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我们的民主曾命悬一线。它得以维系,真正的原因在这里Our Democracy Was Hanging by a Thread. Here’s the Real Reason It Held.

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周二,选民在加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡的海洋公园排队等候。阿普·戈麦斯/盖蒂图片社Voters waiting at Marine Park, in Santa Monica, California, on Tuesday. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

为你精选一个鲜为人知的故事,讲述特朗普如何改变法律——或者法律如何反击——并让你随时了解《Slate》法学团队的最新动态。

that highlights one under-the-radar story about how Trump is changing the law—or how the law is pushing back—and keeps you posted on the latest from Slate’s Jurisprudence team.

尽管人们有理由担心,1月6日事件背后的势力会竭尽全力操纵我们的选举,但到周二晚间已经清楚,刚刚结束的美国中期选举经受住了总统唐纳德·特朗普的持续攻击。如今,到了第二天早上,我们完全有理由相信,美国参议院和众议院的当选者将能够在明年1月和平就职,民主党将重新夺回两院的控制权。投票站没有出现移民和海关执法局(ICE)探员,没有司法部官员质疑选民资格,也没有联邦探员强迫州和地方选举官员搁置被指称来自非公民的选票。

Despite legitimate fears that the forces behind Jan. 6 would do their utmost to manipulate our elections, it was clear by Tuesday night that the just-concluded U.S. midterms survived President Donald Trump’s relentless attacks. Now, the morning after, there is every reason to believe that U.S. Senate and House winners will be able to peaceably assume office in January, with Democrats regaining control of both houses. There were no ICE agents at polls, Department of Justice officials challenging voters, or federal agents forcing state and local election officials to set aside ballots from alleged noncitizens.

各州能够向选民邮寄选票。共和党籍众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在1月3日将不再担任议长,他不会试图阻止民主党获胜者就任。周二深夜,他承认民主党将控制众议院。

States were able to mail ballots to voters. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who will no longer be speaker on Jan. 3, won’t try to block the seating of Democratic victors. Late Tuesday night, he acknowledged that Democrats will control the House.

我们目前的处境还算不错,这并不是因为特朗普的攻击软弱无力,也不是因为我们的选举制度足够强大,更不是因为我们只是运气好——尽管巨大的票数优势确实让事情变得“大到无法操纵”。特朗普以某种让2020年显得无害的方式干预我们民主的风险相当严重,正是数千名律师和选举管理人员以及公民社会关键部分的艰苦努力,才使这一威胁没有成为现实。

We are in decent shape not because Trump’s attacks were weak, or because our electoral system is strong, or because we were just lucky—although the huge margins did make things “too big to rig.”The risk that Trump would interfere with our democracy in a way that made 2020 look harmless was quite serious, and it took the laborious efforts of thousands of lawyers and election administrators, along with key parts of civil society, to neutralize the threat from materializing.

然而:我们不能对今后针对美国民主的攻击放松警惕。不过就目前而言,我们可以确信,那些企图颠覆美国选举的人到2028年时将处于弱势得多的境地,届时在任的选举否认者会更少,可能通过新的限制性投票法的州议会也会更少。

And yet: We cannot let our guard down against future attacks on American democracy. For now, though, we can be sure that those who would subvert U.S. elections will be in much weaker shape come 2028, with fewer election deniers in office, and fewer state legislatures likely to pass new, restrictive voting laws.

先看看门柱挪动了多远。在选举日晚投票结束前,哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS News)资深白宫记者魏佳江在X平台发帖称,尽管总统顾问担心美国参议院的多数优势可能“极其微弱”,但“特朗普不打算施压官员拒绝认证结果或宣布戒严,但他们将检查是否存在违规情况”。这条关于总统“计划”的评论极其平淡,甚至没有配警报表情符号。该帖子未促使主要新闻机构发送突发新闻推送。美国民众已将其内化为常识:总统可能会考虑试图阻挠民主选举的结果,甚至可能将武装部队部署到街头。

Let’s start with how much the goal posts have moved. Before polls closed on election night, CBS News senior White House reporter Weijia Jiang posted on X that although the president’s advisers were concerned about potentially “razor thin” U.S. Senate margins, “Trump is not planning to push officials not to certify results or declare martial law, but they will be checking for irregularities.”The comment about the president’s “plans” was remarkably matter-of-fact, unaccompanied by siren emojis. The post did not cause major news outlets to send alerts. It was already baked into Americans’ understanding that the president might contemplate trying to block the results of democratically conducted elections, potentially putting armed troops into the streets.

