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民主党人对抗特朗普的计划内幕Inside the Democrats' Plans to Take On Trump

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《时代》周刊图片合成(来源图片:吉姆·沃森—法新社/盖蒂图片社)Photo Illustration by TIME (Source image: Jim Watson—AFP/Getty Images)

当哈基姆·杰弗里斯在美国国会大厦以南的一场选举之夜庆祝活动上登台时,还远未到午夜,人群已经在高喊“杰弗里斯议长!杰弗里斯议长!”这位布鲁克林民主党人在“声名狼藉先生”的《难以置信》旋律中登场,随后直视镜头宣称:“美国回来了。”他停顿了一下,露出灿烂的笑容,品味着这一刻。

When Hakeem Jeffries took the stage at an election-night celebration just south of the U.S. Capitol, well before midnight, the crowd was already chanting “Speaker Jeffries! Speaker Jeffries!”The Brooklyn Democrat emerged to the strains of “Unbelievable” by the Notorious B.I.G., then looked straight into the camera and declared, “America is back.”He paused, breaking into a broad grin as he savored the moment.

在少数党待了近两年后,杰弗里斯很可能成为首位黑人众议院议长,他所在的政党掀起了一股惊人的胜利浪潮,将共和党人赶下了国会山的权力宝座。“我很早就明白,挫折不过是卷土重来的铺垫,”他对欢欣鼓舞的人群说。“今天,伟大的美国回归开始了。”几分钟后,几个街区之外,参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默也有自己的胜利要庆祝:“我们对美国人民有五个字:解脱即将到来,”他对竞选团队工作人员说。

After nearly two years in the minority, Jeffries is likely to become the first Black Speaker of the House, his party riding a stunning wave of victories that swept Republicans from power on Capitol Hill. “I learned very early on that a setback was nothing more than a setup for a comeback,” he told the jubilant crowd. “Today begins the great American comeback.”Minutes later, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer had his own victory to celebrate a few blocks away: “We have five words for the American people: Relief is on the way,” he told campaign staff.

这是一场横跨东西海岸的大胜,超出了民主党人原本就很高的期望。截至周三上午,该党已翻转至少29个众议院席位,包括在宾夕法尼亚州、科罗拉多州和弗吉尼亚州摇摆选区的决定性胜利;同时在得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州等深红州的参议院胜利,让他们夺得了参议院的控制权。这一结果是对总统的决定性否定——他对经济的处理、不断上涨的物价以及与伊朗的战争引发了广泛不满,而他在竞选最后的日子里还在对候选人的身材品头论足,并无视美国民众对自身生计的担忧。

It was a coast-to-coast rout that exceeded the Democrats’ high expectations. As of Wednesday morning, the party had flipped at least 29 House seats, including decisive victories in swing districts in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia, while Senate victories in deep red states like Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa gave them control of the upper chamber. The results were a decisive rebuke of a President whose handling of the economy , rising prices, and the war with Iran had fueled widespread discontent , and who spent the closing days of the campaign musing about candidates’ anatomy and dismissing Americans’ concerns over their bottom line. —Photo Illustration by TIME

——《时代》周刊图片合成点击此处购买本期杂志自特朗普重返华盛顿以来,民主党人将首次获得实权,不再只是跺脚呐喊。他们将能够在国会两院设定立法议程,迫使政府官员作证,调查腐败指控,迫使共和党人进行艰难的投票,并阻止新的内阁提名人或联邦法官。党内领导人看到了一个机会,可以将公众对特朗普的不满转化为一个持续性的论点,为民主党在2028年重返白宫铺路。

Click here to buy your copy of this issue For the first time since Trump returned to Washington, Democrats will be empowered to do more than stomp and shout. They will be able to set the legislative agenda in both chambers of Congress, compel testimony from Administration officials, investigate allegations of corruption, force Republicans to take difficult votes, and block new Cabinet nominees or federal judges. Party leaders see an opportunity to turn the public's discontent with Trump into a sustained argument for returning Democrats to the White House in 2028.

加利福尼亚州众议员、众议院民主党党团副主席刘云平说:“这感觉像是2018年的加强版。”他指的是特朗普第一个任期内民主党赢得众议院控制权的那次选举。随后的两年以漫长的政府停摆和两次弹劾为标志。

“This feels like 2018 on steroids,” says Representative Ted Lieu of California, vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, referring to the election during Trump’s first term when Democrats won control of the House. The ensuing two years were marked by a lengthy government shutdown and two impeachments .

接下来的两年应该同样充满争议。在选举前数日对二十多位民主党领导人、策略师和国会议员的采访显示,这个政党急于在总统开辟的几乎每一条战线上展开战斗。加利福尼亚州众议员罗伯特·加西亚有望出任权力巨大的监督委员会主席,他在选举结果陆续出炉时在社交媒体上发文:“请律师吧。”民主党人正在准备一场立法攻势,旨在扭转政府一些最不受欢迎的政策,包括削减医疗补助、联邦医疗保险补贴到期、特朗普的大规模关税以及对伊朗的战争。

The next two should be similarly contentious. Interviews with more than two dozen Democratic leaders, strategists, and members of Congress in the days before the election revealed a party itching to fight on nearly every front the President has opened. “LAWYER UP,” Representative Robert Garcia of California, who is in line to chair the powerful Oversight Committee, posted on social media as returns came in. Democrats are preparing a legislative offensive aimed at reversing some of the Administration's most unpopular policies, including cuts to Medicaid , the expiration of federal health insurance subsidies , Trump's sweeping tariffs , and the war in Iran.

