截至11月1日，已有超过5000万张提前选票投出，美国中期选举的热度已堪比大选年。
With more than 50 million early votes cast by Nov 1, the energy of the US midterm elections has matched a presidential year.
民调显示，民主党有望获益，因为选民明显不满，原因是通胀和伊朗战争的影响。本次选举的其他张力还包括财富高度集中以及对数据中心的反弹。
Polls suggest a possible Democratic gain as voters are clearly unhappy, due to inflation and the impact of the Iran war. Other tensions of the election include concentrated wealth and backlash over data centres.
AI生成 佐治亚州马里埃塔——“中期”选举这个称呼似乎名不副实。实际上，几乎没有什么让人感觉这是“中间”阶段的选举。
AI generated MARIETTA, Georgia – The “midterm” elections feel like a misnomer. Little about them feels intermediate, really.
人们紧张地关注着每一份新民调，将沸腾的不满反复计算、反复权衡：一切迹象表明，国家正准备做出裁决。
Nervous attention is being paid to each new poll, the bubbling discontent counted and recounted: everything suggests a country preparing to pass judgment.
就在两年前惨败、士气低落的民主党，如今正盯着那些早已被视为共和党囊中之物的选战中的胜利。得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州、爱荷华州和阿拉斯加州——直到几周前还是铁板一块的“红州”——现在似乎都呈现出一片模糊的“蓝色”，对一个在2024年贺锦丽败选后仍无领袖的政党而言，胜利触手可及。
The Democrats, defeated and dispirited just two years ago, are eyeing victories in races long conceded to the Republicans. Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska – unassailably red until just weeks ago – now seem a hazy blue, within reach for a party still leaderless after Kamala Harris was bested in 2024.
80岁的唐纳德·特朗普总统正以一种近乎超人的精力驱动自己，如果这不同时也显得绝望的话。在通往11月3日投票日的一个月里，他已举办了25多场集会。值得注意的是，大多数集会都在红州举行。在选举前夕，他将在五小时的马拉松式活动中举行七场“电话集会”——虚拟活动。但我们看到的是“蓝色浪潮”吗？
At 80, President Donald Trump is driving himself with an effort that would be almost superhuman, if it were not also desperate. In the month leading up to the Nov 3 vote, he has addressed more than 25 rallies. Tellingly, most have been in red states. On the eve of the elections, he will address seven “tele-rallies” – virtual events – in a five-hour marathon. But are we looking at a blue wave?
这是一个不精确的术语，但一些民调专家将“浪潮选举”定义为获胜政党在普选票上领先对手约6个百分点或以上。
It’s an imprecise term, but some pollsters define a wave election as one where the winning party takes the popular vote by around six points or more.
目前的RCP民调平均值——即民调的民调——显示，民主党在通用国会选票测试中领先8.5个百分点，这是衡量选民希望哪个党控制国会的一个简单指标。
The current RCP poll average – a poll of polls – puts the Democrats 8.5 points ahead in the generic ballot, a simple measure of which party voters want to see in Congress.
9个百分点的领先优势将造就一个具有历史意义的民主党之夜；超过10个百分点的领先在现代史上从未出现过。
A nine-point win would make for a historic Democratic night; anything over a 10-point win has not been seen in the modern era.
还有一个衡量标准：有多少席位易主。在435个席位的众议院中，目前的席位分布为共和党218席、民主党214席，另有1名独立议员和2个空缺席位。
There is another measure: how many seats change hands. In the 435-member House of Representatives, the balance now is 218-214 in favour of the Republicans, with one independent and two vacancies.
近年来最大的一波浪潮——一场“红色海啸”——出现在2010年，即贝拉克·奥巴马总统任内的首次中期选举。当时，共和党较2008年选举净增64个众议院席位和6个参议院席位。
The largest wave in recent times – a red tsunami – crested in 2010, the first midterms of the Barack Obama presidency. Back then, the Republicans gained 64 House seats and six Senate seats from the previous elections in 2008.
最大的“蓝色海啸”出现在2018年，即特朗普政府执政首年的中期选举，当时民主党在众议院净增41个席位，但在参议院失去1个席位。
The biggest blue wave came in 2018, the first midterms under a Trump administration, when Democrats won 41 additional House seats while ceding one in the Senate.
