美国国债价格下跌，原因是美国职位空缺指数超过经济学家预期，显示劳动力市场强劲，可能为美联储提供加息空间以抑制通胀。
Treasuries fell after a gauge of US job openings exceeded economist estimates, an indication of labor market strength with the potential to give the Federal Reserve leeway to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
抛售导致各期限收益率上升三到五个基点，交易员将未来几个月至少加息两次的可能性计入价格。周二——美国选举日——油价因中东战争头条的波动短暂拉低收益率。
The selloff lifted yields across maturities by three to five basis points as traders priced in somewhat higher chances of at least two Fed rate increases over the coming months. Earlier Tuesday — Election Day in the US — volatility in oil prices in response to Middle East war headlines briefly drove yields lower on the day.
美国十年期国债收益率在九月JOLTS职位空缺数据公布后，曾一度上升超过五个基点至4.97%，创日内最高点，显示劳动力需求强劲。美国劳工部的十月就业报告将于周五公布，预计将显示相较九月的改善。
The US 10-year yield rose more than five basis points at one point to 4.97%, reaching session highs minutes after the release of JOLTS job openings data for September that signaled strong demand for labor. The US Labor Department’s October employment report is slated to be released on Friday, and to show improvement from September.
“九月的JOLTS数字是确定的，”ING Groep NV美洲研究负责人帕德里克·加维说。“收益率略微上升与此相符。”十年期国债收益率抹去了约两基点的跌幅。收益率在美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格跌破94美元、创三周低点后触及日内最低点，原油价格周一下跌7.4%，为七月以来最大跌幅。
“The JOLTS numbers for September are firm,” said Padhraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING Groep NV. “The edge higher in yields looks about right against this.”The 10-year note’s yield erased a drop of about two basis points. Yields reached session lows as as the price of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $94, a three-week low, on the heels of a 7.4% drop on Monday, the biggest since July.
周二的走势凸显了今年影响国债收益率的主要力量。油价飙升始于美国二月末对伊朗的攻击，导致中东供应减少，重新点燃美国通胀，并促使美联储在九月首次加息，自2023年以来首次。
Tuesday’s moves highlight some of the major forces acting on Treasury yields this year. A oil price surge, unleashed when the US attacked Iran in late February and leading to reduced Middle East supply, reignited US inflation and led the Fed to raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2023.
在可能改变华盛顿权力平衡的中期选举背景下，美国政府寻求结束战争。本周油价下跌始于华盛顿和德黑兰表示愿意谈判。周二因伊朗否认达成协议的进展而进一步回落。
Against the backdrop of midterm elections with the potential to tip the balance of power in Washington, the US administration has sought to conclude the war. This week’s oil price declines began after Washington and Tehran signaled openness to talks. They were pared Tuesday after Iran denied reports of progress toward an accord.
与此同时，美联储在10月会议上维持利率不变，表示可以耐心决定是否进一步调整利率以抑制通胀。不过，委员会12位有投票权的成员中有两人持不同意见，主张加息。
Meanwhile, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, saying it could afford to be patient in deciding whether to adjust rates further to bring down inflation. Two of the committee’s 12 voters dissented in favor of raising rates, however.
“劳动力市场仍处于良好状态，延续了近期稳步增长的趋势，”Fort Washington Investment Advisors高级投资组合经理Dan Carter表示。“从现在开始，利率风险是双向的”，对美联储还将加息两到三次的预期“似乎合理”。Carter表示，他已减少了对美国国债的敞口，后者上个月录得两年多来最大单月涨幅。几家巨头科技公司发布季度财报后股价暴跌，动摇了市场对人工智能投资热潮可持续性的信心，促使投资者涌入包括美国政府债券在内的避险资产。
“The labor market is still in a good place, continuing the recent trend of steady growth,” said Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors. “Risk to rates is two-sided from here,” and expectations for two or three more Fed rate increases “seem fair.”Carter said he’d reduced exposure to Treasuries, which last month produced their biggest monthly return in more than two years. A slump in shares of giant technology companies after quarterly results from several undermined confidence in the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment boom drove investors into havens including US government bonds.
“这一避险情绪发作凸显了市场中内置的高期望，”Carter说。“但经济增长和稳健盈利的基础依然完好。”
“The risk-off episode has highlighted the lofty expectations built into markets,” Carter said. “But the foundation of economic growth and solid earnings is still intact.”