美国国债连续第二天上涨，此前民主党在中期选举中大获全胜，助长了市场预期，认为特朗普政府的税收和支出计划可能受到遏制。
Treasuries headed for a second day of gains, after a Democratic sweep in the midterms fueled expectations that the Trump’s administration’s tax and spending plans may be contained.
全球最大债券市场中，各期限收益率均至少下跌三个基点，其中基准10年期国债收益率降至4.84%，为9月10日以来最低。美元指数下跌0.2%，此前隔夜曾录得两个月来最大单日跌幅。
Yields on every tenor in the world’s biggest bond market dropped by at least three basis points, with those on benchmark 10-year bonds falling to 4.84%, the lowest since Sept. 10. A gauge of the dollar declined 0.2% after posting its biggest one-day loss in two months overnight.
“市场似乎对选举结果表示欢迎，因为领导层有序过渡，且更温和的议程前景浮现，”Allspring Global Investments固定收益首席投资策略师George Bory在报告中写道。“明年赤字可能收窄，这对债券投资者有利。”民主党大胜提振了美国债券市场，因预期如果总统唐纳德·特朗普更难推行其支出计划，国债供给可能受到限制。这种乐观情绪与近几个月盛行的看空情绪形成对比，当时对赤字上升的担忧曾推高收益率至多年高位。
“The markets seem to like the election results as an orderly transition of leadership unfolded and the prospect of a more moderate agenda emerges,” George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, wrote in a report. “The deficit could shrink next year which would be good for bond investors.”The Democratic sweep has given the US bond market a fillip as expectations build that the supply of Treasuries may be capped if President Donald Trump finds it harder to push through his spending plans. The optimism contrasts with the bearish sentiment that had prevailed in recent months when jitters over rising deficits drove yields to multi-year highs.
此次反弹也符合历史规律：自1990年代中期以来，在导致国会或政府分裂的中期选举后，10年期收益率在随后一个月平均下跌18个基点。但也有人表示，涨势能否从此大幅延续尚存争议。
The rally also fits a historical pattern: Since the mid-1990s, 10-year yields have fallen an average of 18 basis points in the month following midterm elections that resulted in a split Congress or government. But some say it’s debatable if the gains can extend much more from here.
Franklin Templeton Institute指出，虽然民主党控制的国会将限制重大新税收和支出立法，但联邦赤字和国债发行不太可能消失。
While a Democratic Congress will constrain major new tax and spending legislation, federal deficits and Treasury issuance are unlikely to disappear, according to Franklin Templeton Institute.
“巨额联邦赤字、高企的国债收益率以及已恢复加息的美联储，给股票和固定收益都带来了更具挑战性的环境，”Franklin首席市场策略师Stephen Dover在备忘录中写道。
“Substantial federal deficits, elevated Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve that has resumed raising interest rates present a more challenging environment for both equities and fixed income,” Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin, wrote in a note.
与此同时，美国财政部周三表示，预计未来几个季度将保持票据和债券的拍卖规模不变，让投资者对供给渠道有更清晰的预期。
Meanwhile, the Treasury said Wednesday that it expected to keep auction sizes for notes and bonds unchanged for the next several quarters, giving investors more clarity on the supply pipeline.
“蓝色浪潮意味着联邦政府在大多数问题上必然会出现分裂，”联邦赫密斯全球流动性市场首席投资官黛博拉·坎宁安说。“这通常会对新立法形成阻挠——随着变数减少，宽泛的金融市场传统上对这种环境持积极态度。”
“The blue wave means the federal government is sure to be divided on most issues,” says Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes. “That typically creates a blockade against new legislation — an environment which broad financial markets traditionally view favorably as variables decrease.”