在一场可能颠覆其总统地位的选举前夕，唐纳德·特朗普前往林肯纪念堂倒影池，那里他曾监督一项耗资数百万美元的翻修工程，结果新涂层剥落、藻类滋生导致池水变绿而告吹。助手们希望总统能聚焦普通美国人关心的问题：飙升的汽油价格、昂贵的食品杂货、中东的一场新战争。然而，特朗普在长达53分钟的演讲中，大谈建设项目，而非他当选时誓言服务的这个国家所面临的挣扎。
On the eve of an election that threatened to upend his presidency, Donald Trump went to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, where he had overseen a multimillion-dollar renovation that went awry when its new coating peeled and algae turned the water green. Aides hoped the President would focus on the concerns weighing on ordinary Americans: soaring gas prices, expensive groceries, a new war in the Middle East. Instead, Trump spent much of his 53-minute speech talking about construction projects rather than the struggles of the nation he had been elected to serve.
这是一场奇怪竞选活动令人费解的收官之作。盟友们对特朗普在全国奔波期间无法紧扣主题感到惊诧。他在美国人为能源成本挣扎时吹嘘石油公司大发横财。他声称纽约人不再被允许叫母亲“妈咪”，建议将新墨西哥州改名为“新美国”，并反复模仿一位民主党参议员候选人看到肉就呕吐的样子。他一次又一次地离题万里，谈论男性的体格。正如一位特朗普助手所言：“当你的候选人老谈阿诺德·帕尔默的‘天赋’和乔恩·休斯特的‘屁股’时，很难触达那些买不起汽油的选民。”
It was a bewildering capstone to a strange campaign. Allies marveled at Trump’s inability to stay on message as he crisscrossed the country. He boasted that oil companies were making a fortune as Americans struggled with energy costs. He claimed New Yorkers were no longer allowed to call their mothers “mom,” suggested renaming New Mexico “New America,” and repeatedly mimicked a Democratic Senate candidate vomiting at the sight of meat. Time and again, he veered into bizarre digressions about men's physiques. As one Trump aide put: “It’s hard to reach voters who can’t afford gas when your candidate keeps talking about Arnold Palmer’s endowment and Jon Husted’s ass.”
民主党的胜利规模令人震惊。他们轻松夺取了众议院和参议院的控制权。他们在传统上属于共和党的州以压倒性优势拿下州长职位和参议院席位，并在被不公正划分以利于共和党的众议院选区中获胜。这场溃败是对特朗普的明确否定。在全国各地，总统亲手挑选的候选人都遭遇了惨败，包括得克萨斯州丑闻缠身的肯·帕克斯顿，以及南卡罗来纳州已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹达琳·格雷厄姆——这些提名人都曾遭到党内领导人的反对，他们认为其他共和党人胜算更大，但特朗普仍将他们推上了候选人之位。
The scale of the Democrats’ victory was staggering. They seized control of both the House and Senate with ease. They captured governorships and Senate seats by commanding margins in traditionally Republican states, and prevailed in House districts gerrymandered to favor the GOP. The wipeout was a clear repudiation of Trump. Across the country, the President’s handpicked candidates went down to resounding defeats, including scandal-plagued Ken Paxton in Texas and Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, in South Carolina—nominees he had elevated over the objections of party leaders who believed other Republicans stood a better chance.
到当晚结束时，特朗普承认了反对派的胜利，并认识到伊朗战争是他落败的一个因素。“我们实际上拥有最好的经济，”特朗普对福克斯新闻说。“但由于汽油价格，人们不像没有这个问题时那样能感受到它。而汽油价格是伊朗造成的。”
By night's end, Trump acknowledged the opposition's victory and recognized that the war in Iran was a factor in his loss. "We actually have the greatest economy," Trump told Fox News. "But because of the gasoline prices people don't see it as much as they would have without it. And the gasoline was caused by Iran."
