A Democratic takeover of either chamber of the US Congress could bring tougher scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s dealings with Beijing, even as lawmakers are likely to maintain a broadly hawkish stance towards China, analysts said.

A change in control could shift the emphasis of congressional oversight, with the Democratic Party seeking greater accountability for the administration’s China policy after Trump’s Republican Party largely gave him room to manoeuvre, said Sarah Trister, a former lead staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific.

“I would not expect congressional Democrats to come in and seek to fully reframe the China relationship,” she said.

But winning a majority in the coming midterm elections would give Democrats tools to challenge the administration’s decisions, including the power to compel testimony and obtain documents.

“They’re going to use their power if they do take the majority; they’ll have subpoena power,” said Trister, now a managing director at consulting firm FGS Global.

Trister said both parties largely agree that China poses security and economic risks, although Democrats favour what she described as “strategic decoupling”.

Technology, trade, Taiwan, artificial intelligence and tariffs are among the issues analysts expect to draw scrutiny, as Trump pursues warmer ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

How Democrats see the China AI question Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Centre, said that the Democrats are not of one mind on China right now.

There are “members of the more traditional moderate wing of the Democrats, like Chuck Schumer, who have been advocating for tougher, say, export controls and have been pretty vocal in criticising Trump for relaxing export controls or not being tougher”, he said.

But the landscape among party members differs. Some in the more progressive wing have more mixed views on this topic, according to Chan, and may be interested in “trying to work with China on AI”.

If Democrats take control of Congress, he predicts they may try a two-pronged approach on AI and technology, a hot-button issue for both parties.

“On the one hand, try to close the export control loopholes and push forward things like Match,” Chan said, referring to the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act.

At the same time, Democrats could “build some more communication channels with China on AI and try to come up with different ideas”, he added.

Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, thinks if Democrats take back one or two chambers of Congress, they “will be even more energised” around a US-China collaboration on AI.

“There are a number of other prominent Democratic senators who have said that the United States and China need to collaborate,” he noted.

“Not because we trust China, not because we will trust China, but just because the stakes of getting this issue wrong are too high.”Democrats vow to rein in Trump’s trade war The approach to tariffs, a cornerstone of Trump’s second term agenda, could see a shift under a Democratic-led Congress, according to Josh Lipsky, vice-president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council. He said Democrats had vowed to try to rein in tariffs if they won control of Congress.

He predicted Democrats would pass bills seeking to restore Congress’s authority over trade, including measures requiring congressional approval to maintain tariffs and restricting the use of certain statutes to impose them.

Trump would veto any such legislation that reached his desk, Lipsky said, but the bills could establish a policy framework for 2028 and beyond. On China, however, some tariffs could remain in place, he said.

“Look at the 100 per cent EV tariffs [President Joe Biden] put on China, right?” he said. “That prevented what Europe is experiencing right now: a flood of cheap Chinese EVs [electric vehicles] into our markets.”The current Congress is also debating bipartisan legislation to codify a ban on Chinese-made connected vehicles.

The debate over which tariffs to retain, alongside China’s retaliation involving critical minerals, will play out over the next two years, Lipsky said. Will the US become more aggressive on Taiwan?

Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations, with arms sales and provisions in the annual US defence bill among the key areas of congressional attention.

Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said a Democratic victory could give the party greater influence over Taiwan policy through control of the defence authorisation and spending processes, as well as the Senate agenda.

That could allow Democrats to push for requirements on the delivery of previously approved weapons, notifications of new arms sales, the use of Taiwan security funds and reports on delays, as well as explanations for suspending or conditioning arms sales, she said.

“If the Democrats control both chambers, there could be a push to legislate constraints on administration policy. For example, there could be momentum to pass the Six Assurances to Taiwan Act, which has bipartisan cosponsors,” Glaser said.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to change the status quo by force and is committed to supplying the island with defensive weapons.

Leadership reshuffle on key congressional committees A Democratic majority would put the party in line to take control of key congressional committees, handing leadership positions to lawmakers with differing priorities on China.

In the House, Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, would be positioned to replace Republican Brian Mast as chairman. Ami Bera of California would likely take over the East Asia and Pacific subcommittee from Republican Young Kim.

If Democrats also win the Senate, Chris Coons of Delaware could succeed retiring Jeanne Shaheen as the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee and potentially become its chairman.

The Congressional-Executive Commission on China, currently led by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and the congressman Chris Smith, could also come under Democratic leadership, with the congressman Jim McGovern or Senator Jeff Merkley among the potential choices. Both have long criticised Beijing’s human rights record.

One of the most closely watched changes could come at the House Select Committee on China, which is a temporary congressional body.

Glaser said it would likely survive a change in party control, though its priorities could shift towards human rights issues.

Ro Khanna of California, the committee’s top Democrat, would be positioned to succeed Republican John Moolenaar as chairman.

Wyne said if Khanna did become chairman, he could take the committee in a “potentially much more productive direction”, adding that the ranking member is clear-eyed about various challenges that China poses to US national interests.

He also argues that the overall direction of congressional policy towards China is unlikely to change significantly, though a combination of factors could give Democrats more political room to challenge the administration’s approach.

“A confluence of factors – Trump’s unorthodoxy on China policy, warming American sentiment towards China, and growing anxiety among US allies and partners over Washington’s unreliability and unpredictability – could create more political space for members of the next Congress to advocate alternative approaches,” he said.