在财政部公布季度发行计划之前，国债收益率曲线全线上涨，交易员对中期选举首轮计票结果作出反应，结果有利于民主党。
Treasuries gained across the curve ahead of the Treasury’s quarterly issuance plans, with traders reacting to the first vote counts from the midterm elections that favored the Democrats.
美国10年期国债收益率下降四个基点至4.92%，30年期国债收益率下降三个基点至5.30%。美元指数走弱0.2%。
US 10-year yields slipped four basis points to 4.92%, while those on 30-year debt fell three basis points to 5.30%. A gauge of the dollar weakened 0.2%.
“早期头条新闻和预测市场显示，蓝色浪潮的可能性在上升，”悉尼野村控股公司高级利率策略师安德鲁·蒂斯赫斯特（Andrew Ticehurst）表示。“该情景通常被认为对美元不利、对美国国债有利。早期亚洲交易时段的市场反应与此一致。”民主党夺取众议院控制权将形成分裂政府，降低特朗普政府下进一步扩大赤字的立法可能性。债券投资者一直对美国财政轨迹感到不安，该国债务负担约为40万亿美元，而僵局可能限制需要更多国债发行的额外支出或减税风险。
“Early headlines and prediction markets are suggesting a rising probability of a blue wave,” said Andrew Ticehurst, a senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. “That scenario is generally regarded as being negative for the dollar and positive for US Treasuries. Markets are reacting consistently with that in early Asia trading.”A Democratic takeover of the House would create a divided government, reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration. Bond investors have been uneasy about the US’ fiscal trajectory with the nation’s debt load at around $40 trillion, and a gridlock may limit the risk of additional spending or tax cuts that would require more Treasury issuance.
“分裂政府只意味着比过去几年更少的财政支出，”惠灵顿管理公司投资组合经理布里杰·库拉纳（Brij Khurana）表示。“通常，当出现分裂政府时，这对国债来说历史上相当有利。”价格走势扭转了周二的一些损失，当时美国职位空缺报告好于预期，增强了美联储进一步加息的理由，导致国债收益率上升。交易员还在等待周五公布的非农就业数据。
“A divided government just speaks to less fiscal spending than we’ve seen in the last few years,” said Brij Khurana, portfolio manager at Wellington Management. “Typically when we get a divided government, it has been historically pretty good for Treasuries.”The price action reverses some of Tuesday’s losses, when Treasury yields climbed after a better-than-expected report on US job openings bolstered the case for more Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Traders are also awaiting payrolls data due Friday.
数百万美国人正在投票，决定国会控制权以及一系列地方问题。Kalshi显示，民主党夺取众议院控制权的概率约为97%，赢得参议院的概率约为86%，指向两院扫榜的可能性。
Millions of Americans are casting ballots in races that will determine control of Congress as well as a range of local issues. Kalshi is pricing roughly a 97% probability of Democrats taking the House of Representatives and about an 86% chance of winning the Senate, pointing to the possibility of a sweep of both chambers.