他们计划推进降低住房和医疗保健成本的提案,同时对总统的政府和商业利益展开积极调查。一些党内官员已经在放眼未来两年之后,希望制定一项更广泛的经济议程,为下一次总统竞选定下基调。

They plan to advance proposals to lower the costs of housing and health care while pursuing aggressive investigations into the President's Administration and business interests. Some party officials are already looking beyond the next two years, hoping to develop a more expansive economic agenda that could define the next presidential campaign.

在共和党在国会山占据多数席位、对特朗普唯命是从的两年之后,民主党人准备重新确立国会作为对等政府分支的角色。他们清楚,自己的大部分议程几乎没有成为法律的可能;特朗普已经欣然接受了“否决先生”这个称号。但议员们相信,即便无法取得立法胜利,他们也能获得政治上的收益。通过倡导拥有广泛公众支持的政策,党内领导人希望借此暴露共和党内部的分歧,迫使特朗普为其不受欢迎的决定辩护,并展示一个完全由民主党领导的政府会把哪些事务列为优先事项。

After two years in which Republican majorities on the Hill deferred to Trump, Democrats are poised to reassert Congress’s role as a coequal branch of government. They know much of their agenda stands little chance of becoming law; already, Trump has embraced the moniker “Mr. Veto.”But members believe they can make political gains even when they cannot achieve legislative victories. By advocating for policies that command broad public support, party leaders hope to expose divisions among Republicans, force Trump to defend unpopular decisions, and demonstrate what a government fully led by Democrats would prioritize.

众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯表示,随着选举结果在全美范围内有利于民主党人,他的政党已经重新夺回国会的控制权。

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said his party had retaken control of Congress as election results favored them across the US.

在中期选举之夜与众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯一同举行的观选派对上,随着有利于民主党候选人的计票结果陆续传来,工作人员们欢呼雀跃。汤姆·威廉姆斯—CQ-Roll Call/盖蒂图片社Staffers cheer as results in favor of Democratic candies roll in during a midterm election night watch party with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images

在中期选举之夜与少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯共同举办的观选派对上,工作人员在有利于民主党的选举结果陆续传来时欢呼。——汤姆·威廉姆斯——CQ-Roll Call/盖蒂图片社但当中期选举的胜利庆祝结束之后,民主党人的挑战将等着他们。甚至在他们取得压倒性胜利之前,民调就显示该党仍然不受欢迎。其领导人在向左走多远、什么样的经济信息才能赢回2024年抛弃他们的选民,以及以多大力度的对抗特朗普等问题上存在分歧。

Staffers cheer as results in favor of Democratic candies roll in during a midterm election night watch party with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. —Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images But when the midterm victory laps conclude, the Democrats’ challenges will be waiting for them. Even leading up to their commanding win, surveys showed the party remained unpopular. Its leaders are divided over how far left to move, what kind of economic message will win back the voters who abandoned them in 2024, and how aggressively to confront Trump.

民主党人在以多认真的态度推动第三次弹劾特朗普的问题上意见不一,许多党内领导人认为这条路是政治死胡同。“如果我们把唐纳德·特朗普作为我们关注的中心,我们就会失去这一历史时刻,”新泽西州参议员科里·布克说。“我们需要解决美国人民的问题。”

Democrats are split on how seriously to pursue a third Trump impeachment , a path that many party leaders see as a political dead end. “If we make Donald Trump the center of our focus, we will lose this moment in history,” says Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey. “We need to deal with the American people’s problems.”

民主党人还面临另一个风险:他们抬高了期望,却可能无法兑现。他们以降低物价、恢复政府问责、约束一位被他们描绘成危险且不受制约的总统作为竞选承诺,如今必须证明自己的治理能够给美国人的生活带来切实改变。把这场选举解读为压倒性的授权,对这样一个政党来说尤其危险——它近期的胜利,既源于选民对共和党的不满,也源于对其自身领导层的热情。

There’s also a risk that Democrats have raised expectations they cannot meet. After campaigning on promises to lower prices, restore government accountability, and rein in a President they portray as dangerously unconstrained, they now have to demonstrate their governance can make a tangible difference in Americans' lives. The temptation to interpret the election as a sweeping mandate could be especially perilous for a party whose recent victories have owed as much to dissatisfaction with Republicans as to enthusiasm for its own leadership.

“我真的很担心,我们会把胜利误读为对我们的认可,或者误读为美国爱上了民主党,”康涅狄格州众议员、情报委员会首席议员吉姆·希姆斯说。“我们需要记住,我们被要求试镜的是一个该党曾经失败的角色。”这一警告笼罩着民主党正准备付诸实施的计划。未来两年在华盛顿,很可能由对抗和僵局来定义。如今,民主党人的任务是让美国人相信,这就是胜利的样子。

“I'm really worried that we're going to misread victory as an endorsement of us or America falling in love with Democrats,” says Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, the ranking member of the Intelligence Committee. “We need to remember that we have been asked to audition for a role in which the party has failed.”The warning hangs over the plans Democrats are preparing to put into motion. The next two years in Washington are likely to be defined by confrontation and gridlock. Now Democrats have the task of convincing Americans that this is what victory looks like.