特朗普的亲信常常说，他不太在意中期选举的结果。他把本党在国会失去席位视为不可避免的历史规律。他说得有道理：巴拉克·奥巴马的民主党人在连续两次中期选举中遭受重创，乔治·W·布什的共和党人在2006年也惨败。特朗普本人则在2018年见证了数十个众议院席位的丢失。顾问们试图说服总统，他对选举的走向有一定的影响力，但“他难以摆脱历史规律的束缚，”特朗普的一位高级顾问说。
Trump’s confidantes often remarked that he cared little about the outcome of the midterms. He regarded his party's loss of seats in Congress as an inescapable historical pattern . He had a point: Barack Obama's Democrats took a beating in consecutive midterms, and George W. Bush's Republicans were drubbed in 2006. Trump himself oversaw the loss of dozens of House seats in 2018. Advisers tried convincing the President that he had some agency over the election’s trajectory, but “he had trouble getting past the history,” one of Trump's top advisers says.
他对即将到来的僵局式激烈争斗逐渐听之任之，对民主党人可能展开的调查和潜在的弹劾程序也不屑一顾。“他们可能会对我下手，”他在9月下旬对《时代》周刊说，“而我也会对他们下手。”
He grew resigned to the gridlocked slugfest ahead and dismissive of the investigations and potential impeachment proceedings Democrats could embark upon. “They’ll probably go after me,” he told TIME in late September, “and I’ll go after them.”
11月2日，特朗普总统在林肯纪念堂倒影池发表讲话时举起一张倒影池的图片。——芬恩·戈麦斯——盖蒂图片社十多年来，特朗普对共和党人的掌控力在现代政治中无人能及，他让议员们屈从于自己的意志，让异议成为终结职业生涯的命题。共和党在11月3日遭遇的惨败，加上越来越多的人认为特朗普已成为政治负资产，可能会让这位跛脚鸭总统的最后两年截然不同，使他对共和党的控制终于松动。
President Trump holds up an image of the Reflecting Pool as he delivers remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Nov. 2. —Finn Gomez—Getty Images For more than a decade, Trump has commanded a degree of loyalty from Republicans unmatched in modern politics, bending lawmakers to his will and making dissent a career-ending proposition. The trouncing the GOP suffered on Nov. 3, coupled with the growing perception that Trump has become a political liability, could usher in a very different final two years for a lame-duck President, causing his grip on the GOP to finally slacken.
美国全国广播公司新闻周二的一项出口民调显示，43%的选民表示，他们投票是为了表达对特朗普的不赞成。
An NBC News exit poll on Tuesday revealed that 43% of voters said they cast their votes to express disapproval of Trump.
第二任期最后两年的总统往往转向外交政策，因为在这一领域，他们可以行使行政权力，受国会或法院的约束较少。特朗普已经发出信号，表示他准备恢复对伊朗的军事打击。另一位政府高级官员表示，特朗普计划在总统任期的最后几年更加重视西半球，因为一系列亲特朗普的国家元首在那里上台执政，而且特朗普及其盟友认为，美国与中国和伊朗在该地区影响力的竞争日益激烈。“这是一个如此好的结盟机会，”一位政府高级官员说。“那里将扩大关注。”
Presidents in the final two years of their second terms often pivot toward foreign policy, where they can exercise executive power with fewer constraints from Congress or the courts. Trump was already signaling his readiness to resume military strikes against Iran. Another senior Administration official says Trump plans to concentrate even more heavily on the Western Hemisphere in the final years of his presidency, where a succession of pro-Trump heads of state have risen to power and where he and his allies see an intensifying competition with China and Iran for regional influence. “It's such an opportunity to align,” says one senior Administration official. “There'll be an expanded focus there.”
