
共和党人认为,他们的政党并未将重心充分放在选民最关心的问题上。
Republicans don’t think their party is focused enough on their biggest issue.
经济——具体而言是生活成本——远远超过其他议题,成为选民的头号关切。《政治》(POLITICO)民调最新公布的结果显示,就在投票结束前几小时,共和党面临一个警示信号:共和党中期选举选民希望本党聚焦的议题,与他们所说本党实际聚焦的议题之间,存在显著脱节。
The economy — and specifically the cost of living — is far and away voters’ top concern, and new results from The POLITICO Poll reveal a warning sign for the GOP just hours before polls close: There’s a stark disconnect between what Republican midterm voters want their party to focus on and what they say the party actually is focusing on.
近半数美国人——47%——表示,在决定如何投票时,生活成本和可负担性属于最重要的议题之列。其中,44%的共和党中期选民将其列为首位,54%的民主党中期选民持同样看法。经济与就业排名第二。
Nearly half of Americans — 47% — say cost of living and affordability are among the issues that matter most when they are deciding how to vote. That includes a 44% plurality of Republican midterm voters and 54% of Democratic midterm voters. The economy and jobs ranked second.
但当被问及哪些议题对其政党最重要时,39%的共和党选民将移民与驱逐列为共和党的首要任务。仅有23%的人认为本党的首要任务是生活成本和可负担性——比将其视为首要投票考量的人群比例低21个百分点。
But when asked which issues matter most to their party, a 39% plurality of Republican voters cited immigration and deportations as a top priority for the GOP. Just 23% said the party’s top priority was cost of living and affordability — a 21-point gap from the share who said it was a top voting concern.
近三分之二的共和党选民还表示,他们希望从本党那里听到更多关于经济和生活成本的内容。
Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters also say they want to hear more about the economy and cost of living from their party.
这是一个明确的信号:选民希望共和党紧盯可负担性问题,即便一些共和党人和唐纳德·特朗普总统继续倾向于发动文化战争式攻击——从跨性别运动员参加女子体育比赛,到称德克萨斯州民主党参议员提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科为“豆腐塔拉里科”。在近期的演讲中,特朗普经常将其他话题——包括文化议题、倒影池,以及共和党候选人的屁股——置于经济之上。
It’s a clear signal that voters wanted the GOP to stay focused on affordability, even as some Republicans and President Donald Trump continued to lean into culture war attacks — from transgender athletes in women’s sports to calling Texas’ Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico “tofu Talarico.”In recent speeches, Trump has often prioritized other topics — including cultural issues, the Reflecting Pool and, yes, GOP candidates’ rear ends — over the economy.
特朗普周五在佛罗里达州代托纳比奇对一群听众说:“如果民主党赢得中期选举,‘你们将面临一场1929年式的经济大萧条’。”他紧接着补充道:“因为当你们听到男人参加女子体育比赛,当你们听到跨性别,当你们听到——你们知道的,开放边境以及所有这些——他们拥有的一切都是疯狂的。”与此同时,民主党这边并没有出现同样的脱节:民调发现,多数民主党选民将生活成本和可负担性列为其政党的首要任务。
If Democrats win the midterms, “you will have a 1929 style economic depression,” Trump told a crowd in Daytona Beach, Florida this Friday. He added immediately after: “Because when you hear men in women's sports, when you hear transgender, when you hear about — you know, open borders and all — everything they have is crazy.”Meanwhile, there isn’t the same dissonance on Democrats’ side: A plurality of Democratic voters pointed to cost of living and affordability as a top priority for their party, the poll found.
调查结果揭示了共和党在选举日前面临的一个潜在信息传递弱点:即使在计划支持该党的选民中,也存在一种看法,即共和党领导人没有投入足够的关注来应对最令美国人担忧的生活成本问题。特朗普自己的议程——他的关税政策以及他决定让美国卷入与伊朗的战争——已经搅动了全国局势,并影响到可能决定国会权力平衡的关键竞选。
The findings expose a potential messaging vulnerability for Republicans heading into Election Day: Even among voters planning to support the party, there is a perception that GOP leaders are not devoting enough attention to the cost of living concerns weighing most heavily on Americans. Trump’s own agenda — his tariffs and his decision to involve the U.S. in a war with Iran — has roiled the country and key races that could determine balance of power in Congress.
共和党策略师杰夫·伯顿对民调结果表示:“嗯,我认为这对共和党不利。但这讲得通,因为共和党大部分的竞选信息并未围绕这一问题以及可负担性和生活成本的真实含义展开。而且当每个街角的汽油价格比几个月前高出2美元或更多时,要吹嘘这一点很难。”这项由PF Global在选举前周末进行的调查,凸显了贯穿整个周期困扰共和党候选人的信息传递挑战。
“Well, I don't think it's good for Republicans,” Republican strategist Jeff Burton said of the poll results. “But it makes sense, because most of the Republicans' campaign message hasn't evolved around that and what affordability and cost of living really is. And it's hard to tout it when every street corner has gas prices $2 or more than they were just a few months ago.”The survey, conducted by PF Global the weekend before the election, underscores the messaging challenge that has dogged Republican candidates throughout the cycle.
各条战线上的候选人都聚焦于经济论点:根据《政治》对广告追踪公司AdImpact主要电视广告数据的分析,竞选团队和外部团体在聚焦可负担性的广告上已花费超过8亿美元,其中民主党阵营团体约4.01亿美元,共和党阵营团体约3.11亿美元。
Candidates in races up and down the ballot have zeroed in on economic talking points: Campaigns and outside groups have spent more than $800 million on ads focusing on affordability, including roughly $401 million from Democratic-aligned groups and $311 million from Republican-aligned groups, according to a POLITICO analysis of primarily TV ad data from the tracking firm AdImpact.