9月中旬,众议院民主党人在美国国会大厦的一间地下室会议室聚会,讨论策略。全国民调预测将出现蓝色浪潮,民主党人对在全国各地取得进展的前景兴奋不已。但他们尚未为竞选最后几周确定一个信息。议员们交换了竞选途中的见闻,这些见闻揭示了选民中相互矛盾的愤怒情绪。在竞争激烈的选区,选民对飙升的汽油和柴油价格怒不可遏。在民主党票仓,选民则执着于腐败问题,表示他们认为特朗普及其核心圈子似乎在利用总统职位牟利。

In mid-September, House Democrats gathered in a basement conference room in the U.S. Capitol to discuss strategy. National polling predicted a blue wave and Democrats were giddy about the prospect of making gains across the country. But they had yet to settle on a message for the final weeks of the campaign. Members swapped tales from the campaign trail that revealed dueling frustrations among the electorate. In competitive districts, constituents were furious about soaring gasoline and diesel prices. In Democratic strongholds, voters were obsessed with corruption, expressing the belief that Trump and his inner circle appeared to be profiting off the presidency .

随后,马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金发言,提出了一种凝练了该党最后论述的表述。“我们说的是同一件事,”拉斯金对同僚们说,“问责与可负担性对我们而言在政治上并非岔路口,而是一枚硬币的两面。”摇摆选区的候选人开始大力宣扬这样一种观点:联邦政府的腐败与生活成本危机相互交织。

Then Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland spoke up, offering a formulation that crystallized the party’s closing argument. “We're talking about the same thing,” Raskin told colleagues. “Accountability and affordability are not a fork in the road for us politically. They are two sides of the same coin.”Candidates in swing districts began hammering the idea that corruption in the federal government and a cost-of-living crisis were intertwined.

他们的议程也将以同样的理念为指导。民主党人正准备对特朗普及其盟友展开一连串调查,目标是揭露被指滥用权力的行为,并将总统的财务往来置于公众审视之下。其思路是尽可能把这些调查与美国人面临的经济压力联系起来。进步派智库“公共公民”的国会监督项目主任约书亚·米勒表示,他所在组织的成员数月来一直在与民主党官员会面,讨论如何举行让美国人认为有实质意义、而非仅仅做做样子的听证会。

Their agenda will be guided by the same concept. Democrats are preparing a flurry of investigations into Trump and his allies, with the goal of exposing alleged abuses of power and putting the President's financial dealings under public scrutiny. The idea is to tie as many of these probes as possible to Americans’ economic stress. Joshua Miller, director of Congress Watch at Public Citizen, a progressive think tank, says members of his organization have been meeting with Democratic officials for months to discuss how to hold hearings Americans will see as meaningful, not merely performative.

“这是真正为2029年民主党若获得统一控制权时一项重大改革议程会是什么样而进行试演的第一步,”米勒说,“这也是重新赢得美国人民信任的第一步。”

“This is the first step to actually auditioning for what a significant reform agenda would look like if Democrats were given unified control in 2029,” Miller says. “It’s also the first step to regaining the American people's trust.”

11月1日,总统唐纳德·特朗普抵达艾奥瓦州迪比克市,在中期选举竞选集会上发表讲话。布伦丹·斯米亚洛夫斯基—法新社/盖蒂图片社President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a midterm campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa on Nov. 1. Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images

11月1日,总统唐纳德·特朗普抵达艾奥瓦州迪比克,在中期选举竞选集会上发表讲话。——布伦丹·斯米亚洛夫斯基——法新社/盖蒂图片社在参议院,预计由罗德岛州参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯担任主席的司法委员会,以及由康涅狄格州参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔领导的常设调查小组委员会,正准备在调查攻势中发挥核心作用。

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a midterm campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa on Nov. 1. —Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images In the Senate, the Judiciary Committee, expected to be chaired by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, and the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, under Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, are preparing to play central roles in the investigative offensive.

众议院对应的司法委员会和监督委员会也在为同样积极的推进做准备。马里兰州进步派人士、前宪法学教授拉斯金很可能成为众议院司法委员会主席,他曾主导特朗普第二次弹劾案的起诉工作;而加西亚预计将执掌监督委员会。这两个委员会一直在招聘,已招募了数十名额外的律师和工作人员。

Their House counterparts on the Judiciary and Oversight committees are gearing up for an equally aggressive push. Raskin, a Maryland progressive and former constitutional law professor who led Trump’s second impeachment prosecution, is likely to become House Judiciary Chair, while Garcia is expected to take the helm of Oversight. Both committees have been hiring, recruiting several dozen additional lawyers and staff.

据熟悉各委员会计划的工作人员透露,这些委员会打算调查特朗普的加密货币交易;Truth Social出售对其能影响市场的帖子的更快访问权限——这项服务可能让付费的交易公司比其他投资者更具优势;卡塔尔人捐赠的豪华总统专机;以及有关富有且人脉广泛的捐赠者和盟友以向白宫舞厅或与特朗普结盟的超级政治行动委员会等特朗普钟爱的项目捐款为交换,获得关税豁免或其他政府优待的指控。

According to staffers familiar with the committees’ plans, the committees intend to probe Trump’s cryptocurrency dealings ; Truth Social’s sale of faster access to his market-moving posts, a service that could give paying trading firms an edge over other investors; the luxury presidential aircraft donated by the Qataris ; and allegations that wealthy and well-connected donors and allies secured tariff exemptions or other government favors in exchange for contributions to Trump pet projects like the White House ballroom or Trump-aligned PACs.