但在自由行使行政权力两年之后，特朗普的权力将面临新的制约。他将难以确保自己提名的官员获得确认。助手们预计，最高法院将围绕他预计会依赖代理官员担任通常需要参议院确认的职位展开争斗。然而，特朗普最亲近的人坚称，他绝不会受到约束。他们预测他会变得更加厚颜无耻、更加桀骜不驯，并更加决心不惜一切代价地战斗。“不要指望特朗普会变得更善良、更温和，”一位亲密盟友说。“这可能是特朗普总统任期的一个篇章的结束，但也是另一个篇章的开始。”
But after two years wielding executive authority freely, there will be new checks on Trump’s power. He will struggle to secure confirmation for his nominees. Aides anticipate Supreme Court battles over his expected reliance on officials serving in an acting capacity in positions that ordinarily require Senate confirmation. And yet those closest to Trump insist he will be anything but constrained. They predict him to grow more brazen, more defiant, and more determined to fight at any cost. “Don’t expect a kinder, gentler Trump,” one close ally says. “This may be the end of one chapter of Trump’s presidency, but it’s also the beginning of another. ”
随着中期选举在9月下旬进入冲刺阶段，特朗普的助手们觉得他比平时更加心不在焉。他尚未大幅动用其盟友超级政治行动委员会（超级竞选委员会）那4亿美元的“战争储备金”。共和党人恳请他向一场特别绝望的竞选注资：在深红州得克萨斯州为肯·帕克顿（Ken Paxton）辩护的战斗。特朗普最终授权他挑选的两位外部政治运作主管克里斯·拉西维塔（Chris LaCivita）和詹姆斯·布莱尔（James Blair）开始大举花钱，以维护共和党控制参议院的机会，并限制他们在众议院的失利席位。
With the midterms ramping up in late September, Trump's aides thought he seemed more checked out than usual. He had yet to dip significantly into the $400 million war chest of his allied super PAC. Republicans were pleading with him to pour money into one particularly desperate contest: the fight to defend Ken Paxton in ruby-red Texas. Trump eventually authorized the two men he had tapped to oversee his outside political operation, Chris LaCivita and James Blair, to begin spending heavily to preserve Republicans' chances of maintaining control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House.
幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯（Susie Wiles）和其他顾问敦促特朗普投身竞选路演，以“救世主”的角色吸引他。他计划了一场雄心勃勃的竞选冲刺，帮助共和党避免中期选举惨败：一个月内跑遍32个竞争激烈的国会选区，举办一系列标志性的造势集会——这正是推动他政治崛起的利器。但即使特朗普以新的强度重返竞选路演，他也屡屡偏离既定信息，制造出其顾问们希望他避免的各类争议。
Chief of staff Susie Wiles and other advisers urged Trump to hit the campaign trail, appealing to him as a savior. He planned an ambitious campaign sprint to help Republicans stave off a midterm disaster: 32 competitive congressional districts in a single month, a rush of the trademark rallies that had powered his political rise. But even as Trump returned to the trail with renewed intensity, he repeatedly veered off message, generating the kinds of controversies his advisers hoped he would avoid.
在南卡罗来纳州的一场集会上，他赞扬了一名似乎殴打抗议者的支持者，将其比作前重量级拳王伊万德·霍利菲尔德（Evander Holyfield）。他甚至似乎在嘲讽自己支持者的盲目忠诚。“我可以说最蠢的话，你们也会为我鼓掌，”他在田纳西州克拉克斯维尔对一群听众说道。
At a rally in South Carolina, he praised a supporter who appeared to punch a protester, comparing him to former heavyweight boxing champion Evander Holyfield. He even seemed to mock the unquestioning loyalty of his own supporters. “I could say the stupidest things and you’d clap me,” he told one crowd in Clarksville, Tenn.
特朗普试图复制他在2024年竞选中的一项策略，寻求通过非政治渠道以及美国人日益多地消费的替代媒体平台，触达低投票倾向选民。助手们招募了职业运动员和其他名人背书人，他们能为竞选造势活动增添地方吸引力。他们邀请巴尔的摩乌鸦队球员出席马里兰州的一场活动，邀请佐治亚大学橄榄球名宿托德·格利出席“桃子州”佐治亚州的一场集会。
Trump tried to recreate a strategy from his 2024 campaign, seeking to reach low-propensity voters through nonpolitical channels and the alternative media platforms that Americans were increasingly consuming. Aides enlisted professional athletes and other celebrity validators who could lend local appeal at campaign stops. They brought Baltimore Ravens players to an event in Maryland and University of Georgia football legend Todd Gurley to a rally in the Peach State.
