
民主党人在周二迎来了他们梦寐以求的“蓝色浪潮”,在创下有记录以来最昂贵的中期选举周期中,以令人惊叹的方式赢得了众议院和参议院的多数席位。中期选举结果对该党来说是一场巨大的胜利,该党在上届总统选举中遭受了惨痛的失利。这为民主党人在特朗普总统第二任期结束前提供了一个真正遏制其权力的机会。
Democrats pulled off the blue wave of their dreams on Tuesday, winning the House and Senate majorities in a stunning cap to the most expensive midterm election cycle on record. The midterm results are a massive victory for the party, which suffered bruising losses in the last presidential election. It gives Democrats a real chance of curbing President Trump’s power through the end of his second term.
对于共和党人来说这是一个黯淡的夜晚,从俄亥俄州——共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米在经历了一则充满争议的最后关头竞选广告后败给了民主党人埃米·阿克顿,到缅因州——连任五届的现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯被民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊击败。截至美东时间凌晨3点,选举结果仍在统计中,但决策台总部预计民主党将在众议院赢得258个席位、在参议院赢得55个席位,并在全国各地赢得一系列州长宝座的易手。
It was a bleak night for Republicans, from Ohio, where GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy fell to Democrat Amy Acton after a controversial last-ditch ad, to Maine, where five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins was toppled by Democrat Troy Jackson. Results were still rolling in as of 3 a.m. ET, but Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) expected Democrats to win 258 seats in the House and 55 in the Senate – plus a string of flips in governor's mansions across the country.
以下是本次中期选举中的最大输家和赢家:特朗普总统在周二遭到选民的强烈谴责,尽管他本人并未参选。他所在的党派失去了国会两院的多数席位,且失利幅度超出预期。这使得特朗普在未来两年里将与权力大增的民主党人展开较量,并将使总统确认法官和其他被任命者变得更加艰难。如果不与民主党合作,立法胜利将是不可能的。
Here are the biggest losers and winners of the midterms: President Trump received a loud repudiation from voters on Tuesday, even though he wasn’t on the ballot. His party lost its majorities in both chambers of Congress, and by wider than expected margins. It leaves Trump tangling with empowered Democrats for the next two years, and will make it tougher for the president to confirm judges and other appointees. Legislative victories will be impossible without working with Democrats.
上一次特朗普担任总统而民主党掌控国会多数席位时,总统曾两次遭到弹劾。展望未来,这是一种切实存在的可能性,尽管这对双方都蕴含着风险。总统通常在中期选举中会失去众议院和参议院的席位,但共和党在此次选举中的损失十分惨重。特朗普决定对伊朗发动一场推高天然气和化肥价格的战争,以及与加拿大展开关税战,这两项决定都遭到了反噬。
The last time Trump was president and Democrats held congressional majorities, the president was impeached twice. That’s a real possibility going forward, though one that holds dangers for both sides. Presidents typically lose House and Senate seats in a midterm election, but the GOP losses in this case were severe. Trump’s decision to mount a war against Iran that raised the price of gas and fertilizer, and to engage in a tariff war with Canada both faced blowback.
他背书争议候选人的做法——最引人注目的是得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿——也适得其反。
His backing of controversial candidates, most notably Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton, also backfired.