他们还要求提供特朗普使用AI聊天机器人的记录,援引《时代》周刊的报道称,总统在发动1月抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的突袭行动前咨询了埃隆·马斯克的聊天机器人Grok。

They’re also demanding records of Trump’s AI chatbot usage, citing a TIME report that the President consulted Elon Musk’s chatbot Grok before launching the January raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.

民主党人急于审查特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳,原因是他在中东和平谈判中扮演的核心角色以及其投资公司与海湾国家的关系引发了利益冲突指控(库什纳对此予以否认)。民主党人还想调查1789资本——小唐纳德·特朗普担任合伙人的一家投资公司——是否从政治关系或对影响其投资组合公司的联邦拨款决策的提前知情中获利。

Democrats are keen to scrutinize Jared Kushner , Trump’s son-in-law, over alleged conflicts of interest (which Kushner has denied) stemming from his central role in Middle East peace negotiations and his investment firm’s ties to Gulf states. Democrats also want to investigate whether 1789 Capital, an investment firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, profited from political connections or advanced knowledge of federal funding decisions affecting companies in its portfolio.

其中之一是Vulcan Elements,该公司在1789投资数月后获得了五角大楼6.2亿美元贷款。(1789否认有不当行为,并表示小特朗普不参与其投资决策。)“白宫整个家族源源不断地搞各种敛财勾当,”加西亚指控道。“这就像在看《黑道家族》,”拉斯金补充说。(白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示“不存在利益冲突”,并坚称“特朗普总统只会为美国公众的最大利益行事——这就是为什么尽管多年来针对他和他的企业存在种种谎言和虚假指控,他们仍以压倒性多数再次选举他担任这一职务。”)

Among them is Vulcan Elements, which secured a $620 million Pentagon loan months after 1789 invested. (1789 denies wrongdoing and says Trump Jr. does not participate in its investment decisions.) “You have endless amounts of grift coming out of the White House from the entire family,” Garcia alleges. “It’s like watching The Sopranos ,” adds Raskin. (In a statement, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said “there are no conflicts of interest” and insisted that “President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public—which is why they overwhelmingly re-elected him to this office, despite years of lies and false accusations against him and his businesses.”)

9月23日,贾里德·库什纳在纽约市举行的和平委员会高级别简报会上发言。瑞安·墨菲—盖蒂图片社Jared Kushner speaks at a Board of Peace High Level Briefing in New York City on Sep. 23. Ryan Murphy—Getty Images

贾里德·库什纳9月23日在纽约市举行的和平委员会高级别简报会上讲话。——瑞安·墨菲——盖蒂图片社笼罩在这些调查之上的是是否要第三次尝试弹劾特朗普的问题。杰弗里斯拒绝就本文接受采访,也没有亮出底牌,只表示民主党人“没有排除任何选项”。但许多民主党人对再次弹劾持谨慎态度。加利福尼亚州参议员亚当·希夫曾在特朗普第一个任期内担任弹劾管理人,他说自己的政党需要对公众情绪保持清醒认识。

Jared Kushner speaks at a Board of Peace High Level Briefing in New York City on Sep. 23. —Ryan Murphy—Getty Images Looming over these investigations is the question of whether to try to impeach Trump for a third time. Jeffries, who declined an interview for this story, isn’t tipping his hand, saying only that Democrats “haven't ruled anything out.”But many Democrats are wary about another impeachment . Senator Adam Schiff of California, an impeachment manager in Trump’s first term, says his party needs to be clear-eyed about public sentiment.

“我们需要看看这个国家处于什么状态,”他说。但仅凭选民的意愿并不能让他们稳操胜券;民主党人清楚,要在参议院获得定罪并将特朗普免职所需的三分之二绝对多数票,机会微乎其微。

“We're going to need to see where the country is,” he says. But voter appetite alone would not set them up for success; Democrats know there would be little chance to obtain the two-thirds supermajority in the Senate required to convict and remove Trump from office.

围绕特朗普弹劾案的犹豫情绪可能会消退。2018年,民主党领导人曾淡化弹劾的前景,结果一年后就启动了弹劾程序。已经支持弹劾听证会的议员称,这关乎历史先例和公共责任。“基本盘也会要求这么做,”加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳说,他正在考虑参加2028年总统竞选。选民本身对再次弹劾特朗普意见不一,在10月全国广播公司新闻决策台民调中,略过半数的受访者表示支持。

The hesitancy surrounding a Trump impeachment could fade. In 2018, Democratic leaders talked down the prospects of impeachment, only to start proceedings a year later. The lawmakers already in favor of impeachment hearings call it a matter of historical precedent and public duty. “The base will also demand it,” says Representative Ro Khanna of California, who is exploring a run for president in 2028. Voters themselves are torn on impeaching Trump again, with a slight majority of those polled in an October NBC News Decision Desk Poll supporting it.

