美国中期选举中预期的蓝色浪潮变成了海啸，其政治涟漪将波及海湾。
The anticipated blue wave in the US midterm elections turned into a tsunami, and its political ripples will reach the Gulf.
这场选举是对总统唐纳德·特朗普在生活成本上涨、伊朗战争及其执政行为上的斥责。但这是否会让他更不愿升级中东冲突，则是另一回事。正如前拜登政府高级顾问阿莫斯·霍克斯坦本周在阿布扎比所说，国会可以控制预算、举行听证会并要求答案——但“美国总统制定外交政策”。海湾国家面临两个风险。特朗普因国内制约而受挫，可能会对伊朗动用更多武力，以试图巩固自己的政治遗产。
The election was a rebuke to President Donald Trump over rising living costs, the Iran war, and his conduct in office. But whether that makes him less inclined to escalate the Middle East conflict is another matter. As Amos Hochstein, a former senior Biden administration adviser, put it in Abu Dhabi this week, Congress can control budgets, hold hearings, and demand answers — but “the president of the United States does foreign policy.”Gulf states face two risks. Trump, frustrated by domestic constraints, could use more force against Iran to try to secure his legacy.
与此同时，民主党人可能利用其国会权力，揭露海湾投资者与总统亲属及关联人士——包括贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫家族——之间交易中令人不安的细节。
At the same time, Democrats could use their congressional powers to expose uncomfortable details of deals between Gulf investors and the president’s relatives and associates, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s family.
不过，也有一些利好。海湾在选举中几乎未成为议题，而选民对降低价格的诉求与地区结束战争、恢复霍尔木兹海峡正常航运的努力相一致。
There is also some upside, though. The Gulf barely featured in the election, and voters’ demand for lower prices aligns with regional efforts to end the war and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
海湾君主国享有提前数十年规划而无需受选举烦扰的奢侈。这使它们能够在华盛顿建立跨越两党的深厚制度性关系。主权财富基金在奥巴马和拜登政府期间投入了数十亿美元，而如今的一些人工智能合作是在特朗普重返白宫之前谈判达成的。
Gulf monarchies have the luxury of planning decades ahead without the nuisance of elections. This allows them to build deep, institutional relationships in Washington that span both parties. Sovereign wealth funds deployed billions during the Obama and Biden administrations, and some of today’s AI cooperation was negotiated before Trump returned to office.
一个选举议题甚至可能有利于海湾：随着美国选民拥抱数据中心“邻避主义”，海湾国家可以提供廉价能源、空置土地和更快的许可审批。
One election issue could even favor the Gulf: As US voters embrace data center NIMBYism, Gulf states can offer cheap energy, empty land, and faster permits.
最后，海湾的人权记录并非竞选议题，这与以色列在加沙的战争及其对待巴勒斯坦人的方式不同——后者已招致两党批评。但如果对特朗普圈子的调查使海湾关系受到审视，这一问题可能会重新浮现。
Finally, the Gulf’s human rights records weren’t a campaign issue, unlike Israel’s war in Gaza and its treatment of Palestinians, which have attracted bipartisan criticism. But this issue could resurface if investigations into Trump’s circle put Gulf connections under scrutiny.