With control of Congress at stake, Telegraph reporters and correspondents take a closer look at the contests that matter most, who is best placed to win and what the outcome could mean for the rest of Donald Trump’s second term.

Our writers weigh up what today’s results could mean for Donald Trump’s presidency and America’s political future What will happen The blue wave will be enough for the Democrats to gain control of the House of Representatives, finishing with around 235-240 seats. The Republicans will retain a narrow Senate majority of 51-49 but lose some big seats on the way, with Texas, Iowa and Kansas all flipping blue.

Donald Trump has not done enough to convince voters that he and the Republicans are serious about the cost of living. Mr Trump swept to office promising to bring down prices and end forever wars. Yet Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday with inflation higher than it was two years ago, and a fresh war raging in the Middle East. Democrats don’t have to say much to hammer that message home.

What it means Losing the House will plunge Washington into political deadlock because the US president will struggle to pass legislation against a Democratic majority, threatening to undo his remaining domestic priorities.

Mr Trump will turn his attention increasingly towards foreign policy, where the White House enjoys greater freedom to act without congressional approval. Expect more attempts at peacemaking, deals with Russia and a second meeting with Kim Jong-un.

I think the Democrats will take the Senate. Maybe 52 to 48. My guess is that they flip Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas and – yes – even Texas. Then they will pick up another of the very finely poised races, maybe Alaska or Iowa.

Democrats know the polls have been wrong before. They have girded themselves for another round of disappointment. Until the last few days, not many would say out loud what the latest surveys of public sentiment suggest – a “blue wave” is on the way.

I have been driving around Georgia and Michigan. Put simply, every time you fill up your tank – it’s an for the Democrats. Then, Mr Trump has picked poor candidates. The Republicans, really, should hold Texas. But Senate candidate Ken Paxton is so mired in scandal, you couldn’t make it up.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have plumped for moderate, centrist candidates in the most competitive races. There is a former fisherwoman and a pastor on the slate. Strategists hope the “normal” people will persuade voters that the party is no longer in hock to the woke groupthink of 2024.

Mr Trump has spent much of the last year acting like a lame duck president – focused on fighting foreign wars and redesigning the White House.

He may pursue both more aggressively if Republicans lose both houses of Congress and leave him with little else to do. There are reports in the newspapers that he plans a new, fierce round of fighting with Iran, alongside Benjamin Netanyahu, who has just suffered his own electoral snub.

My guess is he will – eventually – point the finger of blame at the people whose names actually were in front of voters. Let me add this caveat. These are only my gut feelings. And, like the polls, my gut has been wrong before.

Tuesday won’t be a good night for Republicans because the midterms rarely are for an incumbent party: the question is how bad it will be. Overall, I think the Democrats will take back the House, flipping around 20 seats, and – though with much less confidence – eke out a narrow majority in the Senate.

The basic rule of the midterms is that it acts as a referendum on the president. While Democrats are broadly unpopular, most voters will be issuing a judgment on Mr Trump – whose approval rating is a long, long way underwater.

The president has nevertheless sought to make the election about himself. Instead of clawing back wavering Republicans, he has used his platform as president to make bizarre comments about the physique of Senator Jon Husted, and promise a $5,000 “dividend” for US citizens, which has been widely ridiculed and largely dismissed.

His own base has been whittled down since he swept to victory in 2024. Having promised no new wars, he went to war with Iran; voters are worried about the inflation he pledged to end on day one; and high-profile Maga figures have been disillusioned by his refusal to release the Epstein files.

The Senate is a much harder political landscape for Democrats because the route to victory runs through “Trump country” – the states which voted, some by double digits, for the president in 2024. But Republican concerns are clear from how they have rushed key figures and ploughed money into races that should never have been competitive, like Kansas.

Whether the Republicans lose both chambers or just the House, Mr Trump’s fourth quarter will be hampered by gridlock in a Congress filled with hostile Democrats and Republicans who see his long period of party dominance coming to an end.

The president will largely have to give up on passing legislation, and instead rely on executive orders, leading to more of the long-running and costly legal battles that have characterised his second term. As long as the Iran war continues, the president – after the new Congress is seated in January – may find his hands further tied if they seek to cut off funding for an unpopular war.

Congress will probably hold investigations into senior administration officials and members of the Trump family. There are whispers on the Hill that the president himself could be subpoenaed over the investigation into the Epstein Files, teeing up another legal battle.

Both Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, the most senior Democrats in the House and Senate, face a battle to shore up their positions with the election of candidates who are sceptical or openly hostile to their leadership.

The GOP will definitely not keep control of the House. On balance, they’re going to lose control of the Senate. I would put it down as 53-54 seats, leaning towards the Democrats. It won’t be by a wide margin.

However, we won’t have a definite number for a couple of weeks, because people are going to ask for recounts. There will be a blue wave, but I don’t buy the idea there will be a blue tsunami.

For the tight states, the ones that will be hard-fought – Maine, Michigan, and Alaska – all are going to have recounts.

There are two main reasons. The polling this time around is pretty accurate. I know early voting is notorious for not being the best measure because it favours Democrats, but in some states it is clear the party has effectively mobilised early voters.

