美国中期选举结果能让海湾国家免于进一步战争吗？卡特琳·舍尔 2026年11月5日 美国中期选举结果显示了唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗战争有多不受欢迎。如今，几个月来一直陷入美国与伊朗战争夹缝中的海湾国家，看到了乐观的理由。
Will US midterm election results spare Gulf states from further war? Cathrin Schaer November 5, 2026 The US midterm results showed how unpopular Donald Trump's Iran war is. Now, Gulf countries, trapped for months in the middle of the war between the US and Iran, see reason for optimism.
偏好在谷歌上使用DW 德黑兰庆祝：一些专家认为，伊朗决心在中期选举前不向唐纳德·特朗普做出任何让步，以使他继续承受压力——现在他们可能更愿意谈判 在本周美国中期选举中本党遭遇惨败后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承认，与伊朗的战争很可能起到了一定作用。
Prefer DW on Google Celebrations in Tehran: Some experts suggest Iran was determined not to give Donald Trump any concessions before the midterms, so that he remained under pressure — now they may be more willing to negotiate After his party's resounding defeat in the US midterm elections this week, President Donald Trump conceded that the war with Iran had likely played a part.
“我认为其中一部分原因是伊朗，但与此同时，人们也理解我对伊朗所做的事情的重要性，”特朗普告诉福克斯新闻，承认美国选民不愿接受战争对油价的影响。
"I think a part of it was Iran, but, at the same time, people understood the importance of what I've done with Iran," Trump told Fox News, conceding that US voters were unwilling to accept the impact of the war on gas prices.
观察人士表示，美国和以色列一直推迟对伊朗发动重大攻击，直到两国都完成选举 10月底，《华尔街日报》报道说，特朗普政府已经在警告海湾国家政府，为中期选举后的一场短暂而激烈的军事行动做好准备。冲突会再次升级吗？
Observers say the United States and Israel had been holding off on major attacks on Iran until after both had held elections At the end of October, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was already warning Gulf state governments to brace for a short, intense military campaign after the midterms. Could conflict escalate again?
虽然外交政策是美国总统的职权范围，但分析人士指出，由民主党控制的国会理论上可以拒绝为特朗普的军事行动提供资金。然而，新当选的民主党政客要到明年初才会就职。
While foreign policy is a US president's purview, analysts have pointed out that a Congress controlled by the Democratic party could ostensibly withhold funding for Trump's military expeditions. However newly-elected Democratic politicians won't take their seats until early next year.
美国一直在向中东调动军事资产，对伊朗的有限攻击也在持续进行 本周，两位美国政治学教授在《外交事务》杂志上写道，过去像特朗普这样的美国总统，一旦成为“跛脚鸭”——即失去对国会控制权且无法连任的总统——往往会加强国际干预。
The US has been moving military assets into the Middle East and limited attacks on Iran have been ongoing As two US professors of political science wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine this week, past American presidents, like Trump, who become "lame ducks" — that is, a president who loses control of Congress and can't run for another term — have often ramped up international interventions.
“当他们考虑自己的政治遗产时，跛脚鸭总统往往会转向外交政策，因为总统的权力让他们能够不受烦人的国内政治束缚而行事，”他们解释道。而教授们认为，特朗普最有可能采取行动的地方之一就是伊朗。
"As they think about their legacy, lame ducks often turn to foreign policy, where the power of the presidency allows them to act unfettered by pesky domestic politics," they explained. And one of the places where Trump is most likely to act is Iran the professors argued.
另一方面，特朗普也曾对多家媒体表示，他“并不急于”再次轰炸伊朗。对于伊朗的下一步行动，观点也存在分歧。
On the other hand, Trump also told several media outlets that he was in "no rush" to start bombing Iran again Opinions on Iran's next moves are also divided.
伊朗方面表示已做好应对任何袭击的准备，高层领导人的言论表明，他们可能愿意打击比以往更广泛的目标。这可能包括地区能源和经济基础设施，甚至海底电信电缆或数据中心。
The Iranians have said they're ready for any attack and rhetoric from senior leaders indicates they may be willing to strike a wider range of targets than previously. That could include regional energy and economic infrastructure and even undersea telecommunications cabling or data centers.
总部位于华盛顿的中东研究所（MEI）高级研究员、伊朗问题专家罗斯·哈里森在本周由该研究所举办的一次视频简报会上表示：“如果伊朗认为其领导层面临生存威胁，那么‘一切皆有可能’。我认为他们[这次]在海湾国家的打击目标会有所不同……所以这真的取决于事态如何发展。”其他专家则认为，伊朗此前是在故意拖延，以在中期选举前向特朗普施压。现在选举已结束，伊朗可能更愿意谈判达成和平协议。
If Iran thinks there is an existential threat to its leadership, then "all bets are off," Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, or MEI, and an expert on Iran, said during a virtual briefing hosted by MEI this week. "I think they will target differently in the Gulf states [this time] … so it really depends on how all this unfolds." other experts believe Iran was deliberately holding out to pressure Trump before the midterms. Now the election is over the Iranians may be more willing to negotiate a peace deal.
不情愿的参与者 所有这些使得海湾国家陷入了困境，自冲突爆发以来，它们一直是伊朗袭击的主要目标。
Unwilling participants All this leaves the Gulf states, who have been the main targets of Iranian attacks since the conflict began, in a difficult position.
“我们发现自己被卷入了一场危机，我们曾在外交上极力试图避免这场危机，”阿联酋领导层外交政策顾问阿努瓦尔·加尔加什上周末在巴林举行的安全会议——由国际战略研究所（IISS）主办的麦纳麦对话会上表示。“我们显然正在寻求一条政治退出之路。”
"We find ourselves drawn within a crisis that we worked diplomatically very hard to try to avert," Anwar Gargash, a foreign policy adviser to United Arab Emirates leadership, said at a security conference in Bahrain last weekend, the Manama Dialogue hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, or IISS. "We are clearly seeking a political off-ramp."