尽管如此,共和党一直难以有效说服选民,让他们相信共和党正在尽足够努力解决一个选民也认为共和党应负责任的问题。一些共和党策略师认为,这种脱节归结为一个人:特朗普。
Still, the GOP has struggled to effectively convince voters that it is doing enough to fix an issue voters also hold them responsible for. Some Republican strategists think that disconnect comes down to one person: Trump.
“我是说,看看他今天在干什么,”资深亚利桑那州共和党策略师查克·考夫林在大选前夕说道。“他站在林肯纪念堂倒影池前。他把关注度又拉回到了他的纪念碑展示上。”
“I mean, look at what he's doing today,” said longtime Arizona Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin on the eve of the election. ”He's going in front of the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool. He's drawing attention back to his monument exhibition.”
“他在多大程度上偏离了既定信息,以及这如何让背负上他的叙事,这简直令人难以置信,而他的叙事根本不涉及美国人关心的事情,”考夫林继续说道。“我是说,他一次又一次地基本上都在说,他不在乎。你知道,他认为物价负担能力问题是个骗局。”上周末,特朗普在佛罗里达州、南卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州进行了三场竞选集会。根据《政治报》的分析,在所有这些演讲中,他谈论经济和生活成本的时间仅占10%多一点。
“It's phenomenal how off message he is, and how that has burdened the party with his narrative, which doesn't come close to talking about what Americans care about,” Coughlin continued. “I mean, he's pretty much said time and time again, he doesn't care. You know, he thinks affordability is a hoax.”At the end of last week, Trump made three campaign stops in Florida, South Carolina and Ohio. Across all of those speeches, he spent just over 10% of his time talking about the economy and the cost of living, according to a POLITICO analysis.
这明显少于他谈论文化战争议题和其他与物价危机无关话题的时间。例如,他呼吁众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔(民主党-明尼苏达州)辞职、以及抨击阿拉斯加州丹·沙利文选票争议所花的时间,比谈论物价和通胀的时间还要多。
That’s significantly less than the amount of time he spent talking about culture war issues and other topics unrelated to the affordability crisis. He spent more minutes advocating for Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) to resign and zeroing in on the Dan Sullivan ballot controversy in Alaska than he did talking about prices and inflation, for example.
枪支、跨性别议题和重新命名地标所占的篇幅,比减税、关税和药价加起来还要多。
Guns, transgender issues, and renaming landmarks took up more of his focus than taxes, tariffs, and drug prices combined.
“特朗普总统兑现了承诺,为辛勤工作的家庭提供减负,通过‘小费免税’、‘加班费免税’、‘老年人扣除额增强’和‘车贷利息免税’,争取到了超过820亿美元的个人减税,”白宫发言人马修·米德尔顿在一份声明中说。
"President Trump has delivered on his promise to provide relief to hardworking families, securing more than $82 billion in individual tax relief from No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, the Enhanced Senior Deduction, and No Tax on Car Loan Interest,” White House spokesperson Matthew Middleton said in a statement.
共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷表示,“民主党的极左政策将摧毁”共和党取得的进展,而特朗普“已跨越全国各地,推动选民走向投票站,支持我们的共和党候选人,他们将在未来两年巩固这些成果。”《政治》民调显示,共和党中期选举选民对更多讨论特朗普政治信息中显著出现的一些文化议题,兴趣相对不大。
RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said “Democrats' far-left policies will decimate” Republicans’ progress and that Trump "has criss crossed the nation to drive voters to the polls to support our Republican candidates who will build on these achievements over the next two years." The POLITICO Poll suggests there is relatively little appetite among Republican midterm voters for more discussion of some of the cultural issues that have featured prominently in Trump’s political messaging.
当被要求从选项列表中选择两个议题时,仅10%的共和党中期选举选民表示希望从该党听到更多关于“觉醒文化和DEI(多元、公平与包容)”的内容。只有6%的共和党中期选举选民和5%的民主党中期选举选民将种族、DEI和“觉醒文化”列为其首要投票关切之一。
Just 10% of Republican midterm voters said they want to hear more about “wokeness and DEI” from the party, when asked to select two issues from a list of options. And only 6% of Republican midterm voters and 5% of Democratic midterm voters identified race, DEI and “wokeness” as among their top voting concerns.
相比之下,64%的共和党中期选举选民表示希望听到更多关于经济和生活成本的内容,42%的人对移民和边境安全持同样看法。
By contrast, 64% of Republican midterm voters said they want to hear more about the economy and cost of living and 42% said the same about immigration and border security.
结果还凸显了经济议题是如何彻底主导了本次选举周期,将在过去选举中扮演重要角色的议题——包括堕胎权和跨性别议题——推向了边缘。
The results also underscore just how thoroughly the economy has dominated this election cycle, relegating issues that played prominent roles in past elections — including abortion rights and transgender issues — to the sidelines.
共和党策略师伯顿表示:“如果共和党选民真觉得他们最关心的议题没有得到解决,那肯定会影响投票率。担心的是,‘好吧,他们出来投票了,但会投给民主党人还是分裂选票?’”
“If Republican voters actually feel that their number one issue isn't being addressed, then that is definitely going to affect turnout,” said Burton, the GOP strategist. “And the worry could be that, ‘okay, they turn out, but do they actually vote Democrat or split their ticket?’”