这一次，两院控制权均在争夺之中。在100个参议院席位中，有35个席位改选，目前共和党以53比47占优，其中7个席位可能决定控制权。
This time both chambers are within reach. In the 35 seats up for grabs in the 100-member Senate which is split 53-47 now in favour of the Republicans, seven could decide control.
本季最后一份《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，民主党在所有这7个州均领先——密歇根州、堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州、缅因州、俄亥俄州，以及优势较小的阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州。
The final NYT/Siena poll of the season said the Democrats were ruling them all – Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.
但备受推崇的政治趋势分析机构“库克政治报告”表示，两党均保留着通往多数党地位的可行路径。它将同样的7个州列为“势均力敌”，同时称民主党为“略占优势”。参议院控制权极有可能由单一席位决定。
But the Cook Political Report, a well regarded reader of political trends, said both parties retain a viable path to majority. It listed the same seven states as “toss-ups” while describing the Democrats as “slight favourites”. There’s a good chance that the control of the Senate could be clinched by a single seat.
在众议院，218个席位即构成多数，库克报告称民主党在222个席位上占优，另有18场竞争属于势均力敌。
In the House where 218 seats confer majority, Cook said that Democrats are favoured in 222 seats while 18 races are toss-ups.
在过去几周走访2024年支持特朗普的州份——包括宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州和佐治亚州——期间，我遇到多位选民，他们的不满无需诱导便自然流露。
During travels over the last few weeks in states that chose Trump in 2024, including Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, I met several voters whose unhappiness needed little prompting to find expression.
“对他来说变好了，对我们变坏了，”68岁的特内迪亚·托马斯说，她是宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特县的一名民主党选民，该县是共和党大本营，特朗普在2024年选举中赢得了该县。
“It’s changed for the better for him, for the worse for us,” said Tenedia Thomas, 68, a Democratic voter in the Republican stronghold of Lancaster county in Pennsylvania which Trump won in the 2024 elections.
罪魁祸首是通货膨胀——尤其是食品、燃料和住房价格上涨——吞噬了大多数家庭的工资增长，还有特朗普发动的伊朗战争，推高了柴油价格，并扰乱了农业腹地的供应链经济。
The villain is inflation – especially in food, fuel and housing – that has swallowed wage gains for most households, and Trump’s Iran war that has driven up the price of diesel and upended supply chain economics across the agricultural heartland.
“我们不需要看报纸才知道这些，”托马斯说。“我们能看到自己现在在杂货上花了多少钱，能买到多少东西。我们正亲身经历这一切。”她说，尽管日常必需品成本上涨，宾夕法尼亚州的最低工资仍维持在每小时7.25美元（9.30新元）。
“That’s nothing that we have to read in a newspaper,” said Thomas. “We can see how much money we’re now spending on groceries, how little we can buy. We’re living it.”The minimum wage in Pennsylvania remains at US$7.25 (S$9.30) an hour despite rising costs of daily necessities, she said.
“我认为自己很穷，靠发薪水过日子，”托马斯说。“我刚遭遇一场车祸，你可以看到我的锁骨突出来了。我请不了假，因为还得付账单和房租，因为经济管理得太烂了，以至于一个68岁的老太太还得出来打工。”在一小时车程外的约克县，该县在2024年大选中以25个百分点的优势支持特朗普，约翰（拒绝透露全名）正在发起他自己的反击。他站在市中心街角，对着过往车辆挥舞着一块牌子。牌子上写着：“投票赶走每一个共和党人。”
“I consider myself poor, I live from pay cheque to pay cheque,” said Thomas. “I was just in a car accident, you can see my collarbone is protruding. I can’t take time off because I still have to pay bills and rent, because the handling of the economy is so bad that a 68-year-old woman has to work.”An hour’s drive away, in York county, which backed Trump by 25 points in 2024, John, who declined to give his full name, was mounting his own fightback. Standing at a downtown street corner, he swung a sign at passing motorists. “Vote out every Republican,” it read.
他告诉我他自己的民调结果。“三分之二的人向我竖大拇指，三分之一的人向我竖中指。”这位民主党活动人士说，共和党人必须被“震醒”。但并非所有人都欣赏他的努力。
He gave me his own poll. “Two-thirds of them give me a thumbs-up, a third flip me the bird.”A Democratic Party activist, he said the Republicans had to be “shaken awake”. But not everyone appreciated his effort.