There are suggestions they are turning people out at the rate of a presidential election, whereas the Republicans are turning people out at the rate of a normal midterm, which will be bad for them.

In 2024, Mr Trump put together a coalition of voters that pollsters missed out on: black and Latino men who are low-propensity voters and not registered voters. They just turned up on the day.

As a general rule, voters don’t turn up to vote in midterms, including those groups. But more importantly, what motivated them in 2024 to vote for Trump, the cost of living, is going to motivate people to stay home.

The races that people have been focused on have been these big progressive races. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan is one: I think he would be a serious presidential contender if he wins. What is interesting this time around is how the Democrats have been putting together their campaigns.

They have been very smart about using a form of economic populism, the same winning strategy that Mr Trump used. Democrats have also been making a lot of hay out of the Iran war and how that is affecting the affordability crisis.

That’s a blueprint for Democrats in 2028: Fight on an economic populist model, fight on a cost-of-living platform, fight on an anti-billionaire platform, fight on an anti-AI platform, and fight on an anti-data-centre platform.

My money is on a blue tsunami. So, I’m giving the Democrats both control of the House (easy: they only need to gain four more seats to reach the 218-seat majority) and the Senate, the latter now within the margin of error, but possible that the GOP loses all but one of the swing contests. Final result: Senate Dem control by 53-47.

I base this on a mix of polls and instinct. The Republicans do have advantages: gerrymandering in the House, big ad spend and historic undercounting of Trump voters in polls. The surprise endorsement of the GOP candidate in Michigan by the Democrats’ primary rival throws that race into confusion – though she sounds like South Park’s Butters and has struggled to explain her action. Odd woman.

Whatever: the final New York Times/Sienna poll puts the Dems ahead in all seven swing contests, including deep red Kansas. This is remarkable, but easy to understand.

The cost of living is high thanks to Trump’s Iran war, the administration is clearly sitting on a lot of scandals, the anti-war Right is disengaged, several GOP candidates have made mistakes, Trump endorsed a dud in Texas.

If midterm races are about enthusiasm, and given that the incumbent president is at a low of 31 per cent, it’s easy to foresee a Democrat advantage.

It’s a given that a Democrat Congress will subpoena and investigate the administration. Impeachment would be foolish: they won’t have the Senate majority, and it’s a profound waste of time. Trump might dispute the results: the administration is doing its best to cast doubt on the election in Alaska.

The paranoid predict Trump will nuke Iran, but while his attack earlier this year was a surprise, his actual prosecution of the war fits a pattern: he doesn’t want to commit to an invasion.

Trump cares about certain headline measures: the stock market, gas prices, unemployment etc. All would be damaged by further action abroad. So, let’s hope cooler heads in the administration prevail (looking at JD Vance here) and the president reorients towards domestic policy.

There is a chance the Republicans could snatch a lukewarm Senate win from the jaws of defeat. There is, of course, no chance they will win the House, but the Democrats “storming ahead” in Senate races are doing it by just a handful of points in most cases, which is within the margin of error.

Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and – I’m sorry to burst the bubble – but even Texas can all reasonably be described as too close to call. It is possible that the GOP finds itself more comfortable than expected.

US polls are often wrong, and Donald Trump is full of surprises. If history has taught us anything, it is not to underestimate the power of Teflon Don – and yet, every time, what do we do?

I don’t think the American public has forgotten the abysmal performance of the Democrats in 2024, or when the Biden administration was in power, for that matter. Early voter turnout is looking good for Democrats, but Republicans – and particularly Maga Republicans – don’t really vote like that. The majority of Trump-leaning voters are more sophisticated and politically engaged than most give them credit for.

A slightly better-than-expected margin in the Senate will be more than enough to reinvigorate the US president. We will never hear the end of it.

It will buoy him to come out fighting against Democrats. Expect a flurry of appointments to show off his remaining power: judges, ambassadors and a big, fat cabinet reshuffle. Investigations brought against Trump allies, including Elon Musk, will be hampered at every turn by the White House. Expect many, many more courthouse ping-pong matches.

Nevertheless, I expect to see Mr Trump continuing with his preference for foreign policy. Even with the Senate in his clutches, he is still hurtling towards the end of his presidency and will be looking for areas where he can quickly craft a legacy. Perhaps it will inspire him to actually end one of those many wars he is banging on about?

I expect the Democrats will triumph, but that the “blue wave” might not be the tsunami they hope. (225 to 217). As for the Senate, I think Democrats will narrowly clinch the chamber: 53-47.

The real fight is for the Senate. Democrats have an edge in almost all seven battlegrounds. However, their narrow leads could disappear if polls have underestimated the strength of Republican support as they have done in recent election cycles. The fact that Texas and Kansas are even up for grabs should tell Trump enough about disenchantment with his policies in former red strongholds.

What does it mean If Democrats take back both chambers, the verdict will be damning for Mr Trump. He will spend his final two years as a lame duck, fretting about his makeover of Washington DC. His legacy may not recover. Republicans are already preparing for a post-Trump America.