在地质学中，地震引发海啸。在美国政治中，一场“蓝色海啸”正在引发地震。在11月3日的中期选举中，民主党横扫各方。深红的得克萨斯州几十年来首次选出了一位蓝党参议员，深红的堪萨斯州近百年来首次选出蓝党参议员。截至本刊付印时，密西西比州的参议院竞选依然胶着难分——唐纳德·特朗普上次在此以23个百分点的优势获胜。
IN GEOLOGY, AN earthquake causes a tsunami. In American politics, a blue tsunami is causing an earthquake. In midterm elections on November 3rd the Democratic Party swept all before it. Ruby-red Texas elected a blue senator for the first time in decades and crimson Kansas for the first time in nearly a century. As we published this the Senate race in Mississippi, which Donald Trump last won by 23 percentage points, was too close to call.
在金融市场上，对这些剧变的反应，大体上只是耸耸肩。标普500大型股指数在选举翌晨小幅上扬，并以1.6%的涨幅收盘。十年期美国国债收益率微跌。美元略微走弱。
In financial markets, the response to these seismic events was, for the most part, a shrug. The S&P 500 index of large American firms ticked up by the morning after and ended the day 1.6% higher. Yields on ten-year Treasury bonds edged down. The dollar weakened by a touch.
投资者的冷淡反应可以理解。他们偏好确定性，而这股民主党浪潮排除了无休止的选举争议甚至宪法危机这一噩梦场景。随着共和党惨败的规模在选举之夜变得清晰，特朗普告诉《纽约时报》他将接受结果。可称之为“松一口气”效应。
Investors’ indifference is understandable. They like certainty, and the Democratic wave precluded the nightmare scenario of an endlessly contested election or even a constitutional crisis. After the scale of his Republican Party’s rout became clear on election night, Mr Trump told the New York Times that he would accept the results. Call it the “phew” effect.
市场也偏爱分裂政府必然带来的僵局——至少在美国是这样，因为那里的商业环境本已有利（政治瘫痪在欧洲等地更成问题，因为那里的基本条件并不利于增长）。如果有什么影响的话，一个重振旗鼓的国会实施监督，恐怕只会让总统加征关税、发动战争和大幅削减公共部门变得稍难一些。围绕预算的斗争在所难免，但无论如何原本也会发生。而且民主党比共和党更不愿通过阻挠提高联邦债务上限来冒主权违约的风险。
Markets also like the inevitable stasis of divided government—at least in America, where the business environment is already favourable (political paralysis is more of a problem in places like Europe, where the underlying conditions are not pro-growth). If anything, oversight from a reinvigorated Congress will probably make it a bit harder for the president to raise tariffs, wage wars and gut the public sector. Fights over the budget are inevitable, but then they would have been anyway. And Democrats have tended to be less willing than Republicans to court sovereign default by blocking rises to the federal debt ceiling.
表面的平静之下，暗流涌动，股市尤甚。一位输家是埃隆·马斯克。这位时而身价过万亿的右翼人士，在今年的选举中斥资近5亿美元助选共和党。民主党将以同样的方式回报：细究政府与其旗下电动车制造商特斯拉及火箭公司SpaceX的合同。两家公司股价分别下跌3%和4%。
Still, placidity on the surface conceals a bit more churn beneath, especially in equities. One loser is Elon Musk. The right-wing sometime-trillionaire wasted nearly $500m helping elect Republicans in this year’s races. Democrats will return the favour by poring over the government’s contracts with his carmaker, Tesla, and rocketry firm, SpaceX. Their share prices fell by 3% and 4%, respectively.