“这家伙说我不能待在这儿，因为影响他的生意，”他指着身后的汽修店说。“但这是公共人行道，我不在乎他说什么，”约翰说。店主是共和党人，说他要报警。
“This guy here says I can’t be here because it impacts his business,” he said, pointing at the auto shop behind him. “But it’s a public sidewalk, I don’t care what he says,” John said. The owner, a Republican, said he was calling the police.
这场剑拔弩张的争执，提醒人们普遍担忧选举日安全，也凸显了共和党对舞弊投票的夸大恐惧。
The testy exchange was a reminder of widespread public concern about election day safety and exaggerated Republican fears of fraudulent voting.
在佐治亚州马里埃塔，36岁的店长约纳斯·莱马说，他利用休假日人生第一次去投票。
In Marietta, Georgia, 36-year-old shop manager Yonas Lemma said he had used his day off to vote for the first time in his life.
他投给民主党参议员候选人，却投给共和党州长候选人；这种分裂的偏好，反映了这个摇摆州内部的忠诚分裂——该州在2020年抛弃特朗普，却在2024年以微弱优势再次支持了他。
He voted for a Democrat as a senator but for a Republican as his governor; the split preference reflecting the divided loyalties in a swing state that narrowly backed Trump in 2024 after dumping him in 2020.
这一偏好很可能导致乔恩·奥索夫连任，他是唯一一位在支持特朗普的州寻求连任的民主党参议员。他所在政党的州长候选人基莎·兰斯·博托姆斯要成为美国首位黑人女州长，道路更为艰难。
It’s a preference likely to result in the re-election of Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic senator seeking re-election in a state that voted for Trump. His party’s gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms faces a harder path to become America’s first black woman governor.
对莱姆来说，决定性因素是奥索夫扩大医疗保健获取途径的承诺。他说自己有好几年没有任何健康保险。
For Lemma, the clincher was Ossoff’s promise to expand access to healthcare. He said he had gone without any health insurance for several years.
“从26岁，在我父亲的健康保险覆盖期满后，到32岁，我都买不起保险，”他说，并补充道：“我并不是社会主义者。”这一表态反映出这些选举中更广泛的紧张关系。
“From 26, when I aged out of coverage under my father’s health insurance and until I turned 32, I couldn’t afford insurance,” he said, adding: “Not that I am a socialist.”The qualification speaks to a broader tension in these elections.
盖洛普9月的一项民调显示，43%的美国人现在对社会主义持正面看法。尽管社会主义在公众好感度上仍落后于资本主义和自由企业，但已超越大企业。对财富集中化的愤怒已成为中期选举竞选中切实的一部分。
A Gallup poll in September showed that 43% of Americans now have a positive view of socialism. It still trails capitalism and free enterprise in public favourability, but ranks ahead of big business. Anger at concentrated wealth has become a tangible part of the midterm campaign.
我在宾夕法尼亚州亲眼看到了这一点，而且是字面意义上的。一块标语牌上写着：“为医疗保健出资，而非亿万富翁。”另一块写着：“向富人征税。”
I found it writ large, literally, in Pennsylvania. “Fund healthcare, not billionaires”, one sign read. “Tax the rich” was another.
加利福尼亚州选民将在11月3日对全球首个“亿万富翁税”进行投票，该提案拟对亿万富翁征收一次性5%的税。如果获得多数票，预计将把1000亿美元的收入投入医疗保健。
Californians on Nov 3 will also cast a vote on the world’s first “billionaire tax”, a measure to levy a one-time, 5% tax on billionaires. If it musters a majority, it would funnel a projected US$100 billion in revenues into healthcare.
这是美国公共生活的一个新转折点，审视谁从美国的繁荣中受益，谁为之付出。它推动了初选中进步派和民主社会主义候选人的崛起，包括密歇根州参议院竞选中的阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛德。他在10月下旬的多项民调中领先共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯，领先幅度大约在2到7个百分点之间。
It is a new turn in American public life, a scrutiny on who benefits from American prosperity and who pays for it. It has propelled progressive and democratic socialist candidates in primaries, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s senatorial race. He leads Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 2 to 7 points across late October surveys.