特朗普预见到中期选举将会失利,并在全国范围推动选区重划计划,试图以此保住国会多数席位。这最终在得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等红州适得其反,并极有可能让民主党人夺得与奥巴马总统在2009年时相近规模的多数席位。孤星州的共和党人迎来了他们最糟糕的选举周期之一,参议员约翰·科宁(共和党-得克萨斯州)的席位被民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科夺走,同时得克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特(共和党)承认在连任竞选中败给民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨。
Trump saw midterm losses coming, and pushed redistricting plans across the country in an attempt to protect his congressional majorities. That ended up backfiring in red states such as Texas and Florida, and looked likely to leave Democrats with majorities in the neighborhood of those enjoyed by President Obama in 2009. Republicans in the Lone Star State saw one of their worst election cycles, losing Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) seat to Democrat James Talarico while Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) conceded his reelection to Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
这两场民主党人的胜利标志着该党数十年来首次在得克萨斯州赢得全州范围的选举。周二的选举结果标志着共和党在得克萨斯州全州主导地位的终结,即便此前该党曾重新划分国会选区以在众议院竞选中获得助力。这股蓝色浪潮似乎也有望席卷该州议会,并实现长期由红党把持的州级职位(包括得克萨斯州主计长和得克萨斯州铁路委员)的易手。
The pair of Democratic victories mark the party's first statewide wins in Texas in decades. Tuesday's results mark the end of Republicans' statewide dominance in Texas, even after the party redistricted its congressional lines to get a boost in House races. The blue wave also looked poised to flood through the state Legislature and flip long-red state roles, including the Texas comptroller and Texas railroad commissioner.
埃隆·马斯克在全国各地尤其是得克萨斯州进行巨额支出后,也遭受了打击。一方面,马斯克的资金对共和党至关重要,因为他们的筹款优势成为该党在原本充满挑战的中期选举环境中的一个亮点。然而,这些资金并不足以抵挡得克萨斯州的政治巨变,该州自1990年以来未曾选出过民主党州长,自1988年以来也未曾选出过民主党参议员。
Elon Musk also suffered a blow after spending heavily across the country, especially in Texas. On the one hand, Musk's spending was critical for Republicans as their fundraising advantage served as one bright spot for the party in what was otherwise a challenging midterm environment. Yet, those dollars were not enough to withstand the seismic political shifts in Texas, who have not elected a Democratic governor since 1990 or a Democratic senator since 1988.
尽管获得了特朗普的支持以及总统和万斯的多次造访,拉马斯瓦米在竞选最后几天播放了一则充满争议的广告后,还是输掉了俄亥俄州长竞选。这位亿万富翁生物科技企业家将数百万个人资金投入2026年州长竞选,但最终败给阿克顿,后者目前有望成为大约15年来首位通过选举担任该职务的民主党人。拉马斯瓦米还得到了即将卸任的州长的支持。
Despite a Trump endorsement and multiple visits from the president and Vance, Ramaswamy lost the governor's race in Ohio after running a controversial ad in the campaign's closing days. The billionaire biotech entrepreneur funneled millions of his own funds into the 2026 governor's race, but came up short against Acton, who's now on track to become the first Democrat elected to hold the office in roughly 15 years.
迈克·德温(共和党人)投入400万美元推出了一则广告,其中阿克顿疏远的母亲称这位民主党人是“骗子”,尽管阿克顿曾描述过自己遭受虐待的童年,包括她的已故继父面临强奸指控。阿克顿的兄弟菲尔·斯特恩斯(Phil Stearns)表示,在大陪审团起诉该继父后,他们的父母失去了对两人抚养权,且他们的母亲一直与该继父保持婚姻关系直至其去世。
Ramaswamy, who was also backed by term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R), put $4 million behind an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother calling the Democrat a “liar,” though Acton has described a childhood of abuse, including rape charges against her late stepfather. Acton’s brother Phil Stearns said their parents lost custody of the two of them after the stepfather was charged by a grand jury, and their mother remained married to their stepfather until his death.
这则广告被视为拉马斯瓦米的团队在民调落后情况下的最后一搏,周二的结果对这位激进的共和党人来说是一个令人震惊的失败,而这里曾被视为特朗普的地盘。堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)意外败给民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿(Adam Hamilton),这对共和党人是一个打击,也提醒人们无论在哪个州,候选人的素质依然重要。
The ad was seen as a last-ditch pitch from Ramaswamy's team as he trailed in polls, and Tuesday's results mark a stunning loss for the firebrand Republican in what had been scene as Trump territory. Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kansas) shock loss to Democrat Adam Hamilton was a blow to Republicans and a reminder that candidate quality still matters, regardless of the state.
