
昨天的选举在很多方面都非同寻常。民主党人掌控了国会两院,这是对特朗普政府的压倒性否定,他们在长期由共和党把持的州赢得了参议院席位:堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州,甚至令人震惊地在南卡罗来纳州也取得了胜利。民主党在众议院的获胜优势是自理查德·尼克松水门事件后中期选举惨败以来任何政党中最大的。如果说唐纳德·特朗普2024年的胜利标志着美国向更保守方向的一次“氛围转变”——正如许多评论人士当时所主张的那样——那么氛围已经再次转变,而且这次要明确得多。
In many ways, yesterday’s election was extraordinary. Democrats took control of both houses of Congress in an overwhelming rebuke to the Trump administration, winning Senate seats in states long held by Republicans: Kansas, Texas, and even, stunningly, South Carolina. The Democratic margin of victory in the House of Representatives is the largest for any party since Richard Nixon’s post-Watergate midterm wipeout. If Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 marked a “vibe shift” toward a more conservative America, as many pundits argued at the time, the vibe has shifted once again, and far more definitively.
但在最重要的意义上,选举日却正常得令人惊叹。全美各地的人们和平投票,没有受到党派行为者或联邦政府的干扰。选举官员清点选票。赢家被宣布,输家承认败选。“当然,我会接受”选举结果,特朗普昨天深夜在给福克斯新闻的电话中说。“我为什么不接受呢?”尽管特朗普表现得满不在乎,但他的默许——以及选举日当天及之后数小时的平静进程——并非理所当然。
But in the way that counted most, Election Day was astoundingly normal. People across America peacefully cast their ballot without interference from partisan actors or the federal government. Election officials counted their votes. Winners were declared, and losers conceded. “Sure, I’ll accept” the results of the election, Trump said in a late-night phone call to Fox News yesterday. “Why wouldn’t I?”For all Trump’s nonchalance, his acquiescence—and the calm proceedings of Election Day and the hours after—was not a given.
这位总统曾在2020年选举日之后的数小时里坚称,“坦率地说,我们确实赢得了这次选举”,而在过去几个月里,他一直致力于策划共和党中期选举的胜利,并在其支持者中煽动对任何不利于他的结果之公正性的怀疑。政府官员拒绝排除向投票站派遣军队或联邦探员的设想,并宣布计划在全国部署数量空前的司法部选举监督员,主要针对非白人人口众多的蓝区。
The president, who famously insisted in the hours after Election Day 2020 that, “frankly, we did win this election,” has spent the past several months pushing to engineer a GOP midterm victory and stir up doubt among his supporters over the integrity of any result that did not favor him. Administration officials refused to rule out the idea of sending troops or federal agents to the polls, and announced plans to deploy an unprecedented number of Department of Justice election monitors across the country, largely to blue areas with significant nonwhite populations.
邮政管理局曾试图让选举官员实际上无法管理邮寄投票,随后最高法院介入并否决了这一方案。国土安全部梳理了公开数据,以识别选民名册上所谓的非公民,并威胁各州将这些选民移除。司法部试图迫使各州交出敏感的选民信息,警告选举官员他们可能面临起诉,并起诉阿拉斯加州,以抢先阻止该州参议院竞选的认证。
The Postal Service attempted to make mail-in voting essentially impossible for election officials to administer, before the Supreme Court stepped in and rejected the scheme. The Department of Homeland Security combed through public data to identify supposed noncitizens on the voter rolls, and threatened states into removing these voters. The Justice Department sought to force states to hand over sensitive voter information, warned election officials that they might face prosecution, and sued Alaska to preemptively block certification of the state’s Senate race.
司法部和国土安全部还大肆宣传对100多名被控非法投票或登记投票者的刑事案件,助长了右翼关于选民欺诈普遍存在的叙事。
DOJ and DHS also trumpeted criminal cases against more than 100 people for allegedly voting or registering to vote illegally, feeding a right-wing narrative of widespread voter fraud.
因此,可以理解的是,中期选举是在一种焦虑的氛围中进行的。全国各地出现了一些小故障:例如,在纽约州威彻斯特县,投票机难以扫描似乎印在过厚纸张上的选票。但选举过程并未出现重大意外。只有在少数几起小事件中,司法部的投票监督员与选举工作人员发生了摩擦。国土安全部在网上发布了令人不安的警告,称“如果你非法投票,我们会找到你”,但移民官员并未被派往投票站。
Understandably, then, the midterms took place in an environment of anxiety. Minor glitches popped up across the country: In Westchester County, New York, for example, voting machines struggled to scan ballots apparently printed on too-thick paper. But no major surprises shaped the election process. Only in a few minor instances did DOJ’s poll monitors tangle with election workers. The Department of Homeland Security posted ominous warnings online that “if you vote illegally, we will find you,” but immigration officers were not sent to the polls.
