英国国家网络安全中心（NCSC）表示，攻击者极有可能在2028年前利用人工智能驱动的恶意软件，对关键国家基础设施发动勒索软件攻击。该警告出现在NCSC于11月3日发布的年度评估《网络国家状况》中。
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) says attackers will highly likely use AI-powered malware in a ransomware attack on critical national infrastructure by 2028. The warning is in the NCSC annual review, The State of the Cyber Nation, published on 3 November.
NCSC隶属于GCHQ情报机构，还预计敌对国家将依赖人工智能。
The NCSC, part of the GCHQ spy agency, also expects hostile states to lean on AI.
“NCSC写道：‘到2028年，中国、俄罗斯以及其他国家极有可能常规使用人工智能网络手段来实现其地缘政治目标。’”中国、俄罗斯和伊朗评估称，中国的活动是英国面临的最复杂、最持久的网络挑战。它将俄罗斯列为当今最大胆的网络威胁。评估补充说，与伊朗有关的组织显示出网络行动能够大规模造成无差别破坏。
“By 2028, it is highly likely China, Russia, and other nation states will routinely use AI cyber to achieve their geopolitical goals,” the NCSC wrote. China, Russia and Iran The review calls China’s activity the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge facing the UK. It names Russia as the most audacious cyber threat today. Iran-linked groups, it adds, show how cyber operations can cause indiscriminate disruption at scale.
案例研究涉及波兰。英国和欧盟指责俄罗斯联邦安全局第16中心对2025年12月波兰能源电网的攻击负责。NCSC称，如果攻击成功，可能导致50万人停电。
One case study covers Poland. The UK and EU blamed Russia’s FSB Centre 16 for an attack on Poland’s energy grid in December 2025. Had it worked, 500,000 people could have lost power, the NCSC said.
NCSC还将中国列为最有能力利用人工智能针对关键基础设施的国家，并表示中国极有可能有此意图。一年事件概览评估覆盖2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日。在此期间，NCSC的事件团队收到1,831起网络攻击报告。其中，337起需要其支援，NCSC评定其中80起为国家级重要事件。其早期预警服务还向8,500家组织发出疑似被侵害的警示。
The NCSC also named China as the state best placed to use AI against critical infrastructure. It said China highly likely has the intent to do so. A year of incidents The review covers 1 September 2025 to 31 August 2026. In that time, the NCSC’s incident team received 1,831 reports of cyber attacks. Of those, 337 needed its support, and the NCSC rated 80 as nationally significant. Its Early Warning service also alerted 8,500 organisations to signs of a suspected compromise.
大多数成功攻击仍采用熟悉的手段：利用面向互联网系统的已知漏洞、被盗凭证和社会工程。对大型组织而言，88%的事件起始于四种方式之一：利用面向公众的应用程序、网络钓鱼、滥用有效账户以及利用远程服务。
Most successful attacks still used familiar methods: known flaws in internet-facing systems, stolen credentials and social engineering. For large organisations, 88% of incidents started in one of four ways. Those were exploiting public-facing applications, phishing, misuse of valid accounts and exploiting remote services.
英国国家网络安全中心（NCSC）援引政府研究称，恶意网络活动每年给英国机构造成147亿英镑的损失。捷豹路虎报告称，其2025年遭受的攻击造成了约1.96亿英镑的直接损失。NCSC表示，那次攻击是导致英国2025年第三季度增长仅为0.1%的因素之一。
The NCSC cites government research that puts the cost of malicious cyber activity at £14.7bn a year for UK organisations. Jaguar Land Rover reported about £196mn in direct costs from its 2025 attack. The NCSC said that attack contributed to UK growth of only 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025.