尽管马歇尔面临着与其他共和党人相同的艰难政治环境,但他也因自己的失误而受损,汉密尔顿因而成为自1932年以来首位代表堪萨斯州的民主党参议员。在《纽约时报》报道这位妇产科医生曾就未付医疗债务起诉数百名医疗患者后,马歇尔于9月受到严格审查。据该报报道,有80多名患者因错过预定的出庭时间而被捕。
While Marshall dealt with the same difficult political climate as other Republicans, he was also hurt by his own missteps as Hamilton becamse the first Democratic senator to represent Kansas since 1932. Marshall attracted scrutiny in September after The New York Times reported that the OB-GYN had sued hundreds of medical patients over unpaid medical debt. Over 80 patients were arrested for missing their scheduled court appearances, according to the newspaper.
随后,马歇尔制作了一则直面这一问题的非主流广告——据《时报》报道,他的一些工作人员曾建议不要这样做。在这则广告中,马歇尔反驳了任何人因此事入狱的说法,同时承认“我们偶尔会将一些账户交给催收机构,就像几乎每家私人诊所所做的那样”。他补充说:“我参与任何患者账户的工作,在它移交给外部机构的那一分钟就结束了。”
Marshall then cut a rogue ad addressing the issue head-on -- an idea some of his staff had reportedly advised against, according to the Times. In the ad, Marshall disputed the idea that anyone was jailed over the issue while acknowledging that “we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency, just like nearly every private medical practice does.”“My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over to an outside agency,” he added.
马歇尔还面临关于是否将纳税人的钱用于竞选活动的审查,此外还有一家面包店指责马歇尔的竞选团队未支付2020年的一笔账单。马歇尔的竞选团队随后证实,他们已经结清了这笔未付账单。参议员苏珊·柯林斯(共和党-缅因州)为赢得参议院第六任期展开了强有力的竞选,但却被将参议院多数席位送给民主党的“蓝色浪潮”席卷其中。
Marshall also faced scrutiny over whether taxpayer dollars were being used for campaign activity in addition to a bakery accusing Marshall’s campaign of failing to pay a bill in 2020. Marshall’s campaign later confirmed it had rectified the unpaid bill. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) put up a strong campaign for a sixth term in the Senate but was swept up in the blue wave that delivered Democrats the upper chamber majority.
作为在偏蓝的缅因州赢得全州选举的少数共和党人之一,柯林斯是她所在政党中最脆弱的参议院现任议员之一。她本可受益于民主党内部的混乱,因为缅因州最初的参议院候选人在争议中退选,党内领袖挑选了特洛伊·杰克逊来替代他。她还竭力与特朗普保持距离,批评这位总统备受争议的关税举措,并大力宣扬其支持堕胎权的立场。
A rare Republican to win statewide in blue-leaning Maine, Collins was one of her party's most vulnerable Senate incumbents. She stood to benefit from disarray on the Democratic side, as Maine's initial Senate nominee dropped out amid controversy and party leaders picked Troy Jackson to replace him. She also took pains to keep Trump at arms' length, criticizing the president's controversial tariff moves and touting her pro-choice stance.
但杰克逊辩称,柯林斯意味着缅因州人民将继续维持现状,并猛烈抨击她与特朗普的一致立场以及她投票确认大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺进入最高法院的举动。最终,对共和党领导的华盛顿的不满将选民推向了投票箱,并在全国范围内导致了令人震惊的翻盘——柯林斯未能逃脱这场席卷。在选举日临近之际,她在“决策者数据总部”(DDHQ)的民调平均值中明显落后;截至凌晨2点50分,在已统计83%的选票中,杰克逊领先柯林斯8个百分点。
But Jackson argued that Collins would mean more of the status quo for Mainers, hammering her alignment with Trump and her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Ultimately, frustration with Republican-led Washington drove voters to the polls and led to stunning flips across the country – and Collins could not escape the sweep. She was notably trailing in DDHQ's polling averages heading into Election Day; Jackson led Collins by 8 points with 83 percent of the vote counted as of 2:50 a.m.
