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道格·舍恩:2026年中期选举的最大赢家与最大输家DOUG SCHOEN: The biggest winner and the biggest loser in the 2026 midterms

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周二晚中期选举的大赢家是民主党。而2026年中期选举的大输家是唐纳德·J·特朗普总统。鉴于民主党周二在众议院和参议院双双取得压倒性胜利,人们不可能不得出这一结论。虽然还有一些选区的结果尚未揭晓,但显而易见的是,民主党将在国会两院均占据稳固多数,包括在南卡罗来纳、堪萨斯和得克萨斯等曾经的深红州赢得参议院席位——而在今年早些时候,这些席位还被认为对民主党来说几乎是不可能拿下的。

The big winner in the midterms on Tuesday night was the Democratic Party. And the big loser of the 2026 midterms was President Donald J. Trump. It’s impossible not to draw that conclusion given the blowout victory the Democrats won in both the House and Senate on Tuesday. While some races remain to be called, it is clear that the Democrats will have solid majorities in both houses of Congress, including winning Senate seats in formerly deep-red states like South Carolina, Kansas and Texas, which were considered, earlier in the year, virtually unachievable for Democrats.

但不要搞错,这与其说是对民主党的肯定性投票,不如说是共和党的崩溃。这是一张反对正在进行的伊朗战争的票,反对高油价的票——高油价被视为那场战争的直接结果——也是反对选民普遍看法的一张票,即政府的运作存在两套规则:一套适用于富人和精英,另一套适用于普通劳动人民。目前尚不清楚的是,在选出了詹姆斯·塔拉里科(得克萨斯州)和特洛伊·杰克逊(缅因州)等一批进步派人士之后,民主党能否在参议院——以及在较小程度上在众议院——以一份同情、甚至实际上与民主社会主义者保持一致的议程,连贯而持续地施政。

But make no mistake, this is more of a collapse of the Republican Party than it is an affirmative vote for the Democrats. This is a vote against the war in Iran as it’s being conducted, against high gas prices — which are seen as a direct result of that war — and against the overall perception among voters that there are two sets of rules for how government works: one for the rich and elites and another for ordinary working people. What remains unknown is whether the Democrats, having elected a number of progressives like James Talarico in Texas and Troy Jackson in Maine, will be able to govern coherently and consistently in the Senate, and to a lesser extent in the House, with an agenda that is sympathetic to or actually aligned with the democratic socialists.

这些民主党人能否连贯地应对共和党和特朗普在过去两年中未能应对的挑战?不要搞错,周二的结果与其说是对民主党的肯定性投票,不如说标志着共和党的崩溃。人们深感担忧的是,民主党用来掩盖其建制派与极左进步派之间深刻分歧的方式,将不是政策,而是调查。而如果情况果真如此,我们在过去两年中已经看到的国会瘫痪程度,只会成为一个更加严峻的现实。

Will these Democrats be able to coherently address the challenges that the Republicans and Trump have been unable to address in the last two years? Make no mistake, Tuesday’s results signal a collapse of the Republican Party more than an affirmative vote for the Democrats. The fear is great that the way Democrats will paper over these profound differences between their establishment wing and their far-left progressive wing will be not with policy but with investigations. And if that is the case, the degree of paralysis we’ve already seen in the last two years in Congress will only become a more stark reality.

共和党人和总统与民主党人尝试建设性合作执政的机会清晰而明显。选民们已经非常明确地表明,特朗普总统那种一味将对手妖魔化的做法,不是可接受或恰当的执政方式。这就是为什么他是周二晚上的最大输家,也是为什么民主党人是最大赢家。传递给两党的信息很明确:要建设性地执政,如果不这样做,后果自负。

The opportunity for the Republicans and the president to try to govern constructively with the Democrats is clear and obvious. Voters are making it abundantly clear that President Trump’s approach of simply demonizing the opposition is not an acceptable or appropriate way to govern. That is why he is the biggest loser of Tuesday night, and it’s also why the Democrats are the biggest winners. The message to both parties is clear: Govern constructively, and if you don’t, it’s at your peril.

我们刚刚目睹的针对共和党的同样摇摆,如果民主党人不理会这一评判,短短两年内也可能发生在他们身上。民主党人,并对公众关于伊朗战争、腐败和通胀的关切作出负责任的回应。如果他们不这样做,同样,后果自负。我们国家现在很多人把政治视为血腥运动。美国人民在周二所说的是,他们相比党派标签,更关心把事情办成。希望今后,最大的赢家将是美国人民。但这绝非确定之事。来自道格·舍恩

The same swing against the Republicans we’ve just witnessed can happen in two short years to Democrats if they do not heed this judgment. emocrats and respond responsibly to public concerns about the Iran war, corruption and inflation. And if they don’t, again, it’s at their peril. Many people in our country currently see politics as a bloodsport. What the American people said on Tuesday is that they are less concerned with partisan labels than with getting things done. Hopefully, going forward, the big winner will be the American people. But that’s by no means certain. FROM DOUG SCHOEN

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