目前,根据与二十多名议员的交谈,民主党人正逐渐凝聚到一个折中方案上:转而将国防部长皮特·赫格塞思列为弹劾目标。今年秋天早些时候,一项决议被提出,旨在以在伊朗、也门、加勒比海和东太平洋未经授权采取军事行动的指控弹劾赫格塞思。其他弹劾条款还指控法外处决、无视旨在尽量减少平民伤亡的法律,以及未经授权抓捕马杜罗。

For now, according to conversations with more than two dozen lawmakers, Democrats are coalescing around a compromise option: targeting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for impeachment instead. A resolution was introduced earlier this fall to impeach Hegseth for allegations of unauthorized military operations in Iran, Yemen, the Caribbean, and the eastern Pacific Ocean. Additional articles allege extrajudicial killings, ignoring laws to minimize civilian casualties, and the unauthorized capture of Maduro.

华盛顿州众议员亚当·史密斯有望第二轮出任众议院军事委员会主席,他说,民主党人认为,把目标对准赫格塞思而非特朗普,或许能争取到足够多的参议院共和党人加入他们。“这样更有可能获得更有力的两党投票支持,并逐步积聚势头,”史密斯说。

Representative Adam Smith of Washington, who is positioned for a second round as chair of the House Armed Services Committee, says by targeting Hegseth instead of Trump, Democrats believe they may be able to draw enough Senate Republicans to join them. “It's got a bigger chance of getting a stronger bipartisan vote, and sort of building momentum,” Smith says.

距离中期选举还有十天,在宾夕法尼亚州第一选区挑战众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克的民主党人鲍勃·哈维站在一礼堂的潜在选民面前,接受他们的提问。43岁的单亲妈妈萨拉·麦克布莱德自称独立人士,她在这所新近翻修的学校里走到麦克风前。她听起来有些疲惫,也略带紧张。“我一直在想的是,你到底是不是一个斗士?”她问道,“国会最不需要的就是又一个畏首畏尾的民主党人,害怕得不敢采取行动、不敢做任何事。”

With ten days to go until the midterm election, Bob Harvie, the Democrat running against Representative Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, stood before an auditorium of prospective voters to take their questions. Sarah McBride, a 43-year-old single mom and self-described independent, approached the microphone in the newly renovated school. She sounded tired and a little nervous. “I guess what I’ve been left wondering is like, are you a fighter?” she asked. “The last thing we need in Congress is another wallflower Democrat who is going to be too afraid to make a move and do anything.”

哈维击败了菲茨帕特里克,他希望向麦克布莱德这样的选民表明,他和众议院近30名新当选的同事能够把竞选路上的言辞转化为改善他们生活的立法。据议员和助手们称,在新一届国会的第一个星期,众议院民主党人计划推进立法,以撤销特朗普的关税、恢复已到期的《平价医疗法案》保费补贴,并逆转1万亿美元的医疗补助削减。

Harvie, who unseated Fitzpatrick, hopes to show voters like McBride that he and nearly 30 newly- elected colleagues in the House can turn their campaign trail rhetoric into legislation that can improve their lives. In the first week of the new Congress, according to lawmakers and aides, House Democrats plan to advance legislation to rescind Trump’s tariffs, restore expired Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, and reverse $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts.

他们还计划提出一项决议,要求特朗普要么结束在伊朗的战争,要么获得国会授权继续这场战争。参议院领导人对其近期议程的表态则不那么明确,不过参议员们所强调的许多优先事项与众议院民主党人相同。

They also plan to put forth a resolution to require Trump to either end the war in Iran or obtain congressional authorization to continue it. Senate leaders have been less clear about their immediate agenda, though members echoed many of the same priorities as House Democrats.

民主党人将废除关税和结束战争视为应对国家经济低迷的两个最大机会。“如果我们能够逆转其中至少一项、或者两项都逆转,那将是巨大的成果,”宾夕法尼亚州众议员布伦丹·博伊尔说,他有望成为下一任众议院预算委员会主席。“在我看来,这基本上就是整场博弈的关键。”

Democrats see repealing the tariffs and ending the war as their two biggest opportunities to address the country’s economic downturn. “If we are able to reverse at least one or both of those things, that would be massive,” says Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, who is in line to become the next chair of the House Budget Committee. “I look at that as basically the whole ballgame.”

目前尚不清楚他们打算如何取胜。参议院民主党人可能会寻求一种名为预算协调的程序,以简单多数通过税收和支出立法,从而绕过60票的阻挠议事门槛。但这些法案仍需获得特朗普的签署。民主党人将需要在参议院获得共和党人的支持,才能推翻总统的否决。国会已根据《战争权力决议》通过了不具约束力的措施,要求结束在伊朗的军事行动,但特朗普已予以拒绝并无视。

It’s not clear how they intend to win it. Senate Democrats may look to a process known as budget reconciliation as a way to pass tax and spending legislation with simple majorities, bypassing the 60-vote filibuster threshold. But those bills would still need to get through Trump. Democrats will need Republican support in the Senate to override presidential vetoes. Congress has already passed nonbinding measures under the War Powers Resolution to end military action in Iran, which Trump has rejected and ignored.