唐纳德·特朗普在第二任期内,将其对选举公信力的持续攻击——据《纽约时报》统计,本任期内他已提出460天且仍在继续的舞弊指控——与实际行动相匹配。他试图强迫联邦机构更改选民在联邦选举中使用的表格,要求提供公民身份证明文件。他同样试图强迫美国邮政服务(USPS)匆忙采用管辖选举邮寄的严格规则,这将导致邮政服务在2026年停止接受任何州的邮寄选票。

Donald Trump in his second term matched his nonstop attacks on election integrity—he has made claims of rigged elections 460 days and counting during this term, according to a New York Times tally—with real actions. He tried to force a federal agency to change the form voters can use to in federal elections to require documentary proof of citizenship. He likewise tried to muscle the United States Postal Service into a rush adoption of strict rules governing election mailings that would have stopped USPS from accepting mail ballots from any state in 2026.

他试图通过三份单独的紧急请愿书,将这一变更强行塞给最高法院。他的司法部在试图让各州移交包含社会安全号码等个人信息的未经编辑选民名册、以制作所谓的公民名单(无疑会被用来剥夺合格选民的投票权)方面,战绩为0胜27负。他让国土安全部特工骚扰并逮捕一些被指控选举舞弊的人,往往缺乏可靠证据。他的司法部威胁加利福尼亚州选举官员,若不违反州法和联邦法律将选票隔离以备潜在剥夺投票权,将面临刑事起诉。

He tried to shove that change down the Supreme Court’s throat with three separate emergency petitions. His DOJ went 0-for-27 in attempting to get states to hand over unredacted voter rolls containing personal information like Social Security numbers, to make a purported citizenship list that no doubt would have been used to disenfranchise eligible voters. He had Department of Homeland Security agents harass people and arrest some accused of voter fraud, often without reliable evidence. His DOJ threatened California election officials with criminal prosecution if they didn’t break state and federal law by segregating ballots for potential disenfranchisement.

人们确实担心特朗普会走得更远,例如在各州统计选票和认证结果期间,扣押选票或投票机。人们还担心他会援引《叛乱法》或宣布进入国家紧急状态,以此为借口实施联邦层面的选举接管。他公开表示希望联邦政府接管民主党执政州的选举。他的政府拒绝绝对排除派遣移民与海关执法局(ICE)官员或其他特工前往投票站,或承诺不干预各州的选举认证。

There were legitimate concerns Trump would go further, such as by seizing ballots or voting machines while states were tabulating ballots and certifying results. People also worried he would invoke the Insurrection Act or declare a national emergency as a pretext for a federal election takeover. He publicly said he wanted a federal takeover of elections in Democratic states. His administration refused to categorically rule out sending ICE officers or other agents to the polls, or to abstain from messing with state election certifications.

这一切都没有发生,这证明了多年来极其艰苦工作的成效。挽救美国民主的不是某一个个人或团体。多年来一直在一线为投票权而战的民权律师,转而对抗窃取选举的企图。非营利选举保护组织动员公民、商界和宗教领袖,增强对受威胁选举官员的支持。基金会和选民挺身而出,为这项高强度工作提供资金。民主党和共和党的选举官员进行了推演,设想如果司法部带着搜查令扣押选票或逮捕选举管理人员该怎么办。

That none of this happened is a testament to the very hard work that has been underway for years. It was not just one individual or group that saved American democracy. Civil rights lawyers, who have been in the trenches for years fighting for voting rights, pivoted to fighting against attempts to steal elections. Nonprofit election protection organizations mobilized civic, business, and religious leaders to bolster support for threatened election officials. Foundations and voters stepped up to fund this intense work. Democratic and Republican election officials conducted war games, considering what to do if the DOJ showed up with warrants for ballots or to arrest election administrators.

