在当今两极分化的美国，似乎不可能建立一个在任何事情上都达成共识的大规模选民联盟。但唐纳德·特朗普总统在美国的中期选举中取得了一项非凡成就：他让全国大部分选民联合起来谴责他的总统任期。11月3日，民主党赢得了自1976年以来众议院最大的普选票胜利，并控制了参议院以及数十个全州范围的公职。共和党究竟哪里出了这么大的问题？
In today’s polarised America, it would seem impossible to build a sizeable coalition of voters who agree on anything. But President Donald Trump achieved something remarkable in America’s midterm elections: he united much of the country in rebuking his presidency. On November 3rd the Democratic Party won the largest popular-vote victory for the House of Representatives since 1976, and took control of the Senate as well as dozens of statewide offices. Where did it all go so wrong for the Republicans?
上图显示了根据“公民健康与选举项目”（CHEP）发布的一项大型民调，2024年的选民在2026年流向何方。图表说明了民主党如何赢得了2024年未投票的新选民，以及特朗普2024年联盟中的一部分选民。根据我们与YouGov的民调，特朗普的全国净支持率为-27。在CHEP的数据中，62%的受访者表示不支持总统。在2024年或2026年投票的人中，四分之三这次支持了民主党。
The chart above shows where voters of 2024 ended up in 2026, according to a large poll published by the Civic Health and Elections Project (CHEP). It illustrates how Democrats won over new voters, who did not turn out in 2024, as well as a chunk of Mr Trump’s 2024 coalition. According to our polling with YouGov, Mr Trump has a -27 approval rating nationwide. In the CHEP data, 62% of respondents said they disapproved of the president. Of those who voted in 2024 or 2026, three-quarters backed Democrats this time.
2026年赢家 这场溃败的震中位于共和党的大本营——南部。在德克萨斯州，这个曾经是共和党皇冠上明珠的州，民主党赢得了参议员和州长两项选举。堪萨斯州选民选出了一名民主党参议员，这是自1932年以来的首次。在南卡罗来纳州，特朗普亲自挑选的提名人被一位从未担任过民选职务的医生击败。民主党在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的参议院选举中也以压倒性优势获胜。
2026 winner The epicentre of the rout was in the Republicans’ own backyard—the South. In Texas, once the jewel in their crown, Democrats won elections to both the Senate and the governors’ office. Voters in Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932. In South Carolina, Mr Trump’s hand-picked nominee was defeated by a doctor who has never before held elected office. Democrats won by landslide margins in Senate elections in Georgia and North Carolina, too.
这次摇摆部分源于黑人选民的投票率。佐治亚州选出了自1998年以来的首位民主党州长。最高法院在“路易斯安那州诉卡莱斯案”中的裁决削弱了对非裔美国选民的投票权保护，共和党可能因此受损：在深南部各州，黑人占多数的县投票率保持得比白人占多数的县好得多；在其他地方，不存在这种差异。
The swing was in part a result of turnout among black voters. Georgia elected a Democratic governor for the first time since 1998. Republicans may have been burned by the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v Callais ruling, which weakened voting-rights protections for African-American voters: in states in the deep South, turnout held up much better in black-majority counties than in white-majority ones; elsewhere, there was no such disparity.
另一个引人注目的转变来自西班牙裔选民——民主党策略师在2024年大选结果出炉后曾担心他们已永久失去这一群体。在得克萨斯州南部边境地区，詹姆斯·塔拉里科成功赢回了那些2020年投票给乔·拜登、2024年却支持特朗普的县。在佛罗里达州，民主党人最大的收获出现在迈阿密-戴德县和奥西奥拉县——这两个西班牙裔占多数的县曾在2012年至2024年间助推该州向右转。而在堪萨斯州农村、西班牙裔占多数的苏厄德县，亚当·汉密尔顿将卡玛拉·哈里斯的得票率优势提升了惊人的53个百分点。
Another remarkable swing came from Hispanic voters, whom Democratic strategists feared they had lost for good after the 2024 result. Along the southern border of Texas, James Talarico managed to win back counties that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but supported Mr Trump in 2024. In Florida, Democrats’ biggest gains were in Miami-Dade and Osceola—two majority-Hispanic counties that helped push the state to the right between 2012 and 2024. And in rural, majority-Hispanic Seward County, Kansas, Adam Hamilton improved on Kamala Harris’s margins by an eye-popping 53 percentage points.
这部分或许可以用特朗普政府在移民问题上的强硬手段来解释。许多曾经认同特朗普的选民如今认为他的执法体制残酷且具有歧视性。在归化公民占选民比例更高的县，摇摆幅度甚至比仅凭西班牙裔选民占比所能预期的还要大。
This may be explained in part by the Trump administration’s heavy-handed approach to immigration. Many voters who once identified with Mr Trump now see his enforcement regime as cruel and discriminatory. In counties where naturalised citizens make up a greater share of the electorate, the swing was even larger than you would expect from the Hispanic share of the electorate alone.
你可以在上方的图表中查看特定人口群体中的摇摆情况。例如，30岁以下的年轻选民向民主党方向移动了21个百分点。在18至24岁的年轻男性中——这一群体曾在2024年倒向特朗普——向左转的幅度达到32个百分点。民主党还成功缩小了美国受教育程度最高与最低选民之间的差距。在大量选民最高学历低于九年级水平的县，该党取得了大幅进展。在CHEP数据中，没有大学学历的受访者向民主党方向摇摆了13个百分点。
You can explore the swings among specific demographic groups in our charts above. Young voters under 30, for example, saw a 21-percentage-point move towards the Democrats. Among young men aged 18-24—a group that had swung towards Mr Trump in 2024—the shift to the left was 32 points. Democrats also managed to narrow the gap between America’s most- and least-educated voters. The party posted big gains in counties where the highest qualification of a large share of the electorate is below ninth-grade level. In the CHEP data, respondents without a college degree swung towards Democrats by 13 points.
民主党今年的胜利幅度在21世纪显得格格不入。对于那些尚未厌倦“浪潮”比喻的人，我们建议不妨称之为“蓝啸”或“民主海啸”。■
The Democrats’ victory this year was of a magnitude that appears out of place in the 21st century. For those not yet tired of wave metaphors, may we suggest “Blunami” or “Demluge”. ■