
华盛顿 —— 在审视其共和党在中期选举中惨败之际,唐纳德·特朗普总统如今面临一个棘手的问题:如何处理他那场不得人心、已持续8个月的对伊朗战争。
WASHINGTON — As he takes stock of his Republican Party’s midterm drubbing, President Donald Trump now faces the difficult question of what to do about his unpopular 8-month-old war against Iran.
数周来,特朗普一直威胁称,一旦美国大选尘埃落定,如果德黑兰不按他可接受的条件达成和解,他将恢复对伊朗的全面轰炸。
For weeks, Trump has threatened to return to a full-scale bombardment of Iran once the U.S. elections were in the rearview mirror if Tehran did not come to a settlement under terms acceptable to him.
在民主党取得压倒性选举胜利后的周三,特朗普发表了首番评论 —— 这场胜利浪潮部分源于美国选民对战争的不满 —— 他基本赞同了副总统JD·万斯的观点,后者公开推测这场战争对共和党而言是一场灾难。
In his first comments on Wednesday after Democrats’ resounding election victory — a wave powered in part by the American electorate’s dissatisfaction with the war — Trump largely agreed with Vice President JD Vance, who publicly ruminated on the war being a catastrophe for Republicans.
“很大程度上是真的,因为它让汽油价格上涨了一点儿,”特朗普说。尽管如此,他仍为发动这场冲突的决定加倍辩护,尽管其政治代价巨大。“与此同时,如果让我重来一次,我还会这么做,”他说。
“It’s largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit,” Trump said. Still, he doubled down on his decision to launch the conflict despite its big political cost. “At the same time, if I had to do it again, I’d do it again,” he said.
袭击与反击已在该地区造成数百亿美元损失。而这场冲突已波及全球家庭的钱包,导致汽油价格上涨,几乎所有行业的成本都在上升。
The strikes, and counterstrikes, have caused tens of billions of dollars of damage in the region. And the conflict has reached into the pocketbook of families around the globe with elevated gas prices and rising costs in just about every sector.
如今,当特朗普权衡下一步行动时,对伊朗、中东乃至整个全球经济而言,赌注再高不过了。
Now, as Trump ponders his next move, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Iran, the Middle East and the global economy writ large.
特朗普或许收敛减少,但冲突如今更加复杂。在美国海军护航国际油轮的帮助下,石油再次从霍尔木兹海峡流出,但冲突已蔓延至红海,伊朗支持的胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯领导的联盟在那里交战。
Trump may be less restrained, but the conflict is now more complicated While oil is flowing again from the Strait of Hormuz with the help of U.S. Navy escorts for international tankers, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea with Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi Arabia -led coalition fighting it out.
红海局势依然极其动荡。胡塞武装正袭击也门平民和沙特基础设施,并寻求加强与非洲之角各地武装团体的联系。
The situation in the Red Sea remains particularly volatile. The Houthis are attacking Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructure, and are looking to bolster ties with militant groups across the Horn of Africa.
也门胡塞武装对国际公认的也门政府控制区发动的袭击,也加剧了日益严重的人道主义危机。
The attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis on areas controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni government have also worsened a growing humanitarian crisis.
一位也门政府高级官员指出,伊朗及其代理武装对该地区构成的威胁“并非一夜之间因美国大选而改变”,敦促华盛顿避免做出仓促决定。该官员未获授权公开评论,因此以匿名身份发言。
The threat that the region faces from Iran and its proxy groups, noted a senior Yemeni government official, “did not change overnight” with the U.S. elections, urging Washington to avoid hasty decisions. The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the basis of anonymity.
“有理由怀疑特朗普可能会感到束缚减少,因为政治损害已成定局,”曾任中央情报局高级分析师、专注中东安全问题的布赖恩·哈格蒂说。“与此同时,通过升级对伊朗打击所希望达成的战略核算或战略逻辑,今天与一周前或一个月前并无不同。”分析人士表示,特朗普至少有几个选项。现就职于华盛顿智库“国防优先”组织的哈格蒂说,特朗普可选择维持接近目前的态势,即美军继续实施所谓的“防御性打击”,同时持续海上封锁以限制伊朗石油流向全球市场。
“There’s reason to suspect that Trump may feel less restrained given that the political damage is done,” said Brian Haggerty, a former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency who focused on Middle East security issues. “At the same time, the strategic calculus or the strategic logic of what you hope to achieve through an escalation of strikes against Iran is no different today than it was a week ago or a month ago.”Trump has at least a few options, analysts say Haggerty, who now works with Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank, said Trump could choose to maintain something close to the current posture, with the U.S. military carrying out what it calls “defensive strikes” while continuing its naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global market.