他们邀请拳击手杰克·保罗出席俄亥俄州扬斯敦的另一场集会。他们邀请史上最畅销女说唱歌手妮琪·米娜在密歇根州助选，特朗普赞扬她拥有“极其性感的屁股”，让人“难以忽视”。随后，助手们半开玩笑地提出让米娜担任特朗普的下一任白宫新闻秘书的设想。
They brought the boxer Jake Paul to another in Youngstown, Ohio. They brought Nicki Minaj, the best-selling female rapper of all time, onto the campaign trail in Michigan, where Trump praised her for having “one hell of a beautiful ass” that was “hard to miss.”Later, aides mischievously floated the prospect of Minaj serving as Trump’s next White House press secretary.
总统特朗普在当地时间10月30日抵达佛罗里达州代托纳比奇的一场竞选集会时，随着音乐起舞。——安德鲁·哈尼克——盖蒂图片社在整个中期选举周期中，特朗普的政治直觉似乎越来越脱节。他承诺，如果美国人让共和党继续控制国会，将向他们发放 5000 美元支票，此举招致道德监督机构的谴责，这些机构将该提议比作试图买票。
President Trump dances to music as he arrives for a campaign rally in Daytona Beach, Fla. on Oct. 30. —Andrew Harnik—Getty Images Throughout the midterm cycle, Trump’s political instincts seemed increasingly out of step. He promised Americans $5,000 checks if they kept Republicans in control of Congress, drawing condemnation from ethics watchdogs who likened the offer to an attempt to buy votes.
他用凯蒂·扎卡里亚取代了白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特；这位未经考验的 Newsmax 人物在一场灾难性的新闻发布会以及有关她自称律师、却只通过了中国律师资格考试而非美国律师资格考试的披露后，仅坚持了五天。尽管包括副总统 J.D. 万斯在内的顾问建议不要这样做，特朗普仍背书以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡连任，尽管这位以色列领导人在美国民众中不受欢迎。
He replaced White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt with Katie Zacharia; the untested Newsmax personality who lasted just five days after a disastrous press conference and revelations that she had presented herself as a lawyer despite having passed the bar in China but not the United States. Against the advice of advisers, including Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election, despite the Israeli leader’s unpopularity among Americans.
据一位知情人士透露，该背书仅在内塔尼亚胡最坚定的两位美国盟友——美国驻以色列大使迈克·哈克比和福克斯新闻主持人马克·莱文——亲自敦促特朗普介入后才作出。（哈克比和莱文暂未回复置评请求。）特朗普开玩笑说要扣留未能选出共和党参议员的州的灾害援助。他的干预往往加剧了他的政治麻烦。《华盛顿邮报》-益普索民调发现，67% 的美国人认为他没有认真考虑重要决定。
The endorsement came only after two of Netanyahu’s staunchest American allies—U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and Fox News host Mark Levin—personally urged Trump to intervene, according to a source familiar with the matter. ( Huckabee and Levin did not immediately reply to requests for comment.) Trump joked about withholding disaster aid from states that failed to elect Republican senators. As often as not, his interventions compounded his political troubles. A Washington Post –Ipsos poll found that 67% of Americans believed he did not carefully consider important decisions.
与特朗普关系密切的共和党人表现惨淡，尽管特朗普本人亲自介入，且埃隆·马斯克斥资近5亿美元助选，这为其政府面临的强烈反弹提供了鲜明注脚。选民正在应对创纪录的高油价、一场在中东备受反对的战争，以及持续的经济困境，与此同时，政府因处理爱泼斯坦档案的方式，以及特朗普及其盟友被指利用职权谋利而面临审视。这种不满已超越生活成本范畴。10月福克斯新闻的一项民调显示，60%的登记选民对政府腐败“极度担忧”，这一比例甚至超过了对通胀和高物价的担忧。
The dismal performance of Republicans closely aligned with Trump, despite his personal interventions and nearly half a billion dollars in spending by Elon Musk, offered a stark measure of the backlash against his aAdministration. Voters were grappling with record-high gas prices, an unpopular war in the Middle East, and persistent economic hardship as the Administration faced scrutiny over its handling of the Epstein files and allegations that Trump and his allies had profited from their positions of power. The discontent extended beyond the cost of living. An October Fox News poll found that 60% of registered voters were extremely concerned about government corruption, surpassing even concerns about inflation and high prices.