埃尔赛德的竞选活动也显示出新兴联盟的脆弱性。抢夺头条新闻，并迫使他陷入被动的，是他初选中落败的对手海莉·斯蒂文斯的一个临时决定。她于11月1日宣布将投票支持罗杰斯，部分原因是埃尔赛德未能撤下她形容为反犹太主义的政治广告。
El-Sayed’s campaign also shows the vulnerability of nascent coalitions. Stealing the headlines, and forcing him into the defensive, was a last-minute decision by his defeated primary rival Haley Stevens. She announced on Nov 1 that she would vote for Rogers, citing in part El-Sayed’s failure to pull a political ad she described as anti-semitic.
画面中，两个人物正在杂货店讨论高物价。一人表示，美国家庭买不起鸡蛋和香蕉等基本物品，因为纳税人的钱反而被输送到以色列，用于资助“杀害巴勒斯坦人”。
It shows two characters discussing high prices in a grocery store. One says American families cannot afford basic items like eggs and bananas because taxpayer money is instead being funnelled to Israel to fund “killing Palestinians”.
史蒂文斯的决定可能会影响一些选民，该州拥有相当规模的阿拉伯裔美国人和犹太裔选民。在其他地方，关于财富的争论已演变为对数据中心的反对。
Steven’s decision could tilt some voters in a state which has a sizeable Arab American and Jewish electorate. Elsewhere, the argument over wealth has taken shape in a backlash against data centres.
在美国经济在很大程度上因数十亿美元投入人工智能基础设施而增长之际，科技亿万富翁和华尔街金融家可能获得更多收益的前景，引发了正为不断上涨的生活成本苦苦挣扎的选民的不满。
At a time when the US economy is growing largely because of billions invested in AI infrastructure, the prospect of more gains for tech billionaires and Wall Street financiers has stirred resentment among voters struggling with a rising cost of living.
在俄亥俄州首府哥伦布周边，该地已成为美国最大的数据中心枢纽之一，这种情绪呈现出一场草根反抗的色彩，并可能影响全州范围内的政治竞选。“不在我的后院”是一种常见情绪，常见于宾夕法尼亚州的庭院标语上，宾夕法尼亚州也是超大规模数据中心的所在地之一。
Around Ohio’s capital Columbus, which has become one of the country’s largest data centre hubs, it has acquired shades of a grassroots revolt with consequences for statewide political races. Not in my back yard, is a common sentiment, often found fluttering gently as a yard sign, across Pennsylvania, another home to hyperscalers.
希望成为该红州首位印度裔美国人州长的维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，支持数据中心的积极扩张，称其对俄亥俄州的经济未来是一件“好事”。对手埃米·阿克顿则将自己塑造为该行业的严格监管者，利用公众对电费上涨、噪音污染和水资源短缺的不满。
Vivek Ramaswamy, hoping to be the red state’s first Indian American governor, has supported the aggressive expansion of data centres, calling them a “good thing” for Ohio’s economic future. Rival Amy Acton has positioned herself as a strict regulator of the industry, tapping into public frustration over rising electricity bills, noise pollution and water scarcity.
她主张对新建数据中心实行有条件的暂停令。他则主张为数据中心附近的选民提供经济补偿，而不是停止建设。
She advocates a conditional moratorium on new data centres. He calls for financial offsets to compensate voters in the vicinity of a data centre rather than halting construction.
在拉马斯瓦米试图挽救其日渐式微的竞选活动的小镇酒吧不远处，矗立着一块支持数据中心的广告牌，由“俄亥俄州连接组织”放置，该倡导团体由代表谷歌、Meta和微软等科技巨头的全国数据中心联盟创建。
Not far from a small town pub where Ramaswamy pushed to revive his flagging campaign, stood a pro-data centre billboard placed by Connected Ohio, an advocacy group created by the national Data Center Coalition which represents tech giants like Google, Meta and Microsoft.
然而，即使选民质疑财富的影响，中期选举竞选仍耗费了创纪录的资金，成为美国历史上最昂贵的选举周期，政治广告支出预计将达到116亿美元。
Yet even as voters question the influence of wealth, the midterm campaign has consumed record sums in what is the most expensive election cycle in American history, with political advertising projected to reach US$11.6 billion.
这超过了2024年总统选举周期的112亿美元和2022年中期选举的89亿美元。
That’s more than the US$11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle and US$8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms.
尽管花费巨大，在这个深度两极分化的国家，人们的想法大多已定。研究表明，昂贵的广告对说服选民作用不大。
For all that spending, minds remain largely set in the deeply polarised nation. Studies have shown that pricey commercials do little to persuade voters.
