有限的美国空袭发生在投票前夕，内塔尼亚胡推动进一步袭击使达成协议的努力复杂化“特朗普正在保留两种选择：寻求达成协议，同时保留军事选项，”分析师约翰·卡拉布雷塞表示美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举中惨败，给其对伊朗政策蒙上了新的不确定性，分析人士质疑这一政治挫折将推动他走向外交途径，还是重新升级军事行动。
Limited US strikes ahead of vote, Netanyahu’s push for further attacks complicate efforts to reach agreement‘Trump is keeping both options open: pursuing a deal while retaining the military option,’ says analyst John Calabrese US President Donald Trump's crushing midterm defeat has cast fresh uncertainty over his approach to Iran, with analysts questioning whether the political setback will push him toward diplomacy or renewed military escalation.
周二的中期选举中民主党获胜，给特朗普的共和党造成重创，选民对生活成本、通货膨胀以及与伊朗的战争表达了不满。
The Democratic victories in Tuesday's midterm elections dealt a major blow to Trump's Republican Party, with voters expressing dissatisfaction over the cost of living, inflation and the war with Iran.
特朗普周三承认，伊朗战争导致了共和党的失利。然而，他继续为自己的决定辩护，对《华尔街日报》表示：“我还会再这么做一次。”美国外交政策分析师杰克·克莱顿此前已预料到选民会因战争的经济后果而在选举中进行惩罚。
Trump himself acknowledged Wednesday that the Iran war had contributed to the Republican losses. However, he continued defending his decision, telling the Wall Street Journal, "I would have done it again." Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst, had anticipated an electoral backlash over the war's economic consequences.
“我们预计会看到特朗普在中期选举中因这场战争而在政治上受到惩罚，选民认为这场战争进一步推高了汽油价格和生活成本，”他在投票前告诉阿纳多卢通讯社。外交接触克莱顿表示，特朗普和副总统JD·万斯倾向于外交解决，并指出万斯近期致信伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·礼萨伊。
“We expect to see Trump politically punished in the midterm elections for a war that voters feel has further increased gas prices and the cost of living,” he told Anadolu ahead of the vote. Diplomatic outreach Clayton said Trump and Vice President JD Vance would prefer a diplomatic solution, pointing to Vance's recent letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
他说，致信礼萨伊而非外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐意义重大，因为华盛顿认为这位安全官员在伊朗决策中更具影响力，尽管他以强硬派著称。
Addressing Rezaei rather than Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was significant, he said, because Washington considers the security official more influential in Iranian decision-making, despite his reputation as a hardliner.
伊朗媒体援引礼萨伊周六的话说，他确认收到信件，称华盛顿的语气已有变化。阿拉格齐称此次接触具有建设性，但排除了与美国官员即将举行会晤的可能。
Rezaei acknowledged receiving the letter, saying Saturday that Washington's tone had changed. Araghchi described the outreach as constructive but ruled out an imminent meeting with US officials, according to Iranian media.
据报道，该信件寻求重启谈判，包括就伊朗核计划进行谈判，当时华盛顿正在考虑进一步军事行动。
The letter reportedly sought to restart negotiations, including on Iran's nuclear program, as Washington considered further military action.
克莱顿表示，德黑兰对美国的意图仍深表怀疑，特别是在一份14点谅解备忘录破裂、战斗重新爆发之后，万斯在其中发挥了核心作用。
Clayton said Tehran remained deeply skeptical of US intentions, particularly after fighting resumed following the collapse of a 14-point memorandum of understanding, in which Vance had played a central role.
“这表明他们非常担心美国不会继续致力于外交，”他说，指的是德黑兰不愿在新协议下接受核查。
“This suggests that they are very concerned that the US will not remain committed to diplomacy,” he said, referring to Tehran’s reluctance to accept nuclear inspections under a new agreement.
他说，伊朗担心类似2015年核协议下的核查，可能会向华盛顿提供关于其核储备及其位置的情报。
He said Iran feared inspections similar to those under the 2015 nuclear deal could provide Washington with intelligence about its nuclear stockpile and its location.