“昨晚非常平静,”全国选举官员协会首席项目官塔米·帕特里克今天上午告诉我。她指出,压倒性的投票统计是选举过程顺利的原因之一:压倒性选举本来就更难被质疑。“选举管理者的祈祷词是‘高投票率,大差距’,”帕特里克说。
“Last night was very quiet,” Tammy Patrick, the chief programs officer for the National Association of Election Officials, told me this morning. She pointed to the sweeping vote tallies as one reason for the smooth election process: A wave election is simply harder to contest. “The election administrator’s prayer is ‘High turnout, wide margins,’” Patrick said.
帕特里克将功劳归于选民和选举官员双方的充分准备。更多选民选择提前亲自投票,这很可能是对特朗普政府改变美国邮政局处理邮寄选票方式的担忧作出的回应。与此同时,选举工作人员在联邦政府刑事指控的威胁下坚持了下来,并凭借不懈的规划,成功应对了确实发生的挑战——例如炸弹恶作剧和火警。“选举专业人员经受了考验,他们挺了过来,”帕特里克说。
Patrick credited preparation by both voters and election officials. More voters chose to cast their ballots early and in person, likely in response to worries around the Trump administration’s changes to USPS’s handling of mail-in ballots. Election workers, meanwhile, held up under threats of criminal charges from the federal government and were able to navigate the challenges that did occur—such as bomb hoaxes and fire alarms—thanks to relentless planning. “Election professionals were tested and they came out on the other side,” Patrick said.
今天上午,大多数否认选举结果者保持沉默。许多在高关注度竞选中落败的共和党候选人——尽管并非全部——已承认败选。特朗普本人似乎对提出所谓选举舞弊的指控不感兴趣,他告诉《纽约时报》将“期待与”民主党控制的国会“合作”,并在 Truth Social 上坚称,如果他出现在选票上,“我们会以压倒性优势获胜!”共和党籍众议长迈克·约翰逊昨晚承认,失去多数党地位令他“感到失望”。
This morning, most election deniers have been quiet. Many losing Republican candidates in high-profile races—though not all—have conceded. Trump, for his part, has seemed uninterested in raising claims about supposed election fraud, telling The New York Times that he will “look forward to working” with a Democratic Congress and insisting on Truth Social that had he been on the ballot, “we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson acknowledged late yesterday that he was “disappointed” to have lost his majority.
选举尚未完全结束。全国范围内的选票统计仍在继续,阿拉斯加和——令人意外的是——密西西比州的胶着参议院竞选将受到密切关注。“选举日后的时期是关于选举舞弊的虚假和误导性说法的高风险期,特别是在需要更长时间才能宣布结果的胶着竞选中,”民主与技术中心选举与民主项目负责人蒂姆·哈珀警告说。从现在到 1 月 3 日新一届国会就职这几个月,可能还会出现恶意破坏民主党胜利的努力。美国选举管理方式仍存在严重问题,包括对选举基础设施的系统性资金不足。
The election is not entirely over. Ballot-counting continues across the country, and tight Senate races will be closely scrutinized in Alaska and—surprisingly—Mississippi. “The period after Election Day is especially high-risk for false and misleading claims about election fraud, particularly in close races that take longer to call,” cautioned Tim Harper, who leads the Elections and Democracy project at the Center for Democracy and Technology. The months between now and January 3, when the new Congress is seated, may yet feature bad-faith efforts to undermine the Democratic victory. And there remain serious problems with how America administers its elections, including the systematic underfunding of election infrastructure.
但选举日的极度正常本身就是美国民主的一场胜利——一场来之不易的胜利,得益于选举官员、公民社会组织以及拒绝特朗普政府为共和党拉票努力的选民的非凡付出。选民在投票箱前对特朗普威权主义的否定,代表了一个迟到已久的民主复兴机会。美国选举制度在巨大压力下经受住考验,这本身就是一个充满希望的重要理由。
But the sheer normalcy of Election Day is nevertheless a victory for democracy in America—a hard-fought one, made possible by the remarkable efforts of election officials, civil-society organizations, and voters who rejected the Trump administration’s efforts to swing the vote for Republicans. The repudiation of Trump’s authoritarianism at the ballot box represents a long-overdue opportunity for democratic renewal. The fact that the American electoral system held up under extraordinary pressure is itself a major reason to be hopeful.