在1996年首次竞选该职位时,柯林斯曾承诺如果当选参议员,她将只担任两届。她的落败使她失去了获得第六任期的机会,而该任期本可让她成为缅因州历史上任职时间最长的参议员。众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)和参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默(民主党-纽约州)成为了当晚最大的赢家,因为他们的政党轻松地夺取了国会两院的控制权。
When she first ran for the office in 1996, Collins pledged she would only serve two terms if elected to the Senate. Her loss deprives her of a sixth term that would have made her the longest-serving senator in Maine history. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) came out as the night’s biggest winners as their party flipped both chambers of Congress – and handily so.
一年前,人们还认为民主党有胜算翻转众议院,然而该党翻转参议院的想法似乎不可想象。特朗普第二任期的头几个月对舒默来说也十分艰难,他在表示民主党将以政府资金问题威胁政府关门、随后又自行反悔时,激怒了党内成员。
A year ago, Democrats were seen as having a fighting chance to flip the House, yet the idea of the party flipping the Senate seemed unthinkable. The initial months of Trump’s second term were also rocky for Schumer, who angered members of his party when he said Democrats would threaten a shutdown over government funding only to later reverse himself.
伊利诺伊州的朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿和堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿等参议员候选人表示,他们不会投票支持舒默担任参议院民主党领袖。尽管舒默因干预多场竞争激烈的参议院初选而惹怒了党内同僚,但他在这几个州扶持的候选人最终均胜出,为该党赢得了多数席位。杰弗里斯将成为首位非洲裔众议院议长,且他将拥有足够大的多数优势,即便在表决中流失部分票数也能通过立法。这与议长迈克·约翰逊(来自路易斯安那州)及共和党人一直在艰难应对的极其微弱的多数优势形成了转变。
Senate candidates like Juliana Stratton in Illinois and Adam Hamilton in Kansas said they wouldn’t vote for Schumer as Senate Democratic leader. And while Schumer angered members of his party for weighing in on several competitive Senate primary contests, his recruits in several of those states ended up winning, delivering the party its majority. Jeffries will become the first Black House Speaker, and he’ll have a large enough majority that he’ll be able to lose votes on the floor and still pass legislation. It’s a shift from the very narrow majorities with which Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) and the GOP have struggled.
佐治亚州晚上7点投票结束后不到半小时,决策台总部(DDHQ)就相对较早地宣布了奥索夫胜选的结果,他在这个传统摇摆州取得了领先18个百分点的决定性胜利,为该党带来了一个早期的亮点。参议院共和党人曾一度将奥索夫的席位视为极佳的翻盘机会,并希望能招揽州长布赖恩·坎普(共和党籍)。坎普决定不参选,共和党初选遂演变成总统与坎普之间的代理人战争:坎普支持前橄榄球教练德里克·杜利,而特朗普政治圈子的成员则与众议员迈克·柯林斯合作。
Ossoff’s relatively early race call, which Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) made less than half an hour since the polls closed in Georgia at 7 p.m., and his decisive 18-point victory in the traditionally swingy state offered an early bright spot for the party. The Senate GOP once saw Ossoff’s seat as a prime pickup chance, and hoped to recruit Gov. Brian Kemp (R). Kemp decided not to run, and the GOP primary became a proxy war between the president and Kemp, with Kemp backing former football coach Derek Dooley while members of Trump’s political orbit worked with Rep. Mike Collins.
尽管柯林斯赢得了一场激烈的决胜初选后,共和党人试图展现统一战线,但争议却使柯林斯深陷泥潭,而奥索夫则一路领先、未再回头。
Republicans sought to show a unified front after Collins won a heated runoff primary, but controversies bogged Collins down and Ossoff never looked back.
