
民主党“蓝色海啸”引发的冲击波周三席卷全球能源市场。这场中选大败让民主党夺得众参两院控制权,并终结了共和党在至少五个州长府的统治,其影响在一场重创唐纳德·特朗普总统所在政党及其政策的历史性选举后逐渐清晰。影响令人震惊。
Shock waves from the Democratic blue tsunami cascaded through global energy markets on Wednesday. The impacts from a midterm rout that swept Democrats into power in the House and Senate, while ending Republican rule in at least five governors’ mansions, is coming into focus after a historic election bludgeoned President Donald Trump’s party and its policies. The effects are shocking.
为美国经济提供动力并推动电力需求飙升的人工智能竞赛,突然面临重大路障。曾承诺对数据中心实施暂停令的民主党人,在得克萨斯、俄亥俄和佐治亚等关键州赢得了州长选举。银行巨头安联估计,47吉瓦的规划数据中心项目现在面临暂停令风险。
The AI race, which is powering the U.S. economy and sending electricity demand soaring, suddenly faces major roadblocks. Democrats who have promised to impose moratoriums on data centers won gubernatorial elections in key states like Texas, Ohio and Georgia. The banking giant, Allianz, reckons that 47 gigawatts of planned data center projects now face moratorium risks.
亚洲制造商担忧选举结果是否会导致半导体、电池和变压器订单放缓。在欧洲,许多领导人庆祝民主党获胜,尽管他们对美国气候和关税政策发生改变抱有的希望有限。
Manufacturers in Asia wondered if the electoral outcome would lead to a slowdown in orders for semiconductors, batteries and transformers. In Europe, many leaders celebrated Democrats’ victory, even as they expressed limited hope for a change in U.S. climate and tariff policy.
一批新生代民主党人即将进驻华盛顿。他们较少关注气候变化,更关注负担能力和根除腐败。《政治报》回顾了10位在关键参议院竞选中获胜的民主党人的胜选演说。无人直接提及气候变化,尽管密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德承诺保护选民免受“污浊不堪、难以呼吸的空气”侵害,佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫提到了“被毒害的星球”。伊朗战争的疑云笼罩着能源市场。尽管民主党大胜,升级或降级冲突的决定权仍掌握在特朗普手中。该冲突是决定石油、汽油和柴油价格的最大因素。
A new generation of Democrats is bound for Washington. They are less focused on climate change and more focused on affordability and rooting out corruption. POLITICO reviewed the victory speeches of 10 Democrats in key Senate races. None mentioned climate change directly, though Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed pledged to defend voters from “air too putrid to breathe” and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff referenced “a poisoned planet.”Questions over the Iran war loom large over energy markets. The decision to escalate or deescalate remains with Trump, despite Democrats’ big win. The conflict is the biggest factor in determining the price of oil, gasoline and diesel.
周二的赢家包括来自堪萨斯州的一位牧师、来自得克萨斯州的一位神学院学生、来自南卡罗来纳州的一位儿科医生和来自缅因州的一位伐木工。这四人均翻转了共和党把持的参议院席位。
Tuesday’s winners include a pastor from Kansas, a seminarian from Texas, a pediatrician from South Carolina and a logger from Maine. All four flipped Republican-held Senate seats.
这些并非特朗普首个任期期间逃往联合国气候谈判的“抵抗运动”民主党人。他们也并非试图复活拜登政府应对气温上升的“全政府”路线。
These are not the “Resistance” Democrats that absconded to the United Nations climate talks during Trump’s first term. Nor are they seeking to resurrect the Biden administration’s “whole of government” approach to combating rising temperatures.
相反,他们通过说服深红州选民,承诺解决物价上涨、将金钱赶出政治、并与共和党合作,从而拿到了去华盛顿的入场券。
Instead, they punched a ticket to Washington by persuading voters in deeply red states that they will address rising costs, get money out of politics and work with Republicans.
“我将成为华盛顿特区与南卡罗来纳州之间的一堵砖墙,哪怕这意味着要站出来对抗我自己的政党,”南卡罗来纳州当选参议员安妮·安德鲁斯在胜选演讲中说。
“I will be a brick wall between Washington, D.C., and South Carolina, even when it means standing up to my own party,” South Carolina Sen.-elect Annie Andrews said in her victory speech.
“我想成为杰里·莫兰最好的朋友,”堪萨斯州当选参议员亚当·汉密尔顿对支持者说道,指的是该州资深共和党参议员。
"I want to be Jerry Moran's best friend", Kansas Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton told supporters, referring to the state’s senior Republican senator.
在大多数胜选演讲中,能源议题几乎未被提及。气候变化更是无人提起。以得克萨斯州当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科为例,他竞选时承诺遏制数据中心开发、支持可再生能源——以及石油天然气。
In most victory speeches, energy barely registered. Climate change wasn’t mentioned. Take Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico, who ran on a pledge to rein in data center development and support renewable energy — and oil and gas.
周二晚间,他几乎未触及该议题,仅表示:“仇恨无法降低我们的能源账单。”即使在少数更进步的民主党人获胜的竞选中,能源也被框架为生活成本问题。俄亥俄州当选参议员谢罗德·布朗将能源成本上涨归咎于大型科技公司、数据中心和伊朗战争。在密歇根州,埃尔-赛义德将能源信息聚焦于战争对能源价格的影响。“他们可能指着我的名字和信仰,但我们都知道,我的名字和信仰不是你们买不起汽油的原因,”将成为美国首位穆斯林参议员的埃尔-赛义德在胜选演讲中说。
He scarcely touched on the subject Tuesday evening, saying only, “Hate can't lower our energy bills." Even in the few races where more progressive Democrats prevailed, energy was framed as a cost-of-living issue. Ohio Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown blamed rising energy costs on Big Tech, data centers and the Iran war. In Michigan, El-Sayed focused his energy message on the war’s effect on energy prices "They might have been pointing to my name and my faith, but we all know that my name and my faith aren't the reason you can't afford your gas,” El-Sayed, who will become the nation’s first Muslim senator, said in his victory speech.