另一个选项是打击伊朗的“镐山”,这是一个与其核计划相关、深埋于伊朗中部地下的设施,曾在特朗普首任期担任国务院近东事务助理国务卿的大卫·申克说。特朗普曾多次暗示正在考虑以该地点为目标。
Another option is striking Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to its nuclear program that is buried deep underground in central Iran, said David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in Trump’s first term. Trump has repeatedly suggested he was considering targeting the site.
申克说,特朗普随后可抽身而退,宣称已对伊朗核计划造成足够破坏——或许还会尝试寻求一项“遮羞协议”,恢复霍尔木兹海峡航行自由,给予伊朗一定程度的制裁缓解,并将进一步的核谈判推至未来。
Schenker said Trump could then walk away and contend he had done sufficient damage to Iran’s nuclear program — and perhaps try to pursue a “fig leaf agreement” that restores freedom of navigation to the Strait of Hormuz, offers Iran some degree of sanctions relief, and punts additional nuclear talks to the future.
还有一个选项是兑现特朗普战争早期曾扬言要对伊朗基础设施发动大规模攻击的威胁。“伊朗人可能认为总统受创且受国会制约,但事实也可能恰恰相反,”申克说。
Yet another option would be to follow up on threats Trump made earlier in the war to launch massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure. “The Iranians may believe the president is wounded and constrained by Congress, but the opposite can also be true,” Schenker said.
但申克表示,这种升级可能会加剧许多选民周二支持民主党的理由之一——石油和能源价格问题。
But such escalation would likely exacerbate the oil and energy price problem that many voters cited as a reason for supporting Democrats on Tuesday, Schenker said.
大选后周三,布伦特原油期货价格跌破每桶95美元,触及两个月来最低水平,这表明市场预期不会发生大规模打击。分析人士指出,伊朗当然也有发言权。
The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil tumbled below $95 on Wednesday after the election, touching its lowest level in two months, a signal that markets do not expect major strikes. Iran, of course, also has a say, analysts note.
“打架一旦开始,你可以停止出拳。但这不代表另一方会停止出拳,”捍卫民主基金会分析师布拉德利·鲍曼说。“我们可以试图结束战争,但如果伊朗伊斯兰共和国继续在霍尔木兹海峡袭击航运,我们该怎么办?” 地区官员高度戒备,关注特朗普下一步动向 在美国大选前几周,中东官员紧盯特朗普的只言片语,寻找这位共和党领袖如何权衡下一步行动的线索。
“Once you start a fistfight, you can stop throwing punches. That doesn’t mean the other combatant will stop throwing punches,” said Bradley Bowman, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “We can try to end the war, but what do we do if the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?”Regional officials are on high alert for what Trump does next Middle East officials had been hanging on Trump’s every word in the weeks leading up to the U.S. elections, looking for clues on how the Republican leader was weighing his next steps.
据一位知情人士透露,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在周末与特朗普的通话中,敦促重新打击伊朗,但特朗普未承诺采取军事行动。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for renewed strikes on Iran during a call over the weekend with Trump, who would not commit to taking military action, according to a person who was briefed on it.
三位中东政府官员周三表示,特朗普及其政府似乎一直在向伊朗发出信号,暗示其筹码将在美国大选结束后进一步减弱。
Three Middle Eastern government officials said on Wednesday that Trump and his administration had seemed to be signaling to Iran that its leverage would only diminish after the U.S. elections were over.
据这些官员透露,政府官员曾在外交渠道私下暗示,特朗普在11月3日后可能更愿意重启打击,因为他在政治上已几乎没有什么可失去的了。这些官员未获授权公开评论,因此要求匿名。
Administration officials had privately suggested in diplomatic channels that Trump might be more willing to restart strikes after Nov. 3 because he’d have little left to lose politically, according to the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
这些官员表示,周二遭遇惨败后,人们仍担心特朗普可能会更大胆地对伊朗实施全面打击或新的有限打击。
After Tuesday’s electoral shellacking, there was lingering concern that Trump might be more emboldened to carry out full-scale or new limited strikes against Iran, the officials said.
