乌克兰美元债券大幅上涨，市场押注美国中期选举中民主党的压倒性胜利将改善基辅与华盛顿之间的关系，从而有助于这个饱受战争摧残的国家加强防御努力。
Ukraine’s dollar bonds jumped on a bet that a landslide victory by Democrats in US midterm elections will improve relations between Kyiv and Washington, helping the war-torn nation’s defense efforts.
乌克兰2034年到期的4.5%债券每美元上涨逾1美分，至63美分以上，创一个多月以来最高水平。随着投资者对总统唐纳德·特朗普所属共和党在选举中惨败作出反应，乌克兰债券周三跻身新兴市场表现最佳之列。
Ukraine’s 4.5% notes due in 2034 increased more than a cent on the dollar to above 63 cents, the highest in more than a month. The country’s bonds were among the top emerging-market performers on Wednesday as investors reacted to a heavy election defeat by President Donald Trump’s Republican party.
乌克兰及其总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基与特朗普的关系一直起伏不定，特朗普曾将高油价归咎于基辅对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击，而高油价是他选举失利的原因之一。民主党赢得国会两院控制权也可能对乌克兰有利，该国依赖美国的情报和武器。
Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have had a rocky relationship with Trump, who blamed Kyiv’s attacks on Russian refineries for the high oil prices which contributed to his electoral defeat. The Democrats gaining control of both houses of Congress is likely to also benefit Ukraine, which relies on US intelligence and weapons.
“在乌克兰能源基础设施网络最近遭到袭击后，近期的消息面一直是负面的，”Aberdeen Investments投资总监Viktor Szabo表示。“市场现在预期，新一届国会可能会阻止任何对与乌克兰情报共享的干扰，或限制其使用星盾系统。”旨在结束俄罗斯对乌克兰近五年战争的和平谈判氛围，也可能在美国投票后发生变化。最早可能在未来几天就能初见端倪，届时美国谈判代表将在布鲁塞尔与欧洲伙伴和乌克兰会面，为下周在阿布扎比举行的新一轮谈判奠定基础。
“The recent newsflow has been negative after the latest attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure network,” said Viktor Szabo, an investment director at Aberdeen Investments. “The market is now expecting that the new Congress may prevent any disruptions of intelligence sharing with Ukraine or the limiting of its access to the Starshield system.”The mood around peace talks aimed at ending Russia’s nearly five-year-old war in Ukraine may also change after the US vote. The first taste could come within days when US negotiators meet with their European partners and Ukraine in Brussels to prepare the groundwork for another round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi next week.
诚然，即便选举结果削弱了特朗普施压泽连斯基接受结束冲突协议的能力，特朗普对乌克兰冲突的看法在选举后将如何演变仍远不明朗。凯投宏观首席经济学家尼尔·希林表示，随着民主党控制的国会着手在国内遏制特朗普的影响力，这位美国总统可能会觉得有底气在外交政策上主张自己的权威。
To be sure, it’s far from clear how Trump’s views on the Ukraine conflict will evolve following the elections, even if the result reduces his leverage to pressure Zelenskyy into accepting a deal to end the conflict. The US president may feel emboldened to assert his authority in foreign policy as the Democrat-controlled Congress moves to curb his influence at home, according to Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.
谢林表示，特朗普“可能会试图以对莫斯科更有利的条件迅速结束这场战争”。他补充说，如果成功，这将加大欧洲进一步增加国防开支的压力，并迫使欧洲“承担更大的责任”来保障欧洲大陆的安全。
Trump “could attempt to bring the war to an end quickly on terms more favorable to Moscow,” Shearing said. If successful, this would intensify pressure on Europe to further increase defense spending and “assume greater responsibility” for the continent’s security, he added.