对气候变化的缄默,丝毫未减弱民主党最喧嚣的气候倡导者的热情。前华盛顿州州长杰伊·英斯利对《政治报》表示,该党很可能会加大力度推动清洁能源扩张,尤其是在州一级——民主党有望在亚利桑那、密歇根、内华达、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星全面掌控州政府。
The lack of climate mentions did little to dent the enthusiasm of Democrats' loudest climate advocates. The party is likely to ramp up efforts to expand clean energy, especially at the state level where Democrats are poised to seize full control of governments in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, former Washington Gov. Jay Inslee told POLITICO.
“我认为所有这些获胜的候选人在一定程度上都共享四个核心论点:成本、腐败、混乱和清洁能源,”因斯利说。2020年,前总统乔·拜登赢得白宫后,因斯利的气候政策成为了民主党的模板。“我们将会有了解获取更廉价、更清洁能源机遇本质的人。”
“I think all of these winning candidates shared, to some degree, four central arguments: cost, corruption, chaos, and clean energy,” said Inslee, whose climate policies became a template for Democrats when former President Joe Biden won the White House in 2020. “We're going to have people who understand the nature both of the opportunities of getting cheaper energy and cleaner energy.”
分析师称,纳斯达克指数和道琼斯指数在早盘交易中上涨,这反映了特朗普接受了选举结果。超大规模云服务商亚马逊、苹果和微软股价均上涨。
The Nasdaq and Dow were up in morning trading, a reflection of Trump’s acceptances of the results, analysts said. Hyperscalers Amazon, Apple and Microsoft were all up.
但在头条数字之下,数据中心繁荣的警示信号潜伏其中。SpaceX、英伟达和甲骨文等AI股票下跌,凸显了数据中心面临来自另一群获胜者的威胁:新当选的民主党州长。
But warning signs for the data center boom lurked beneath those headline figures. AI stocks like SpaceX, NVIDIA, and Oracle were down, underscoring the threats data centers face from another group of winners: new Democratic governors.
其中影响最大的是德克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨,她即将领导一个可能很快成为全国最大数据中心市场的州。在共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特要求对数据中心进行审计后,德克萨斯州的开发已经放缓。许多分析师原本预计,如果阿博特周二获胜,他会放宽这些措施。相反,他输给了伊诺霍萨,这增加了暂停时间可能更长的可能性。
The most consequential of those is Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa in Texas, who is now poised to lead what could soon become the country’s top data center market. Development had already slowed in Texas after Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, called for an audit on data centers. Many analysts had expected Abbott to relax those measures if he prevailed Tuesday. Instead he lost to Hinojosa, raising the prospect that the pause will be longer.
“她呼吁在德克萨斯州立法机构采取行动前,从第一天起实施暂停令,除非她另有表态,否则我看不出有什么理由不预期这将是她的实际行动,”TD Cowen分析师约翰·米勒说。
“She has called for a day one moratorium until the Texas legislative body acts, and I don't know why we wouldn't anticipate that to be her actual action until she says otherwise,” said John Miller, an analyst at TD Cowen.
放缓可能产生深远的经济影响。安联在致客户的报告中写道,预计四大超大规模云服务商今年将在AI基础设施建设上投资7250亿美元,高于去年的4100亿美元。这笔资金正在推动对新电厂、输电线路以及为数据中心发电和供电所需电网设备的投资。
A slowdown has potentially far reaching economic impacts. The four largest hyperscalers are expected to invest $725 billion in the AI buildout this year, up from $410 billion last year, Allianz wrote in a note to clients. That money is driving investments in new power plants, transmission lines and the grid equipment needed to generate and supply power to data centers.
“对投资者而言,风险不在于突然叫停,而在于建设过程变得更慢、成本更高且更加参差不齐,”安联写道。但对数据中心来说,并非全是坏消息。
“For investors, the risk is less an abrupt halt than a slower, costlier and more uneven buildout,” Allianz wrote. But it isn’t all bad for data centers.
在宾夕法尼亚州,民主党通过赢得州参议院控制权,完成了对行政、立法、司法三个分支政府的全面掌控。州长乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro,民主党人)呼吁开发商签署社区利益协议,并承担电网升级的费用。米勒表示,这可能会让数据中心的发展走上一条比近年来占主导地位的“西部荒野式”做法更可持续的道路。
In Pennsylvania, where Democrats completed a takeover of all three branches of government by winning the state Senate, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) has called on developers to sign community benefit agreements and cover the cost of grid upgrades. That might put data center development on a more sustainable path than the Wild West approach that has dominated in recent years, Miller said.
彭博新能源财经(BloombergNEF)分析师、拜登政府时期财政部前气候顾问伊桑·津德勒(Ethan Zindler)表示,民主党现在掌权了,也可能会软化立场。
Democrats may also soften their stance now that they are in power, said Ethan Zindler, an analyst at BloombergNEF and former climate counselor at the Treasury Department during the Biden administration.
他说:“我确实想知道,一旦很多人选举后的最初狂喜过去,是否会对这件事进行一次更安静的重新考量。我是说,州长们确实喜欢为自己的州吸引投资。”
“I do wonder that, you know, once we get past the initial euphoria from the election from a lot of folks, whether there'll be a quieter reconsideration of this,” he said. “I mean, governors do like to attract investment into their states.”