和放松监管的经济议程,特朗普总统永远不会动摇‘美国优先’的承诺。该议程已经达成近20项公平贸易协议,并带来数万亿美元的制造业投资,未来将为普通美国人带来更多进展、就业和机遇。” 国际仲裁法专家、圣路易斯华盛顿大学兼职教授米洛什·伊夫科维奇表示,贸易伙伴也明白特朗普坚持维持关税的决心,并意识到国会不会处于能够取消关税的位置。
"President Trump will never waver from putting America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation," Middleton said in an emailed statement. "That agenda has already secured almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments, with even more progress, jobs, and opportunities ahead for everyday Americans." Trading partners also understand Trump's commitment to keeping tariffs in place, and realize that Congress will not be in a position to remove them, said Milos Ivkovic, an international arbitration law expert and adjunct professor at Washington University in St. Louis.
他说,对投票采取观望态度,不会给印度、越南或加拿大等拒绝达成贸易协议的国家带来好处。
A wait-and-see approach to the vote will not benefit trade deal holdouts such as India, Vietnam or Canada, he said.
伊夫科维奇说:“对于所有认为中期选举会产生如此大的影响,以至于美国政府和特朗普总统会改变外交政策的国家来说,它们是错的。” 他补充道,那些推迟与特朗普政府进行贸易磋商的国家“实际上是在危及它们的谈判”。
"For all of those countries who think that midterms will have such an effect that the United States government and President Trump will change foreign policy, they're mistaken," Ivkovic said. Countries that are holding off on trade discussions with the Trump administration "are actually jeopardizing their negotiations," he added.