随着周二晚间选票陆续统计，白宫盟友意识到，他们正在见证特朗普激进、打破常规的第二个总统任期的一个阶段的终结。但他们也明白，另一个可能更危险的阶段正在开始。选民对特朗普以及过去两年纵容他的政党做出了裁决，发出了要求变革的强音。
As the returns rolled in on Tuesday night, allies at the White House knew they were witnessing the end of one period of Trump's radical, norm-shattering second presidency. But they also understood that another, potentially more perilous phase was beginning. The voters had rendered their verdict on Trump and the party that had enabled him for the past two years, delivering a resounding demand for change.
但他身边最亲近的人预计，面对民主党的监督，总统只会变得更加凶猛、更少妥协。顾问们认为民主党会矫枉过正，让他得以将自己重塑为政治迫害的受害者，而非自己困境的缔造者。“历史上，他成为攻击目标时表现总是最好，”一名助手说。“比任何人都清楚如何利用这一点为己所用。”
But those closest to him expected the President to grow only more ferocious and less conciliatory in the face of Democratic oversight. Advisers suggest Democrats will overplay their hand, allowing him to recast himself as the victim of political persecution rather than the architect of his own predicament. “Historically, he has always done well when he’s the target,” says one aide. “He knows better than anyone how to use that to his advantage.”
当地时间11月1日，特朗普总统在爱荷华州下机后，与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊和美国内政部长道格·伯古姆一同向记者讲话。——安德鲁·哈尼克—盖蒂图片社助手们正准备应对一波人员变动潮，这既源于自然流失，也源于特朗普解雇令他不满的官员。结果可能是进一步退缩进一个由忠诚者组成的封闭小圈子，他们无法或不愿传递坏消息、遏制他的冲动。
President Trump speaks with reporters alongside Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum after landing in Iowa on Nov. 1. —Andrew Harnik—Getty Images Aides are bracing for a wave of staff turnover, a combination of attrition and Trump dispensing with officials who have frustrated him. The result could be a further retreat into an insular circle of loyalists who are unable or unwilling to deliver bad news or curb his impulses.
白宫内部，顾问们一直在权衡分裂政府的含义。“他的天然倾向是与民主党人、无党派人士或其他人合作，”另一位高级助手说。“但他清楚调查和对方将玩的把戏，并准备好反击。”民主党浪潮已使该党领袖更加大胆。预任众议院监督委员会主席在X上发出简短警告：“请律师吧。”
Inside the White House, advisers have been contemplating the implications of divided government. “His natural inclination is to work with Democrats or Independents or whatever,” says another senior aide. “But he’s aware of the investigations and the games the other side will play, and he’s prepared to fight back.”Already, the Democratic wave had already emboldened the party’s leaders. The expected incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee delivered a succinct warning on X: “LAWYER UP.”
但前路将不同于特朗普以往经历的任何道路。受宪法限制无法寻求连任，随着共和党开始构想后特朗普时代，总统可能发现共和党面临新的政治算计。随着2028年总统大选逐渐成形，副总统J.D.万斯将面临微妙任务：在不疏远他可能仍需背书的特朗普的前提下，塑造独立于特朗普的个人形象。这些张力不仅可能损害两人关系，还可能冲击特朗普花费十年组建的更广泛联盟——该联盟已显裂痕，曾经忠诚的盟友如塔克·卡尔森和马乔丽·泰勒·格林已倒戈相向。
But the road ahead will be unlike any Trump has traveled before. Constitutionally barred from seeking another term, the President may find that Republicans face a new political calculus as they begin contemplating a post-Trump future. As the 2028 presidential race takes shape, Vice President J.D. Vance will confront the delicate task of forging an identity independent of Trump without alienating the man whose endorsement he may still need. Those tensions could strain not only their relationship but the broader coalition Trump has spent a decade assembling—one already showing signs of fracture as once-loyal allies like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have turned against him.
问题在于，维系特朗普在共和党统治地位的恐惧与忠诚，在其党内开始展望后特朗普时代时，能否持久。
The question is whether the fear and loyalty that have sustained Trump's dominance of the GOP will endure as his party begins looking beyond him.