共和党在可负担性问题上存在信任危机，而民主党有望继承这一难题。
Republicans have a trust problem on affordability, and Democrats are poised to inherit it.
如果民主党今晚的表现如民调所预示的那般出色，人人都知道两大原因：可负担性问题和唐纳德·特朗普总统。一年来，《POLITICO》民调始终发现，约半数美国人将生活成本列为前三大议题之一——而在本月的一系列民调中，大多数民主党选民表示，他们的投票更多是针对特朗普，而非选票上的候选人。
If Democrats do as well tonight as polls suggest, everyone knows the two reasons why: affordability and President Donald Trump. For a year now, The POLITICO Poll has consistently found that half of Americans rank the cost of living as one of their top three issues — and in a series of surveys this month, most Democratic voters say their vote is more about Trump than the candidates on the ballot.
但我们的民调也揭示了民主党控制国会后将面临的挑战。民主党在可负担性问题上已建立起明显优势，但要求采取行动的选民，可能很快就会反戈一击，惩罚一个在相互竞争的优先事项中陷入两难的政党。
But our polling also reveals the challenges for a Democratically-controlled Congress. Democrats have opened up a strong advantage on affordability, but voters who are demanding action may quickly turn on a party that finds itself torn between competing priorities.
民主党联盟的很大一部分将中期选举视为对特朗普的公投，这意味着今晚的胜利，很难为接下来该做什么提供明确的指引。
Much of the Democratic coalition is approaching the midterms as a referendum on Trump, meaning a victory tonight would offer few clear lessons about what should come next.
民主党选民的两大核心诉求——降低生活成本和阻止特朗普——在执政时也可能产生冲突。当被要求在“通过两党立法降低生活成本”与“避免给特朗普政府任何胜利”之间二选一时，民主党内部并不团结。29%的受访者宁愿牺牲可负担性方面的进展，以助力2028年大选前景。
Democratic voters’ two biggest demands — drive down the cost of living and stop Trump — can also conflict, especially when it comes time to govern. Asked to choose between passing bipartisan legislation to reduce the cost of living or avoid giving the Trump administration any wins, Democrats are not united. Twenty-nine percent would prefer to sacrifice progress on affordability to help their 2028 chances.
以下是《POLITICO》民调一年来的追踪，揭示了进入中期选举时的选民图景——以及未来的走向。
Here is what a year of The POLITICO Poll tells us about the electorate heading into the midterms — and what comes next.
其他议题此起彼伏，但生活成本始终独占鳌头。即便春季全球局势动荡加剧，仍有约半数美国人将生活成本列为国家前三大议题。中期选举的核心考验几乎未曾改变。
Other issues have risen and fallen, but the cost of living has remained in a tier of its own. Even as global instability rose in the spring, roughly half of Americans still ranked the cost of living among the country’s top three issues. The central test of the midterms has barely changed.
共和党面临的问题不仅在于选民关注生活成本，更在于选民越来越信任民主党能够降低生活成本。在过去一年里，民主党巩固了自身基本盘的支持，并在投给特朗普或在2024年弃权的选民中取得了微弱增长。仅这一点就将民主党的优势从2个百分点扩大到了17个百分点。
Republicans’ problem isn’t just that voters are focused on cost of living – it’s that they increasingly trust Democrats to bring it down. Over the last year, Democrats have solidified support from their own base and made small gains among voters who went for Trump or sat out in 2024. That alone was enough to widen their advantage from 2 points to 17 points.
超过一半支持民主党候选人的选民表示，他们的投票更多是基于特朗普及其表现，而非候选人本身。这种情绪在进步派以及感受到食品杂货和汽油价格上涨挤压的选民中尤为明显。这给民主党揭示了一个风险。学会如何击败特朗普，不如学会如何推出拥有受欢迎政纲的自家候选人——尤其是在特朗普卸任仅剩两年的情况下。
Over half of voters supporting a Democratic candidate say their vote is more about Trump and his performance than the candidates themselves. That sentiment is particularly pronounced among progressives and those who have felt the squeeze of rising grocery and gas prices. This reveals a risk for Democrats. Learning how to beat Trump is less valuable than learning how to run candidates with popular platforms of their own — particularly with only two years left before he is no longer the president.
在过去一年里，我们让民主党选民在一系列权衡中作答，涉及坚持原则与冒着失去众议院控制权或削弱对抗特朗普斗争的风险之间的取舍。他们在一点上达成了一致：为赢而撒谎是绝对不能跨越的红线。除此之外，民主党选民在原则与务实之间往往意见分歧。微弱的胜利可能会加剧党内进步派与温和派的分歧，但民主党控制国会后面临的更大问题是：要以多大力度对抗特朗普的议程。
Over the past year, we tested Democratic voters on a series of trade-offs between standing on principle and risking control of the House or the fight against Trump. They agreed on one thing: Lying to win is a bridge too far. Beyond that, Democratic voters are often split between principle and pragmatism. A narrow victory could sharpen the party’s progressive-moderate divide, but the larger question for a Democratic Congress would be how hard to fight Trump’s agenda.
在2024年总统大选之前，PF Global的民调显示了一种可能听起来耳熟能详的动态。特朗普选民认为美国生活的几乎每个方面都在变得更糟。如今，在共和党政府执政下，他们的前景变得更加光明——而哈里斯选民则变得明显更加悲观。这种逆转显示了党派控制权如何迅速塑造公众认知。如果民主党夺回国会控制权，他们不仅可能获得解决选民问题的权力，也将承担解决这些问题的重担。
Before the 2024 presidential election, PF Global’s polling showed a dynamic that might sound familiar. Trump voters believed nearly every part of American life was getting worse. Now, under a Republican administration, their outlook has brightened — while Harris voters have grown markedly gloomier. The reversal shows how quickly partisan control shapes public perception. If Democrats retake Congress, they may gain not only the power to address voters’ problems, but the burden of solving them.
塞布·赖德是PF Global的民调负责人，该总部位于伦敦的公司运营《政治报》民调。
Seb Wride is the head of polling at PF Global, the London-based firm that runs The POLITICO Poll.