公民团体动员起来,以防ICE特工出现在投票站。法院审理紧急选举案件,往往是在极其压缩的时间表上,各个法律和政治光谱上的法官都坚守了底线。记者们不懈地探究选举运行中的薄弱环节,向特朗普政府追问,并公正地报道了风险。选民大批涌向投票站,将民主与腐败并列为投票时的主要关切。他们拒绝了那些想在2028年掌管选举的选举否认者。

Citizen groups mobilized in case ICE agents showed up at the polls. Courts decided emergency election cases, often on absurdly compressed timetables, and judges across the legal and political spectrum held the line. Journalists relentlessly explored the weak spots in how elections are run, pressed the Trump administration for answers, and reported fairly about the risks. Voters turned out in droves and named democracy as one of their primary concerns, along with corruption, for their votes. They rejected election deniers who wanted to run elections in 2028.

周二晚间,民主党的惨败变得明朗之际,特朗普对《纽约时报》表示:“我绝对愿意接受这些结果。”这固然好,但那些小动作可能还没有完全结束。他的司法部周二暗示,如果结果显示现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文在阿拉斯加州参议院竞选中以微弱劣势落败,司法部可能仍会反对认证该场美国参议院选举的结果。司法部还向民主党的律师和党务官员发出了目标信函,暗示他们可能面临起诉,理由是涉嫌与候选人丹尼尔·J·沙利文合谋参加参议院竞选,以迷惑选民并帮助民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉。

As the Democrats’ shellacking became clear on Tuesday evening, Trump told the Times, “I am absolutely willing to accept those results.”That’s good, but the shenanigans may not be fully over. His Justice Department signaled Tuesday that it may still push against the certification of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska should results show that incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan narrowly lost the race. It also sent target letters to Democratic lawyers and party officials suggesting that they could face possible indictment for allegedly conspiring with candidate Daniel J. Sullivan to run in the Senate race to confuse voters and help Democratic candidate Mary Peltola.

尽管如此,即便最顽固的选举否认者也除了认输别无他法。得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿曾在2022年站在特朗普推翻选举结果法律战的最前线,他于周二晚间认输,并向当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科表示祝贺。帕克斯顿的反应并非人们直到他做出表态那一刻之前可能预料到的结果,但正是民主制度众多守护者的努力,使他别无选择。

That said, even the staunchest election deniers could do nothing but concede defeat. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who on the front lines of Trump’s legal efforts to overturn the vote in 2022, conceded defeat on Tuesday night, congratulating Sen.-elect James Talarico. Paxton’s response was not the outcome one might have predicted up until the very moment it was made, but such was the work of democracy’s many protectors that it was his only choice.

至于接下来会怎样,特朗普或许不会在2028年重演他颠覆选举的企图,因为届时他个人将没有任何利害关系。我希望他能从这个问题上抽身。但这并不意味着美国已经脱离危险。特朗普在2020年和2026年的行为暴露了这个国家的脆弱之处,而下一个想当独裁者的人可能更加冷酷、也更加能干。

As for what’s next, Trump may not try to repeat his election subversion attempts in 2028, when he will have nothing personally on the line. My hope is that he disengages from the issue. But that does not mean the U.S. is out of danger. Trump’s actions in 2020 and 2026 revealed the nation’s vulnerabilities, and the next would-be authoritarian might be more ruthless and more competent.

我们不应在回顾2026年时觉得,对抗反民主势力的动员是反应过度或没有必要。我们应该感到自豪,因为得益于成千上万人的努力,这个制度经受住了一轮强大的冲击。

We should not walk away from 2026 feeling as if the mobilization against the forces of antidemocracy was overkill or unnecessary. We should be proud that, thanks to the efforts of thousands of people, the system held against a powerful barrage.

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