人工智能改变了什么 NCSC表示，“几乎可以肯定”人工智能将成为熟练攻击者的力量倍增器。人工智能主要将加快并扩大现有技术的规模，而非创造新技术。其事件响应团队已开始看到攻击者加入人工智能工具，但这些用法均未催生出一类全新的攻击。
What AI changes The NCSC said it is “almost certain” that AI will act as a force multiplier for skilled attackers. AI will mostly speed up and scale existing techniques rather than create new ones. Its incident team has begun to see attackers add AI tools, but none of those uses enabled a new class of attack.
该机构预计将出现一波“补丁潮”，因为人工智能会发掘出软件中的旧漏洞。它敦促各机构为大量安全更新做好准备，其中一些更新属于关键级别。
The agency expects a “patch wave” as AI uncovers old flaws in software. It urged organisations to plan for a rush of security updates, some of them critical.
该评估还描绘了2028年的一种悲观情景，NCSC称这并非预测。在该情景中，一个基于前沿人工智能构建的自动化攻击者脱离了其操作者的控制。NCSC称，这样一个实体能够自我复制并随意发动攻击，是一种“现实可能性”。
The review also sets out a pessimistic scenario for 2028, which the NCSC said is not a prediction. In it, an automated attacker built on frontier AI slips out of its operator’s control. The NCSC called it a “realistic possibility” that such an entity could copy itself and attack at will.
NCSC仍认为人工智能最终对网络安全将是“净利好”。它表示，要实现这一点需要现在立即采取行动。“廉价技术”NCSC首席执行官理查德·霍恩在伦敦发表演讲，发布了这份评估。
The NCSC still believes AI will ultimately be a “net positive” for cyber security. Getting there requires urgent action now, it said. “Tech on the cheap”NCSC chief executive Richard Horne launched the review with a speech in London.
“在未来几个月里，我们面临网络事件数量出现前所未有上升的真实前景。但我们必须明确，这并不是因为人工智能发明了新的攻击方式，”霍恩说。
“In the coming months, we face a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in the number of cyber incidents. But we must be clear, that is not because AI has invented new ways to attack us,” Horne said.
他将此归咎于旧漏洞，攻击者如今能够以新的规模和速度发现并利用这些漏洞。“几十年来，我们集体靠着廉价技术蒙混过关，”霍恩说。
He blamed old flaws that attackers can now find and exploit at a new scale and pace. “For decades we have collectively got away with tech on the cheap,” Horne said.
霍恩表示，英国军事网络每天都面临入侵企图。他还提到欧洲各地制冷设备遭到破坏的事件，包括针对超市冷柜的攻击。
Horne said UK military networks face attempts to break in every day. He also cited the disruption of refrigeration units across Europe, including the supermarket freezer attacks.
霍恩说，在PHP2Shell漏洞事件后，NCSC向英国机构发出了超过11万条通知和警报。
The NCSC issued more than 110,000 notifications and alerts to UK organisations after the PHP2Shell vulnerability, Horne said.
国防领域的人工智能 该评估报告介绍了“DROMOS项目”，该项目在政府代码上测试了前沿人工智能模型。经过为期四周的试点后，它被部署到部分政府系统中。在那里，它发现了数百个潜在安全问题，包括严重漏洞。
AI for defence The review describes Project DROMOS, which tested frontier AI models on government code. After a four-week pilot, it moved into selected government systems. There it uncovered hundreds of potential security issues, including critical vulnerabilities.
英国国家网络安全中心（NCSC）与文化、数字部门计划在五年内建成国家网络盾牌。政府在上周的人工智能网络防御预算中为其提供了资金。霍恩敦促各组织将政府的基础安全认证“网络 essentials”视为起点，而非目标。
The NCSC and the culture and digital department plan to build the national Cyber Shield over five years. The government funded it in last week’s AI cyber defence budget. Horne urged organisations to treat Cyber Essentials, the government’s basic security certification, as a starting point rather than the goal.
安全事务大臣丹·贾维斯在一份声明中表示：“我们正在利用人工智能的力量，帮助领先于那些企图伤害我们的人。”
“We’re using the power of AI to help stay ahead of those who seek to do us harm,” Security Minister Dan Jarvis said in a statement.