第四位官员表示,选举结果让调解人对寻找解决冲突的途径有了一定程度的乐观。
A fourth official said the results of the election gave mediators a measure of optimism about finding a pathway to resolving the conflict.
与此同时,万斯似乎比他的老板特朗普更有力地将这次选举惨败归咎于伊朗战争,而特朗普最初则将惨败归咎于共和党的候选人。
Meanwhile, Vance appeared to more forcefully pin the electoral debacle on the Iran war than his boss Trump, who initially blamed the GOP’s candidates for the big loss.
万斯在一篇长篇社交媒体帖子中谈到中期选举时说:“我们输掉选举的原因,就是这场战争。”作为2028年潜在总统竞选人,万斯曾是白宫内部对发动战争的明智性持怀疑态度最强烈的人之一,但在特朗普做出决定后,他也随之支持了这一决定。
“The reason we lost,” Vance said of the midterm elections in a lengthy social media post, “is the war.”Vance, a potential 2028 presidential contender, had been among the most skeptical inside the White House on the wisdom of launching the war but got on board with Trump’s decision once he made it.
选民数据显示伊朗战争有影响,但不是首要议题 几位在周二意外获胜的民主党候选人在胜选演说中提到了选民对伊朗战争的不满。
Voter data shows Iran had an impact but was not the top issue Several Democratic candidates who scored upsets on Tuesday noted voter discontent with the Iran war in their victory speeches.
爱荷华州当选参议员乔什·图雷克说:“我走到哪里,听到的都是同一件事。他们会说,乔什,我光是要维持温饱、有房住、付得起电费就已经很吃力了。再加上这场伊朗战争,我光是要保证油箱里有油就已经很吃力了。”根据美联社选民投票调查——一项针对美国10万多名选民的调查——约6成选民认为美国对伊朗采取军事行动是“错误决定”。
“Wherever I went, I heard the same thing,” said Sen.-elect Josh Turek of Iowa. “They would say, Josh, I’m struggling just to keep food on the table, keep a roof above my head, pay my electric bill. And with this war in Iran, I’m struggling just to keep gas in my tank.”About 6 in 10 voters said the U.S. made the “wrong decision” in taking military action against Iran, according to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of more than 100,000 voters in the United States.
大多数对伊朗战争不满的选民在当地美国众议院选举中支持了民主党候选人,但调查表明,伊朗战争并非大多数选民最关心的议题。
Most of those voters dissatisfied with the Iran war backed the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, but the survey suggested the Iran war was not the top issue for most voters.
只有约三分之一的选民表示,伊朗战争对其国会投票选择“至关重要”。这远低于约一半选民将生活成本或政府腐败视为“至关重要”的比例。
Only about one-third of voters said the war in Iran was “crucial” to shaping how they voted for Congress. That was well below the roughly half who said that about the cost of living or government corruption.
几乎所有在当地美国众议院选举中支持民主党候选人的选民都表示,对伊朗开战是“错误的决定”,而大约八成支持共和党候选人的选民则认为这是“正确的决定”。与此同时,民调显示,全国约有六成选民对汽油和柴油的价格“非常担忧”,而在这部分选民中约有三分之二在当地美国众议院选举中投票支持民主党候选人。但特朗普本人表示,即使事后回顾,他仍会像现在一样对待伊朗。
Nearly all voters who backed the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race said going to war with Iran was the “wrong decision,” while roughly 8 in 10 voters who backed the Republican candidate said it was the “right decision.”Meanwhile, about 6 in 10 voters nationally said they were “very concerned” about the cost of gasoline and diesel, the poll showed — and about two-thirds of that group voted for the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race. But Trump, for his part, said even in hindsight he’d approach Iran exactly as he has.
“我可以告诉你,就这场战争而言,我不会有任何不同的做法,”总统说。
“I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned I would have done nothing different,” the president said.
Magdy在纽约报道。美联社记者Collin Binkley在华盛顿、Hannah Fingerhut在爱荷华州得梅因、Kathleen Foody在芝加哥提供了报道。
Magdy reported from New York. AP writers Collin Binkley in Washington, Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa, and Kathleen Foody in Chicago contributed reporting.