民主党在周二的中期选举中赢得历史性胜利，恭喜你们再次拥有真正的立法权力。现在的问题是，民主党将从胜利中汲取什么教训，以及他们是否会重蹈拜登时代的覆辙，那些错误让他们在2024年付出了惨痛代价。
Democrats won an historic midterm election victory Tuesday, and congratulations on again having real legislative power. The question now is what lessons Democrats will take from their triumph, and whether they’ll return to the same mistakes of the Biden era that cost them so dearly in 2024.
第一条至关重要的教训是，选民把权力交给民主党，是因为他们想惩罚特朗普总统。他们认为特朗普未能兑现降低物价的承诺，且不喜欢他在法治、关税、大规模驱逐移民以及裙带资本主义牟利方面的过度行为。
The first essential lesson is that voters are handing Democrats power because they wanted to rebuke President Trump. They think he failed to deliver on his promise to lower prices, and they don’t like his excesses on the rule of law, tariffs, mass deportation, and crony cashing in.
选民并非认可民主党——该党在最新NBC民调中的支持率仅为29%，甚至低于共和党的38%。选民也并非拥抱民主党的政策议程，因为该党根本没有提出过一个。候选人像念咒语一样反复高呼“特朗普”，然后谈论物价和腐败问题。他们对于如何降低成本几乎没有提供任何具体方案。
Voters weren’t endorsing the Democratic Party, which stands at 29% approval in the latest NBC poll, below even the 38% for the Republican Party. Voters also weren’t embracing a Democratic policy agenda, since the party didn’t offer one. Candidates chanted “Trump” like an incantation and then talked about costs and corruption. They offered little specificity about how to reduce costs.
民主党的一项确定优先事项将是调查行政部门和特朗普家族企业，一些监督是必要的。特朗普滥用赦免权、他的加密货币操作，以及小唐纳德·特朗普在与政府有业务往来的公司中的投资，都是值得调查的课题。政府向私营企业提供贷款或投资也是如此，特别是那些特朗普家族公司持有股份的企业。
One Democratic priority is sure to be investigating the executive branch and the Trump family businesses, and some oversight is warranted. Mr. Trump’s misuse of the pardon power, his cryptocurrency plays, and Don Jr.’s investments in firms that do business with the government are all worthy subjects. Ditto for the government loans to or investment in private firms, especially those in which Trump family companies have stakes.
在政策事务上加强审查也可能提供有用的信息。究竟是谁真正切断了乌克兰的“星盾”卫星接入？让我们进一步了解美国政府与阿莱杭德罗·贝坦库尔达成的协议，后者是政府在开采委内瑞拉石油资源的优惠交易中具有政治关联的合作伙伴。
More scrutiny on policy matters could also be usefully informative. Who really throttled Ukraine’s Starshield satellite access? And let’s learn more about the U.S. agreement with Alejandro Betancourt, the Administration’s politically connected partner in its preferential deal to exploit Venezuelan oil resources.
政治风险在于民主党人无法控制自己。在特朗普首个任期内他们做不到这一点，并在政治上为此付出了代价。一个关键考验将是他们能否抵制再次弹劾他的呼声。佩洛西没能抵制，她的努力仅仅巩固了总统的共和党支持基础。除非民主党人挖掘出足够严重的证据，能让共和党参议员在众议院弹劾后投票定罪，否则他们最好满足于监督和告知选民。
The political danger is that Democrats won’t be able to control themselves. They didn’t in Mr. Trump’s first term, and it cost them politically. One key test will be whether they can resist the calls to impeach him again. Nancy Pelosi didn’t, and her efforts merely solidified the President’s Republican support. Unless Democrats uncover something serious enough to get Republican Senators to convict after a House impeachment, they would be wise to settle for oversight and informing the voters.