“我们没有关闭开关,”史密斯说。该党也可能试图通过拨款程序阻止伊朗战争资金,或以此问题威胁政府停摆。但这将要求包括竞争激烈选区议员在内的成员冒着被指责不支持前线部队的风险。他们最好的选择可能是通过信息性投票加大压力。但党内许多人,尤其是进步派,认为挑起争斗迫使特朗普为其不受欢迎的决定辩护是有价值的,能向选民展示民主党政府将优先处理什么。

“We don’t have an off switch,” Smith says. The party could also attempt to block Iran war funds through appropriations, or threaten a shutdown over the issue. But that would require members, including those in competitive districts, risk being accused of withholding support from troops in the field. Their best option may be ramping up pressure through messaging votes. But many in the party, especially the progressive wing, see value in picking fights that force Trump to defend unpopular decisions, illustrating for voters what a Democratic government would prioritize.

“我们需要向美国人证明,我们愿意开火,”宾夕法尼亚州众议员萨默·李说。“我认为这和真正开火同样重要。”

“We need to demonstrate to Americans that we’re willing to take shots,” says Representative Summer Lee of Pennsylvania. “I think that that is going to be just as important as making them.”

一些民主党人担心,如果他们推行一项完全聚焦于对抗特朗普政府却毫无进展的议程,会显得软弱无能。许多人希望保持对“可负担性”的强调,正是这一点帮助他们赢得了权力。由中左翼新民主党人党团提出的一套提案敦促该党聚焦五个领域:食品杂货、住房、医疗、能源和家庭照护的成本。国会进步党团另行提出的一份议程则包括为扩大可负担儿童照护提供资金的法案、为首次购房者提供首付援助的另一项法案,以及提高联邦加班工资。

Some Democrats fear looking feckless if they pursue an agenda that’s laser-focused on fighting the Trump Administration and gets nowhere. Many are keen to maintain the emphasis on affordability that helped lift them to power. One slate of proposals , authored by the center-left New Democrats caucus, urges the party to focus on five areas: the costs of groceries, housing, health care, energy, and family care. A separate agenda from the Congressional Progressive Caucus includes bills to fund expanded affordable child care, another to provide downpayment assistance for first-time homeowners, and to raise federal overtime pay.

得克萨斯州众议员、国会进步党团主席格雷格·卡萨尔表示:“每一周,我们都应该通过清晰、大胆的政策,来降低物价、增加薪水。”其他优先事项还包括涉及人工智能监管、数据中心和生殖健康的措施。

"Every single week we should be passing clear, bold policy that would reduce prices and increase paychecks,” says Representative Greg Casar of Texas, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Other priorities include measures tackling AI regulation , data centers , and reproductive health .

即使这些提案无一成为法律,党内策略师也认为,迫使特朗普否决受欢迎的法案有其好处。希夫说:“我们是在告诉全国,这些是我们的优先事项,如果两年后你们把白宫交给我们,我们就能更充分地兑现。”这种做法呼应了该党一代人之前的策略。2006年,民主党人在一位不受欢迎的共和党总统任内夺取了国会控制权,他们利用随之而来的僵局为获取更多权力造势。

Even if none of these become law, party strategists see upside to forcing Trump to veto popular bills. “We’re telling the country that these are our priorities,” says Schiff, “and if you give us the White House in two years, then we’ll be able to more fully deliver.”It’s an approach that echoes the party’s strategy a generation ago. When Democrats seized control of Congress under an unpopular Republican president in 2006, they used the ensuing gridlock to build their case for gaining more power.

前民主党全国委员会主席海梅·哈里森说:“我们在国会完成了大量工作,但全都被乔治·W·布什否决或搁置,然后我们在进入08年选举时把这种阻挠挂在了共和党脖子上。”

“We got a lot done in Congress,” says former Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison, “but it was all vetoed and stalled by George W. Bush, and then we hung that obstruction around the necks of the Republican Party going into ’08.”

民主党人或许能找到机会,向特朗普递交他真正愿意签署的法案,尤其是在双方提案与他本人承诺存在重叠的民生议题上,比如降低处方药价格或扩大住房供应。总统已表示出一定的达成交易的意愿。特朗普在10月谈到民主党控制国会的可能性时对记者说:“会发生的情况是,我把一切都否决掉。你否决、否决、否决,然后他们过来问:‘我们怎么才能把事办成?’”

Democrats could find opportunities to send Trump bills he would actually sign, particularly on pocketbook issues where their proposals overlap with his promises, such as lowering prescription drug prices or expanding the housing supply. The president has signaled some willingness to cut deals. “What happens is I veto everything,” Trump told reporters in October of the possibility of a Democratic-controlled Congress. “You veto, veto, veto, and then they come and they say, ‘How do we get it done?’”

随着民主党人掌权,一个核心问题是他们能否很好地合作来运用权力。第一次考验将出现在两院选举各自领导人之时。多位参议院民主党人和策略师对《时代》表示,参议院的胜利使舒默处于有利位置,有望重返多数党领袖之位。这标志着从2025年3月以来的转折——当时他决定帮助推进一项共和党拨款法案以避免政府停摆,引发了要求他让位的呼声。

As Democrats take power, a central question is how well they can work together to wield it. The first test will come as both chambers choose their leaders. The Senate victory puts Schumer in a strong position to return as majority leader, several Senate Democrats and strategists tell TIME. It marks a turnaround from March 2025, when his decision to help advance a Republican funding bill to avert a government shutdown prompted calls for him to step aside.

亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加列戈说:“如果你把成果带回家、把我们带向胜利,那你就应该留下来。”他称赞舒默招募的候选人在本轮选举中翻转了共和党把持的席位,并在去年基本保持了党团团结,共同反对医疗补助削减。曾担任前议长南希·佩洛西幕僚长的丹尼·韦斯指出,在人们渴望更年轻领导层的当下,75岁的舒默可能会面临挑战。“但通常来说,”他指出,“你完成一场奇迹般的胜利,就会得到回报。”

“If you bring home the bacon and you bring us to victory, then you deserve to stay,” says Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who credited Schumer with recruiting candidates who flipped Republican-held seats this cycle and largely holding the caucus together against Medicaid cuts last year. Danny Weiss, a onetime chief of staff to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, noted the 75-year-old Schumer could be challenged in a moment when there’s an appetite for younger leadership. “But usually,” he notes, “you get rewarded for pulling off a miraculous win.”

选举日当天,参议员查克·舒默在纽约市布鲁克林区第321公立小学投票后出席新闻发布会并发言。岩村由纪—美联社Sen. Chuck Schumer speaks during a press conference after voting at Public School 321 elementary school in the Brooklyn borough of New York on Election Day. Yuki Iwamura—AP

选举日,参议员查克·舒默在纽约市布鲁克林区第321公立小学投票后出席新闻发布会。—Yuki Iwamura—美联社在即将上任的众议院民主党党团中,支持杰弗里斯担任议长的呼声广泛,但未必深厚。盟友称他是一位政治精明但行事谨慎的领导人。对多位现任和即将上任的议员进行的采访表明,当党团于1月3日召开会议选举议长时,他处于有利位置。

Sen. Chuck Schumer speaks during a press conference after voting at Public School 321 elementary school in the Brooklyn borough of New York on Election Day. —Yuki Iwamura—AP Within the incoming House Democratic caucus, support for Jeffries to be Speaker is wide, but not necessarily deep. Allies describe him as a politically savvy but cautious leader. Interviews with a wide range of current and incoming members suggest he is well positioned to become Speaker when the caucus convenes to elect one on Jan. 3.

但一些议员认为,在民主党需要展示实力的时刻,他的谨慎是一种负担。少数进步派议员尚未承诺支持他。即将上任的新人中包括达里亚利萨·阿维拉·切瓦利耶和克里斯·拉布等民主社会主义者,他们之所以赢得选举,部分原因是打着反对党内建制派的旗号竞选。“杰弗里斯愿意与我们各退一步吗?”拉布问道。

But some members see his caution as a liability in a moment when Democrats need to show their strength. A handful of progressive members have not committed to backing him. The incoming freshmen include democratic socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Chris Rabb who won their races in part by running against the party establishment. “Is Jeffries willing to meet us halfway?”Rabb asks.

与共和党众议院议长迈克·约翰逊不同,杰弗里斯似乎有望领导一个足够大的多数党,从而无需党团任何一翼的一致支持即可通过立法。但公开的异议者仍可能削弱他展现党内团结的努力。自今年夏天以来,这五名即将上任的社会主义派议员一直在悄悄协调策略,举行面对面会议和Zoom会议,并在群聊中交换信息,权衡如何倡导进步派事业。

Unlike Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, Jeffries appears poised to lead a majority large enough to pass legislation without unanimous support from either wing of his caucus. But vocal dissenters could still undermine his efforts to project party unity. The five incoming socialist lawmakers have been quietly coordinating their strategy since the summer, holding meetings in person and over Zoom and exchanging messages in a group chat as they weigh how to advocate for progressive causes.

他们讨论了在关键投票中可以用支持换取哪些让步、哪些程序工具可以赋予他们更大的影响力,以及能否争取其他对党派方向不满的议员。这个团体的规模略大于所谓的“小队”——过去近十年来一直推动民主党采取极左立场的一群议员——而且它尚未敲定一份正式的诉求清单,更不用说为这个党内初生的社会主义派翼命名了。

They have discussed what concessions they might extract for support on pivotal votes, which procedural tools could give them greater influence, and whether they could enlist other lawmakers dissatisfied with the party's direction. The group is slightly larger than the so-called Squad , the group of legislators that has been pushing Democrats to take far-left positions for the better part of a decade, and it’s yet to settle on a formal list of demands, let alone a name for the nascent socialist wing of the party.

“每一分筹码都需要摆到桌面上,”该团体成员、即将上任的纽约州众议员克莱尔·瓦尔迪兹说,她目前称她的同志们为“集团”。

“Every piece of leverage needs to be on the table,” says incoming Representative Claire Valdez of New York, a member of the group, who refers to her comrades as “the bloc” for now.

这些新人与已经在国会中的进步派人士协调行动,可能会要求就全民医保、废除移民及海关执法局以及阻止向以色列出售武器进行投票。新泽西州众议员、温和派民主党人乔什·戈特海默表示:“如果他们开始推动全民医保,那会在党团内部引发很多政治问题。”“为了确保我们真正赢得白宫,拿出一个切实可行的议程对我们来说是明智之举。”

The newcomers, in coordination with progressives already in Congress, may call for votes on Medicare for All , abolishing ICE , and blocking weapons sales to Israel . “If they start pushing Medicare for All, that causes a lot of political problems within the caucus,” says Representative Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, a moderate democrat . “To ensure we actually win the White House, it would be smart for us to put out a practical agenda.”