到周二，雷扎伊表示，美国对德黑兰要求的回应仍然令人难以信服。
By Tuesday, Rezaei said the US response to Tehran’s demands remained unconvincing.
内塔尼亚胡的角色与升级风险 克莱顿还指出，据报道一直在推动特朗普恢复对伊朗发动袭击的以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，是外交努力的一个潜在障碍。
Netanyahu's role and the risk of escalation Clayton also identified Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has reportedly been pushing Trump to resume attacks on Iran, as a potential obstacle to diplomatic efforts.
他认为，重燃战火可能符合内塔尼亚胡的国内政治利益，因为这可以推迟或使其可能的下台变得复杂化。在上周选举后其集团在议会中未获多数席位的情况下，更大规模的战争可能给内塔尼亚胡提供一个寻求组建紧急联合政府并继续掌权的机会。
He argued that renewed conflict could serve Netanyahu's domestic political interests by delaying or complicating a possible departure from office. With his bloc short of a parliamentary majority after last week's election, a wider war could give Netanyahu an opening to seek an emergency coalition and remain in power.
尽管如此，克莱顿认为，在没有美国支持的情况下，以色列再次发动袭击的可能性极小。
Nevertheless, Clayton considered another Israeli attack highly unlikely without US support.
他还质疑特朗普是否会再次支持内塔尼亚胡，考虑到战争的政治代价以及美国家庭面临进一步经济压力的前景。
He also questioned whether Trump would back Netanyahu again, given the political costs of the war and the prospect of further economic pressure on American households.
然而，美国官员向美国新闻媒体透露，美军周一在霍尔木兹海峡对使用地对空导弹的伊朗部队实施了有限打击。伊朗官方媒体报道了盖什姆岛、亨甘岛以及大陆港口城市阿巴斯港附近发生爆炸。克莱顿还指出黎巴嫩是一个潜在的引爆点。
However, US forces carried out limited strikes Monday against Iranian forces using surface-to-air missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, officials told US news media. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm and Hengam islands and near the mainland port of Bandar Abbas. Clayton also identified Lebanon as a potential flashpoint.
他说，内塔尼亚胡可能会试图通过升级对伊朗的袭击来破坏可能达成的美伊协议，特别是因为伊朗已将停止以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击作为外交进展的条件。
He said Netanyahu could seek to undermine a possible US-Iran agreement by escalating attacks there, particularly because Iran has made an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon a condition for diplomatic progress.
随着美国人周二投票，特朗普表示，他已与内塔尼亚胡达成协议，到年底前终止美国每年约40亿美元对以色列的军事援助。他未提供关于如何实施这一切断援助的细节。
As Americans voted Tuesday, Trump said he had reached a deal with Netanyahu to end roughly $4 billion in annual US military aid to Israel by year's end. He provided no details on how the cutoff would be implemented.
2016年签署的一份为期10年的谅解备忘录承诺，美国将通过2028年9月每年向以色列提供38亿美元军事援助，这引发了关于特朗普宣布将如何实施的疑问。特朗普表示，武器销售和其他援助可能会继续。选举挫折会推动特朗普走向外交还是进一步打击？
A 10-year memorandum signed in 2016 pledges $3.8 billion in annual US military assistance to Israel through September 2028, raising questions about how Trump's announcement would be implemented. Trump said weapons sales and other assistance could continue. Could the election setback push Trump toward diplomacy or further strikes?
克莱顿概述了对共和党在中期选举中失利的两种可能反应。特朗普可能会对军事行动变得更加谨慎，以避免进一步的政治损害，或者随着国会反对派制约其国内议程，更加重视外交政策。
Clayton outlined two possible responses to the Republican defeat in the midterms. Trump could become more cautious about military action to avoid further political damage or focus more heavily on foreign policy as congressional opposition constrains his domestic agenda.
