美国中期选举终于到来，根据摩根大通的说法，股市事后上涨的可能性很大。这家华尔街机构对周二选举后最可能发生的情况以及股市可能的反应进行了数据分析。历史表明，中期选举和总统选举都对股市有利，最近CNBC的分析也显示了这一点，但“蓝色浪潮”、共和党保住席位或国会分裂等可能性对股票的影响各不相同。
The U.S. midterm elections are finally here, and there's a good chance the stock market could rise afterward, according to JPMorgan. The Wall Street firm crunched the numbers on what's most likely to happen following Tuesday's election, and how stocks are likely to react. History shows that both midterm and presidential elections are positive for stocks, with a recent CNBC analysis showing the same, but the possibility of a blue wave, Republicans holding on or a split Congress carry different implications for equities.
以下是可能的结果：蓝色浪潮——这种可能性为66%，标准普尔500指数可能下跌0.25%或上涨0.50%。分裂国会（民主党控制众议院，共和党控制参议院）——这种可能性为26%，标准普尔500指数可能上涨0.5%至1%。红色浪潮——这种可能性为7%，标准普尔500指数可能上涨1%至1.25%。分裂国会（共和党控制众议院，民主党控制参议院）——这种可能性为1%，标准普尔500指数可能上涨0.25%至0.75%。
Here are the possible outcomes: Blue Wave — This has a 66% likelihood, with the S & P 500 falling 0.25% or rising 0.50%. Split Congress (Democratic House, GOP Senate) — This has a 26% likelihood, with the S & P 500 gaining 0.5% to 1%. Red Wave — This has a 7% likelihood, with the S & P 500 climbing 1% to 1.25%. Split Congress (GOP House, Democratic Senate) — This has a 1% likelihood, with the S & P 500 rising 0.25% to 0.75%.
蓝色浪潮 最可能的结果是66%的可能性，即民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院。结果可能是标准普尔500指数下跌0.25%或上涨0.50%。蓝色浪潮可能意味着人工智能股票抛售，如果这意味着对数据中心和科技公司的监管加强，正如人们所担心的那样。但摩根大通预计，任何限制人工智能扩张的法案不太可能推翻特朗普的否决权。
Blue Wave The most expected outcome with a 66% likelihood is one in which Democrats sweep both the House and the Senate. The S & P 500 could fall 0.25% or rise 0.50%, as a result. A Blue Wave could mean a selloff in artificial intelligence stocks, if it means greater regulation of datacenters and tech companies, as feared. But JPMorgan expects any bills that limit AI expansion would be unlikely to overcome a Trump veto.
该公司表示，交易员应在科技股出现下跌时买入。这也可能意味着赤字支出减少，因为民主党将控制政府财政，这意味着长期债券收益率也可能下降，债券价格上涨。这也增加了对与特朗普捐款有关的企业领导人进行“调查风险”的可能性。分裂国会（民主党控制众议院/共和党控制参议院） 分裂国会的可能性为26%，即民主党控制众议院，共和党控制参议院。
The firm said traders should buy any dip in tech stocks. It could also mean a reduction in deficit spending, given that Democrats will control government finances, meaning longer-dated bond yields could also come down and bond prices rise. It also raises the likelihood of an 'investigation risk' into business leaders connected to donations to Trump. Split Congress (Democratic House/GOP Senate) There's a 26% likelihood of a split Congress, giving Democrats control of the House and Republicans the Senate.
在那种情形下，标准普尔500指数可能上涨0.5%至1%，摩根大通表示，立法僵局的前景令人宽慰，这将使两党都无法拥有足够权力推行政策或增加开支。但这仍将意味着长期债券收益率下降，因为民主党控制着政府财政。对某些商业领域和领导人的调查风险也将依然存在。红色浪潮 现状延续——即共和党仍然控制众议院和参议院——发生的可能性微乎其微，仅有7%的可能性。
In that scenario, the S & P 500 might rise 0.5% to 1%, JPMorgan said, relieved at the prospect of legislative gridlock and leaving neither party with enough power to push policies or in increase spending. However, it would still mean a decline in longer-dated bond yields, as Democrats control government finances. Investigation risk for certain business sectors and leaders also would remain. Red Wave A continuation of the status quo — by which the Republicans still hold the House and Senate — has only a slim chance of occurring, a 7% likelihood.
然而，在这种情况下，股票可能上涨1%至1.25%，因为这不会带来新的监管风险，该公司表示。这也可能导致特朗普继续与伊朗对抗，并可能意味着长期债券收益率随赤字支出不断增加而上升。其他分裂国会（共和党控制众议院/民主党控制参议院）周二选举后最不可能的情形是共和党控制众议院、民主党控制参议院，摩根大通给出的概率仅为1%。
In that scenario, however, stocks could rally 1% to 1.25%, as it introduces no new regulatory risks, the firm said. It could also result in Trump continuing his war with Iran, and may also mean a move higher in longer-dated bond yields with ever higher deficit spending. Other split Congress (GOP House/Democrat Senate) The slimmest possibility following Tuesday's election is a GOP-controlled House with a Democratic Senate, a scenario JPMorgan gave just a 1% probability.
在这种情况下，标准普尔500指数上涨0.25%至0.75%。这种分裂国会也将意味着立法僵局，这可能导致艰难的预算斗争和可能的政府停摆。调查风险也依然存在，因为参议院拥有调查权。无论结果如何，周二的选举总会以某种方式为交易员提供急需的确定性。
In this case, the S & P 500 rises 0.25% to 0.75%. This split Congress would also mean legislative gridlock, which could mean tough budget fights and possible government shutdowns. Investigation risk also remains, as the Senate holds investigative powers. Whatever the outcome, one way or another Tuesday's elections will give traders much needed certainty.