对杰弗里斯来说,以色列问题可能更加棘手。他长期支持这个犹太国家,其布鲁克林选区包括一个正统派犹太社区。过去一年里,近半数众议院民主党人投票支持切断对以色列的援助。密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和海莉·史蒂文斯因以色列政策公开决裂,提醒人们注意表面之下涌动的分歧。

Israel may be an even dicier issue for Jeffries, a longtime supporter of the Jewish state whose Brooklyn district includes an Orthodox community. Over the past year, nearly half of House Democrats voted to cut off aid to Israel . The public falling-out between Michigan Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens over Israel policy offered a reminder of the divisions bubbling beneath the surface.

杰弗里斯如何执行共识是一个悬而未决的问题。在两位中间派民主党人——缅因州众议员贾里德·戈尔登和华盛顿州众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯——于9月在一次程序性投票中背离本党之后,民主党领导人讨论了建立护栏以限制内部异见的方案。杰弗里斯领导团队提出的一个想法是,惩罚那些投票反对本党自身立法程序规则的成员,这可能使他们失去梦寐以求的委员会职务或领导职位。

How Jeffries enforces consensus is an open question. After two centrist Democrats, Representatives Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, broke with their party on a procedural vote in September, Democratic leaders discussed establishing guardrails to limit dissent within the ranks. One idea, proposed by Jeffries’ leadership team, was to penalize members who voted against the party’s own procedural rules governing legislation, potentially costing them coveted committee assignments or leadership positions.

另一个想法是将成员在党团内晋升的能力与其对民主党国会竞选委员会的捐款挂钩。这些建议立即引发进步派的强烈反对,他们认为这些提议是在新一代左翼议员准备进入国会之际巩固权力的企图。来自丹佛、得到美国民主社会主义者组织支持的进步派候任众议员梅拉特·基罗斯表示:“我认为这很荒谬。”“他们因为其他成员不配合他们的议程而惩罚这些人,这与美国人民的意愿直接冲突。”

Another idea tied a member’s ability to advance within the caucus to their financial contributions to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The suggestions sparked quick backlash from progressives, who saw the proposals as an attempt to consolidate power just as a new generation of left-wing lawmakers was preparing to enter Congress. “I think it's ludicrous,” says incoming Representative Melat Kiros, a DSA-backed progressive from Denver. “For them to be punishing other members for not meeting their agenda goes in direct conflict with what the American people want.”

杰弗里斯在华盛顿举行的中期选举之夜观选派对上与记者交谈。汤姆·布伦纳—盖蒂图片社Jeffries speaks with reporters during a midterm election night watch party in Washington. Tom Brenner—Getty Images

杰弗里斯在华盛顿的中期选举之夜观选派对上与记者交谈。——汤姆·布伦纳——盖蒂图片社其中一些分歧直指一个自2024年败选以来民主党一直难以回答的核心问题:他们重返国家权力的道路,是拥抱其崛起中的左翼所倡导的经济民粹主义,还是重建那个曾让他们在全国更具竞争力的、意识形态更为多元的联盟。两个派系都认为这场选举证明了各自路线的正确。

Jeffries speaks with reporters during a midterm election night watch party in Washington. —Tom Brenner—Getty Images Some of these disagreements go to the heart of a question Democrats have struggled to answer since their defeat in 2024: whether their path back to national power lies in embracing the economic populism championed by their ascendant left wing or rebuilding the more ideologically diverse coalition that once made them more competitive nationally. Both factions believe the election vindicated their approach.

科罗拉多州众议员杰森·克劳曾帮助在竞争激烈的选区招募民主党候选人,他说,民主党才刚刚开始赢回工薪阶层和农村社区的选民,不能浪费这一成果。“民主党必须非常诚实地承认,我们过去做得不够,”克劳说,并补充说人们想要一个“能够对世界和美国人生活变化之快作出回应的政府”。

Representative Jason Crow of Colorado, who helped recruit Democratic candidates in competitive districts, says the party has just started bringing back voters in working-class and rural communities and can’t squander that. “The Democratic Party has to be very honest that we have fallen short in the past,” Crow says, adding that people want a government “that can respond to how quickly the world and Americans' lives are changing."

中期选举或许证明了美国民众希望在国会中对特朗普形成制衡。但对于选民愿意把什么样的民主党送回白宫,这场选举没有给出明确答案。未来两年将提供塑造这场讨论的机会,而2028年涌现的候选人将不得不应对民主党尚未解决的种种分歧。“如果我们搞砸了,”加列戈说,“那些选民会在2028年立刻转回共和党,我们就会输掉下一场选举。”

The midterm election may have proven that Americans sought a check on Trump in Congress. But it offered no clear answer about the kind of Democratic Party voters would be willing to send back to the White House. The next two years will offer an opportunity to shape that conversation, and the candidates who emerge in 2028 will have to navigate the divisions that Democrats have yet to resolve. “If we mess up,” says Gallego, “those voters will swing right back to Republicans in 2028, and we'll lose the next election.”

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