他怀疑，像战争初期那样规模的另一场持续军事行动是否可行，但表示进一步打击可能作为“强制外交”，旨在从伊朗榨取更有利的条款。
He doubted that another sustained military campaign on the scale seen at the start of the war was feasible but said further strikes could serve as "coercive diplomacy" aimed at extracting more favorable terms from Iran.
他说：“我仍持怀疑态度，认为不会像今年早些时候那样全面恢复战争，因为无法做到这一点。”
“I remain skeptical that there will be a full blown resumption of war as we saw earlier in the year, due to being unable to do so,” he said.
中东研究所高级研究员约翰·卡拉布雷塞同样警告，不要假设选举结果会决定特朗普的下一步行动。
John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, similarly cautioned against assuming that the election outcome would determine Trump's next move.
他说：“白宫释放的混合信号，加上外交进展程度的不确定性，使得难以预测接下来会发生什么。”
“The mixed signals from the White House, coupled with uncertainty over the extent of diplomatic progress, make it difficult to predict what comes next,” he said.
他说，华盛顿和德黑兰在潜在协议上仍存在巨大分歧，双方似乎都将妥协视为投降。
He said Washington and Tehran remained far apart on a potential agreement, with both sides appearing to view compromise as capitulation.
卡拉布雷斯表示，外交与军事施压正在同步进行，双方通过卡塔尔传递信息，与此同时霍尔木兹海峡周边的紧张局势持续。
Calabrese described diplomacy and military pressure as proceeding simultaneously, with messages exchanged through Qatar even as tensions continued around the Strait of Hormuz.
他警告称，有关美以扩大目标清单的报道，包括能源基础设施和其他经济重要设施，表明更大规模的军事行动可能比早先的冲突更具破坏性。
He warned that reports of expanded US and Israeli target lists, including energy infrastructure and other economically important sites, suggested a wider military campaign could be more destructive than earlier fighting.
他说：“我的感觉是，特朗普正在保留两种选择：在追求达成协议的同时保留军事选项。”
"My sense is that Trump is keeping both options open: pursuing a deal while retaining the military option," he said.
民主党获胜将赋予其更大空间，在新一届国会于1月开议时调查政府并质疑其支出优先次序。
More congressional scrutiny, no automatic restraint Democrats' victories will give them greater scope to investigate the administration and challenge its spending priorities when the new congressional terms begin in January.
随着控制两院，民主党将能够举行听证会、要求政府官员提供信息并质疑资金决定，从而可能增加长期冲突的政治成本。
With control of both chambers, Democrats will be able to hold hearings, demand information from administration officials and challenge funding decisions, potentially increasing the political costs of a prolonged conflict.
然而，他们的胜利不会自动叫停军事行动，也不会解决国会与总统之间长期存在的战争权力斗争。
However, their victories will not automatically halt military operations or resolve the longstanding struggle between Congress and the presidency over war powers.
选举结果也反映了对抗带来的国内经济后果，特别是能源价格上涨和美国家庭面临的更广泛生活成本压力。
The election results also reflect the domestic economic consequences of the confrontation, particularly rising energy prices and wider cost-of-living pressures facing American households.
美国媒体报道，对高昂成本和伊朗战争的不满导致共和党失利，民主党在传统共和党地区取得显著进展。
US media reported that dissatisfaction with high costs and the Iran war contributed to Republican losses, with Democrats making significant gains in traditionally Republican areas.
卡拉布雷斯表示，中期选举可能影响特朗普的考量，但危机的最终结果将取决于华盛顿和德黑兰能否就和解条款达成一致。
Calabrese said the midterms could influence Trump's calculations, but the outcome of the crisis would ultimately depend on whether Washington and Tehran could agree on the terms of a settlement.
他说：“伊朗和美国在避免另一场危机的潜在协议上立场依然相距甚远。除非这些分歧能在未来几天内弥合，我担心敌对行动恢复可能变得不可避免。”
"The Iranian and American positions on a potential deal to avert another crisis remain far apart," he said. "Unless those differences can be bridged in the coming days, I fear a resumption of hostilities may become unavoidable."