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民主党“蓝色浪潮”恐撞上死胡同Democrats’ blue wave may crash into a dead end

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众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯2026年11月3日在华盛顿特区举行的民主党国会竞选委员会观选活动上竖起大拇指。House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries giving a thumbs up at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee watch party in Washington, DC on Nov. 3, 2026.

无论最终计票结果如何,选民似乎都对特朗普总统感到不满。伊朗战争不得人心,而居高不下的汽油价格更是持续燃料选民对长期可负担性危机的愤怒。但民主党将如何利用这种不满?

Whatever the final count, it looks like voters are unhappy with President Trump. The Iran war is unpopular, and sky-high gas prices are, well, fuel for voters’ continued fury over the ongoing affordability crisis. But what will Democrats do with that discontent?

正如《Axios》在一篇极具前瞻性的前瞻报道中指出的那样,民主党对其胜利——无论是涟漪还是巨浪——的庆祝可能昙花一现。这有充分的理由。

As Axios noted in a prescient preview, Democrats’ celebration of their triumph — be it a ripple or a wave — might be short-lived. For good reason, too.

二十多年来,该党的精英及其媒体盟友一直在指责全国其他民众不愿加入他们鲁莽的左倾之旅。

The party’s elites and their media allies have spent the better part of two decades now shaming the rest of the country for not joining them on their reckless ride leftward.

就在两年前,乔·拜登及其无能的副手卡玛拉·哈里斯被赶出华盛顿特区,此前他们强行向美国人推行了一套从未获得同意的议程。

Joe Biden and his hapless deputy Kamala Harris were run out of Washington, DC, just two years ago, after foisting on Americans an agenda they’d never agreed to.

大门洞开的边境、跨性别狂热、挥霍无度的开支,以及一种屈从、自卑的地缘政治路线,迫使美国在阿富汗向塔利班投降——同时招致了乌克兰被入侵和10月7日的暴行。选民对民主党执政的最后记忆并不美好。

Wide-open borders, transgender madness, profligate spending and a submissive, self-conscious approach to geopolitics that compelled a surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan — while inviting the invasion of Ukraine and the atrocities of Oct. 7. Voters’ last memories of Democratic governance aren’t pretty ones.

即使他们在明年1月最终控制国会两院,民主党也极不可能真正进行多少施政。

And even if they end up with control of both chambers of Congress come January, it’s unlikely that Democrats will be doing much governing at all.

唐纳德·特朗普总统坐镇白宫,手握否决大笔,他们将无法推进任何主要议程项目——即使他们成功“废除”参议院冗长辩论规则,取消了这一对多数派冲动急需的制约、从而防止我们失控的政治真正彻底失控。当然,他们可以采取更审慎的马策略,通过交易推进自己的议程。

With President Donald Trump in the White House and his veto pen in hand, they won’t be able to push through any of their major agenda items — even if they succeed in nuking the Senate filibuster, doing away with the much-needed check on majoritarian impulses that’s kept our out-control-politics from really spinning out. Of course, they could pursue a more prudent strategy of horse-trading that could move their ball forward.

特朗普极易受“魅力攻势”影响——实际上正好与“免疫”相反;只需问问马马达尼市长或沙皇普京便知。

Trump is extremely susceptible — the opposite of immune, really — to a charm offensive; just ask Mayor Mamdani or Tsar Putin.

到了拨款资助政府的时候,他们难道不能提供一些东西吗?比如以许可改革来增加国内能源生产、降低成本,换取为他们心爱的福利国家提供更多资金?

When it comes time to fund the government, could they not offer Trump something, like, say, permitting reform to increase domestic energy production and lower costs in exchange for more funding for their beloved welfare state?

为何不以接受对移民与海关执法局(ICE)实施更严格问责措施为条件,提供更多移民执法资源?

Why not offer more resources for immigration enforcement for accepting tougher accountability measures for ICE?

为何不尝试将另一项刑事司法法案(如《第一步法案》)与打击欺诈行为相结合——这种欺诈在明尼苏达州已泛滥成灾?因为那同样会要了他们的命,所以才不这么做。

And why not try to pair another criminal-justice bill like the First Step Act with a crackdown on fraud of the sort that’s run rampant in Minnesota? Because it’d kill them too, is why not.

即将出任议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯刚刚围绕着不仅要制衡特朗普、更要让他承担责任这一主题跑完了一整场竞选。

Soon-to-be Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has just run an entire campaign on not just acting as a check on Trump, but on holding him accountable.

他甚至开始把选举日称为“审判日”。他的党团绝不会允许他在特朗普白宫任期的最后阶段与其合作——哪怕那样做对他们自己更有利,你知道的,哪怕他们试着做做本职工作。可惜,最终将是光说不练,毫无作为,辜负了选民。

He’s even taken to calling Election Day, “Judgment Day.”His caucus won’t let him work with Trump during his waning days in the White House — even if it’d be better for them if they, you know, tried to do their jobs. Alas, instead it’ll be all talk and no work on behalf of their constituents.

所有的信息传递都将旨在安抚其基本盘中最疯狂的成员,而非让普通民众感到安心。他们会对特朗普的每一个举动大呼小叫、咬牙切齿。他们会竭尽全力重新打开南部边境的闸门,让移民执法陷入瘫痪。他们会提出行不通的预算案,只会进一步推高通胀。

And the messaging will all be geared toward mollifying the craziest members of their base, not on reassuring the average Joe. They’ll scream bloody murder over Trump’s every move. They’ll do everything in their power to reopen the floodgates at the southern border and grind immigration enforcement to a halt. They’ll propose unworkable budgets that would only inflame inflation.

他们会警告说,如果没有他们现在所谓的“绿色新政”,世界就会毁灭——这一次是真的。他们会为男孩参加女子体育比赛的事业摇旗呐呼。他们几乎会站在伊朗一边,而非美国一边。他们会站在哈马斯一边,而非以色列一边。

They’ll warn that without whatever they’re calling the Green New Deal now, the world will end — this time for real, though. They’ll champion the cause of boys competing in girls’ sports. They’ll all but take Iran’s side over America’s. They’ll take Hamas’ over Israel’s.

最终,他们会找到某个理由试图弹劾特朗普,并极有可能真的在参议院发动另一场审判——就像第一次那样。周三早上,民主党人大概率正悠闲地享用着香槟橙汁。

And eventually, they’ll find something to try impeaching Trump over, and quite possibly pull the trigger on another trial in the Senate — just like they did the first time around. Democrats will likely be enjoying mimosas on Wednesday morning.

但他们同样大概率会给自己带来一场持续数年的宿醉——因为他们让美国人再次看清了他们到底是谁。

But they’re equally likely to give themselves a years-long hangover — by reminding Americans of who they really are.

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