卡塔尔一直试图在美国和伊朗之间进行斡旋，但也一直在其机场进行应急演练。阿联酋也在进行类似演练。沙特阿拉伯则面临两线作战的局面：这个产油大国已遭到邻国也门胡塞武装的袭击。甚至埃及也做出了反应，据报道正在加强苏伊士运河周边的防空防御。
Qatar has been trying to negotiate between the US and Iran but has also been conducting emergency drills at its airport. The Emiratis have been doing similar drills. And Saudi Arabia is looking at a war on two fronts: The oil-rich state is already under attack from the Houthi militia in neighboring Yemen Even Egypt has reacted, reportedly strengthening air defenses around the Suez Canal.
尽管如此，无论接下来发生什么，美以伊战争已经让海湾国家重新评估与美国的防务伙伴关系。美国军基地非但没有让它们安全，反而让它们成为目标。
Still, no matter what happens next, the US-Israel-Iran war has already made Gulf states evaluate defense partnerships with the US. Rather than making them safe, US bases have made them a target.
“整个地区对美国普遍感到失望，原因在于这场战争的愚蠢、华盛顿军事和外交行为的反复无常，以及其决定将以色列的防御置于海湾合作伙伴的防御之上，”国际战略研究所高级研究员哈桑·阿尔哈桑本周告诉彭博社通讯社。“如果说1991年美国解放科威特确立了美国在该地区的角色，那么2026年的战争可能会被铭记为终结这一角色的时刻。” 取代美国？
"There is widespread disappointment across the region with the US over the folly of the war, the erratic nature of Washington's military and diplomatic conduct, and its decision to prioritize Israel's defense over that of its Gulf partners," Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the IISS, told news agency Bloomberg this week. "If the US liberation of Kuwait in 1991 was the moment that established America's role in the region, the 2026 war may be remembered as the moment that undid it." Replacing America?
海湾国家正在拓展外部联系，例如阿联酋正在靠近以色列，沙特则与巴基斯坦和土耳其签署了麦加防务协定。
Gulf states are widening their outreach with, for example, the UAE getting closer to Israel and the Saudis entering the Mecca defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey.
“海湾国家已经转向战略自主和自力更生，”伦敦国王学院安全研究学院高级讲师安德烈亚斯·克里格本周在在线媒体《中东之眼》撰文指出。“一个跛脚鸭特朗普将加速这一进程。” 尽管由民主党主导的国会可能会让美国再次成为一个稍微更可靠的伙伴。
"The Gulf states have already moved toward strategic autonomy and self-reliance," Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, wrote for online outlet Middle East Eye this week. "A lame-duck Trump will speed that process." That's even though a Democrat-led Congress might make the US a slightly more reliable partner again.
克里格认为，海湾国家应当团结起来，向美国施压，使其不攻击伊朗，随后在没有美国参与的情况下与伊朗谈判达成一项互不侵犯协议。
Krieg argues that Gulf states should come together to pressure the US not to attack Iran and then negotiate a non-aggression pact with Iran — without US involvement.
对于这种团结在海湾地区是否可能，前美国驻该地区大使、中东研究所杰出研究员瑞安·克罗克在该所的在线简报会上回答德国之声记者提问时表示存疑。
Whether that kind of unity is possible in the Gulf is dubious, Ryan Crocker, a former US ambassador to the region and distinguished fellow with MEI, replied to a question from DW during the MEI's online briefing.
重新评估关系？沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉（左）与美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥在最近于美国举行的二十国集团会议上 “我担心，有意义的海湾团结短期内不会出现，”克罗克说。“由于其他海湾国家在2017年对卡塔尔采取的行动，卡塔尔人仍然缺乏信任。此外，”他补充道，“沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋之间存在众所周知的分歧，我们在苏丹和也门看到了这一点，当然，在与以色列的关系问题上也存在深刻分歧。因此，我不指望会有任何朝着海湾安全合作方向的实质性举措。”
Reevaluating the relationship? Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan (left) and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at a recent G20 meeting in the US "I'm afraid that meaningful Gulf unity is not coming to a theater near us anytime soon," Crocker said. The Qataris remain untrusting because of how other Gulf states acted against them in 2017. And, he added, "there are well known differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE we see in Sudan [and] in Yemen, and, of course, the profound differences … on relations with Israel. So I would not expect any meaningful moves toward [Gulf] security cooperation."
中东研究所的哈里森补充说，从长远来看，更有可能的是海湾国家最终与伊朗达成某种谅解。
What's more likely in the long term is Gulf states eventually coming to some kind of understanding with Iran.
“海湾国家明白，它们可能无法仅从华盛顿购买安全，而将不得不在一定程度上通过与德黑兰建立某种关系来‘购买’安全，”哈里森说。“这是不可避免的。地理因素占主导地位。”他补充说，这种互不侵犯协议具体会是什么样子还有待观察。哈里森总结道，这就是为什么海湾领导人目前的一大担忧是，冲突再次升级，以至于通往某种外交途径的道路彻底断绝。
"The Gulf states understand that they probably can't buy their security only from Washington, and that they're going to have to buy it, to some degree, by some kind of a relationship with Tehran," the MEI's Harrison added. "It's inevitable. Geography reigns." What that sort of non-aggression pact looks like remains to be seen, he added. That's why one of the big concerns for Gulf leaders now, is the conflict escalating again to a point where the path back to some sort of diplomacy is lost, Harrison concluded.