在立法层面，未来两年将呈现分裂政府的挫折感。不幸的是，鉴于40万亿美元的债务和去年2万亿美元的赤字，国会通常通过花费更多来掩盖分歧。
Legislatively the next two years will feature the frustrations of divided government. Unfortunately for the country, given the $40 trillion debt and last year’s $2 trillion deficit, Congress typically papers over disagreements by spending even more.
民主党人是否从拜登的挥霍开支中吸取了教训？那场开支狂潮助长了通胀，导致他连任失败。随着工人担心能源价格，该党是否会直接回到气候强制令和昂贵电动车补贴的老路上？
Did Democrats learn a lesson from Mr. Biden’s spending binge, which fueled the inflation that cost him re-election? As workers worry about energy prices, will the party go straight back to climate mandates and subsidies for expensive electric cars?
拜登执政时期的其他意识形态过度行为也是如此。民主党大力推动《众议院法案1号》（H.R.1），该法案旨在以加利福尼亚州为蓝本将选举规则联邦化，包括推翻各州禁止“收集选票”的法律。该法案会重现吗？预计将出任众议院议长的杰弗里斯呼吁进行“剧烈的最高法院改革”，这不会获得特朗普的签署。但如果杰弗里斯继续这样表态，那将成为选民在2029年不信任其党掌握全部权力的一个严重理由。
Ditto for other ideological excesses from Mr. Biden’s time. Democrats pushed hard for H.R.1, their bill to nationalize election rules on California’s model, including overriding state laws against ballot harvesting. Will that reappear? Likely new House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has called for “dramatic Supreme Court reform,” which won’t get Mr. Trump’s signature. But if Mr. Jeffries keeps talking that way, it will be a serious reason for voters not to trust his party with total power in 2029.
如果他和预计将出任参议院领袖的舒默想寻找一条更好的道路，他们可以寻求与共和党妥协，造福国家。许可改革就是一个例子。另一个可能是移民问题。
If he and likely Senate leader Chuck Schumer want a better path, they could seek compromise with Republicans to benefit the country. Permitting reform is one example. Another might be immigration.
特朗普先生有时曾表示想要帮助那些小时候被带到美国的“梦想者”。与此同时，民主党人抨击总统扼杀了俄克拉荷马州参议员詹姆斯·兰克福德于2024年谈判达成的边境法案，该法案本会将更严格的庇护法律标准成文。这种法律修改值得特朗普支持，因为它将在他之后继续生效，并使下一任总统更难重新开放南部边境。
Mr. Trump has sometimes spoken of wanting to help “Dreamers” brought to the U.S. as children. Democrats, meantime, have castigated the President for killing the border bill negotiated in 2024 by Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford, which would have codified a stricter legal standard for asylum. Such a change to the statute is worth Mr. Trump’s support, since it would outlast him and make it harder for the next President to reopen the southern border.
民主党面临的一个困难将是其队伍中的激进分子。众议院“小分队”规模将翻倍，社会主义左派将感到气势大增。纽约州当选众议员达丽丽莎·阿维拉·舍瓦利耶曾辩称，驱逐甚至暴力罪犯都是不道德的。当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德想要清洗宾夕法尼亚州民主党参议员约翰·费特曼，罪名是后者认为以色列有权自卫。众议院司法委员会民主党首席议员杰米·拉斯金提出了由13名大法官组成的最高法院设想。
One difficulty for Democrats will be the radicals in their ranks. The House “squad” will double in size, and the socialist left will feel empowered. New York Rep.-elect Darializa Avila Chevalier has argued that it’s immoral to deport even violent criminals. Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed wants to purge Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, for the offense of believing Israel has a right to defend itself. Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, has floated a Supreme Court with 13 Justices.
这一切都不会提高该党的支持率。这也可能导致选民在2028年得出结论：特朗普之后的共和党看起来没那么糟。
None of that will improve the party’s approval rating. It could also lead voters to conclude in 2028 that the post-Trump Republican Party doesn’t look so bad after all.