投票率是这些选举中最大的悬念，乔治·华盛顿大学历史学家、政治管理学教授马特·达勒克说。“民主党现在是更可靠的选民、受过高等教育的政党——投票率较低的选举往往会有利于他们。”这颠倒了共和党长期以来的优势，共和党历史上一直受益于更可靠的支持者，而民主党则一直难以让那些不那么忠诚的选民去投票。
Turnout is the biggest question in these elections, said Matt Dallek, a historian and professor of political management at George Washington University. “The Democrats are now the party of the more reliable voters, the highly educated – a lower turnout election will tend to favour them.”That reverses a familiar advantage for Republicans who have historically benefited from more dependable supporters while the Democrats have struggled to bring their less committed voters to the polls.
“而且，有轶事证据表明，一些共和党人已经不再感受到特朗普的魔力了。那些喜欢他的政策、认为他对经济有好处的人，现在只是感到沮丧，”达勒克说。“他们不想投民主党的票，也不想投共和党的票，”他补充道。
“And, there’s anecdotal evidence that some Republicans are just not feeling the Trump magic anymore. Those who liked his policies, thought he’d be good for the economy, they’re just deflated,” said Dallek. “They don’t want to vote for a Democrat but they don’t want to vote for a Republican,” he added.
“所以，危险在于他们不去投票，这就是为什么我们看到堪萨斯州这样的红州也岌岌可危。”他说，迹象指向民主党的反弹。“问题不是：民主党会不会赢，而是他们会赢多大？”俄亥俄州扬斯敦——阿克顿的故乡——的选民伍迪·比克利解释了民调人员的紧张，尽管共识已倾向于“蓝色浪潮”。
“So, the danger is they don’t turn out, that’s why we’re seeing red states like Kansas being on a knife’s edge.”Signs pointed to a Democrat comeback, he said. “The question is not: Are Democrats going to win, but how big is their win?”Voters like Woody Bickley in Youngstown, the home town of Acton, explain the pollsters’ nervousness even as the consensus has settled on a blue wave.
“我还没决定，但很难甚至考虑投民主党的票；他们对美国经济构成危险。但特朗普也几乎没做出什么好事，”比克利说，他是一名钢铁工人，自称是无党派人士，2020年投了拜登的票，2024年又回到了特朗普阵营。“我很纠结，这取决于我在排队等候时在想什么，”他说。
“I have not decided yet but it’s hard to even think about voting for a Democrat; they are a danger to the US economy. But then Trump’s hardly done any good,” said Bickley, a steelworker who described himself as an independent who voted for Biden in 2020 before he returned to Trump in 2024. “I’m torn, it depends on what I am thinking when I am waiting in the line,” he said.
库克政治报告的分析师预见的是一股“红色暗流”，而非“蓝色浪潮”。这更能描述本次选举的实情：共和党被其自身感到幻灭的支持者拖入深渊，而非选民通过投票肯定民主党。
Analysts at Cook foresee a “red undertow” rather than a blue wave. It is a better descriptor of the elections, the Republicans being pulled under by their own disillusioned supporters rather than a vote affirming the Democrats.
无论哪种情况，共和党失去国会多数席位都将对特朗普构成一定制约，其影响将波及华盛顿之外。民主党控制国会可能会让特朗普在资金和政治层面更难维持对伊朗的战争。
Either way, a loss of Republican congressional majority will impose some limits on Trump, with consequences rippling beyond Washington. Democratic control of Congress could make the Iran war harder for Trump to fund and sustain politically.
例如，如果裁决被解读为对数据中心的反弹，将拖累韩国和台湾生产的芯片和服务器的需求。
A verdict that reads as a backlash against data centres, for instance, will drag down demand for chips and servers being manufactured in South Korea and Taiwan.
关于特朗普对华谈判实力的质疑将再度升温。他还会如期于2026年出席在深圳举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会，并第三次会见中国国家主席习近平吗？民主党会迫使他在待决的140亿美元对台军售案上就范吗？
Questions will renew over Trump’s negotiating strength vis a vis China. Will he still show up in Shenzhen for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit where he is set to meet President Xi Jinping for a third time in 2026? Will the Democrats force his hand on the pending US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan?
许多变数掌握在比克利这样的选民手中。他们会坚持党派路线，还是会背离党派？
A lot rests with voters like Bickley. Will they toe the party line or cross it?