其他联邦承包商虽未在民主党人心中激起如此强烈的个人敌意，但既然反对党掌握了财政大权，它们仍难逃审视，尤其是左派眼中令人反感的行业。私营监狱运营商CoreCivic和GEO Group均协助特朗普推行无情的大规模驱逐行动，股价因担忧新一届国会会压缩移民预算而下挫。民主党也不太可能批准特朗普要求的1.5万亿美元国防开支，洛克希德·马丁、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼、RTX等军火商首当其冲。
Other federal contractors do not inspire as much personal animus among Democrats. But they can still expect scrutiny now that the opposition party controls the purse strings, especially in industries that lefties find objectionable. Private-prison operators such as CoreCivic and GEO, both of which have assisted Mr Trump’s heartless mass-deportation effort, shed value on fears that the incoming Congress would squeeze the immigration budget. Democrats are also unlikely to accept Mr Trump’s request to spend $1.5trn on defence, hitting Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and other armsmakers.
第二类输家是命运完全系于人工智能数据中心建设的企业。许多共和党人曾支持这些设施建设——直到引发反弹，被民主党无情利用。占计划新增产能一半的四个州中，佐治亚、俄亥俄和德克萨斯三州由共和党州长执政。明年起，这四州州长将全为民主党人。在作为数据中心首选目的地的德克萨斯州，当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨竞选时承诺，将立即实施建设暂停令。
The second group of losers comprises firms whose fortunes depend wholly on the buildout of artificial-intelligence data centres. These installations were supported by many Republicans—until they provoked a backlash which the Democrats ruthlessly exploited. Three of the four states which accounted for half of planned new capacity—Georgia, Ohio and Texas—have Republican governors. From next year all four will have Democratic ones. In Texas, the top destination for data centres, the governor-elect, Gina Hinojosa, campaigned on a promise to impose an immediate moratorium on their construction.
大型独立数据中心运营商CoreWeave的股价随即暴跌10%。为AI服务器提供内存芯片的美光科技市值缩水7%。市值达5万亿美元的AI芯片巨头英伟达下滑3%。电气元件制造商——数据中心及为其供电的电厂大量需要此类元件——同样遭受重创。在大选前，两党曾就一项法案达成初步协议，该法案旨在让输油管道和风电场等大型能源项目更容易获得必要许可。民主党现在可能会寻求更苛刻的谈判条件。GE Vernova、Vistra和Vertiv的股价各自跌去约十分之一。
The share price of CoreWeave, a big independent data-centre operator, duly slumped by 10%. Micron, which makes memory chips that go into AI servers, lost 7% of its value. Nvidia, the $5trn behemoth of AI-chipmaking, slipped by 3%. Manufacturers of electrical components—lots of which are needed in data centres and in power plants that supply them with electricity—have also taken a knock. Before the elections the two parties had reached a tentative deal on a bill that would make it easier for big energy projects, such as pipelines and wind farms, to secure the necessary permits. Democrats may now wish to drive a harder bargain. The shares of GE Vernova, Vistra and Vertiv each lost around a tenth of their value.
反之，这股“蓝色浪潮”提振了那些指望特朗普式预算削减会被扭转的行业（医疗保健和清洁能源），以及数据中心大户。大科技的“超大规模运营商”现在可能削减开支以保住利润率，同时面临来自CoreWeave等竞争对手在现有产能上的竞争减弱。亚马逊和微软股价上涨逾6%。Alphabet涨幅超过3%。甚至由“男性圈”领袖扎克伯格掌舵的Meta也小幅上扬。科技大佬们预计将被传唤至国会接受对抗性听证，内容涉及AI及其对特朗普的阿谀奉承。但至少他们下一次财报电话会可能会更加融洽。■
Conversely, the blue wave has lifted industries that can count on Trumpian budget cuts being unwound (health care and clean energy) and large spenders on data centres. Big tech’s “hyperscalers” may now spend less, preserving their margins, while facing less competition for their existing capacity from CoreWeave and the like. Amazon and Microsoft were up by more than 6%. Alphabet gained over 3%. Even Meta, led by the manospheric Mark Zuckerberg, edged up. The tech bosses can expect to be hauled before Congress for adversarial hearings, both about AI and their obsequiousness towards Mr Trump. But at least their next earnings calls may turn out to be more amicable.■