奥索夫压倒性的胜利很可能会重新引发外界对他是否竞选白宫的猜测。这位佐治亚州民主党人曾誓言,如果连任,他将完成参议院的第二任期,尽管选举之夜的结果很可能会激起更多关于其政治前景的讨论。其他被传有2028年雄心或被视为潜在候选人的民主党人,在今晚看来也进展顺利。尽管选区重划对共和党人来说 largely(注:原文如此,但按规则需完整翻译)起到了适得其反的效果,但在加利福尼亚州,随着其所在政党重新划分并夺回了几个由共和党掌控的席位,加州州长加文·纽瑟姆(民主党籍)似乎注定将在该州大获全胜。
Ossoff’s dominant win is likely to reignite speculation over whether he will run for the White House. The Georgia Democrat vowed that he would finish a second term in the Senate if reelected, though the election night results are likely to encourage more chatter about his prospects. Other Democrats rumored to have 2028 aspirations or floated as possible candidates also appear on track to have a good night. While redistricting largely backfired for Republicans, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) looks poised to come out on top in the Golden State as his party redrew and flipped several Republican-held seats.
众议员纽约州民主党众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯也在当晚迎来了好结果,她的头号盟友之一、进步派候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州参议院选举中击败了共和党人迈克·罗杰斯。南方各州的民主党人实现了一些引人注目的爆冷胜局,给该党带来了希望,表明他们正在这个拥有不断增加的选举人票的地区开拓阵地。
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) also enjoyed a good night after one of her top candidates, progressive Abdul El-Sayed, won the Michigan Senate race against Republican Mike Rogers. Democrats in states across the South achieved some notable upsets, giving the party hope it is building inroads in an area with a growing number of electoral votes.
得克萨斯州民主党籍州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科击败了共和党籍得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿当选参议员,同时得克萨斯州州众议员吉娜·希诺霍萨击败了共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特。儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯在南卡罗来纳州爆出大冷门,击败了获特朗普支持的共和党籍参议员达琳·格雷厄姆;截至美东时间凌晨3点,民主党籍地区检察官斯科特·科洛姆目前处于领先,他与密西西比州共和党籍参议员辛德·海德-史密斯之间的票数差距仅略超2000票。
Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) defeated Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) for Senate while Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa defeated Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Pediatrician Annie Andrews pulled off a major upset in South Carolina by defeating Trump-backed Sen. Darline Graham (R), and just over 2,000 votes separate District Attorney Scott Colom (D), who is currently in the lead as of 3 a.m.
阿拉巴马州民主党籍众议员肖马里·菲格尔斯击败了阿拉巴马州共和党籍州众议员雷特·马克斯,其所在的选区在本轮选区重划后原本极度偏向共和党。民调在选举日前夕饱受质疑。但民调机构度过了不错的一夜,他们指出民主党将迎来大胜的调查结果显得分外准确。例如,《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院在周末公布的一组令人瞩目的民调显示,在距离选举仅剩几天之际,民主党参议员候选人在七个摇摆州——密歇根州、得克萨斯州、缅因州、俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州、阿拉斯加州和艾奥瓦州——保持领先。
ET, and Sen. Cinde Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), whose seat was redistricted to heavily favor Republicans this cycle, defeated Alabama state Rep. Rhett Marques (R). Polls took a lot of heat ahead of election day. But the pollsters had a good night, with their surveys pointing to a big Democratic wave looking spot-on. An eye-popping set of polls from the New York Times/Siena College over the weekend, for example, showed Democratic Senate hopefuls ahead in seven battleground states --- Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa --- with mere days to go until the election.
截至周三美东时间凌晨3点,民主党人已经在其中六个州获胜,仅剩阿拉斯加州参议院选举尚未宣布结果。《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院的民调此前还显示该州的选情正在收紧。根据内特·西尔韦尔的分析,在特朗普时代的历次大选中,民调在过去三次总统选举中明显高估了民主党人的支持率,专家们此前一直担心民主党人更有可能参与调查。
As of 3 am Eastern on Wednesday, Democrats had won in six, with just the Alaska Senate race still uncalled. The Times/Siena poll also had showed a tightening race in that state. Polls in the Trump era have notably overestimated Democratic support in the last three presidential elections, according to analysis from Nate Silver, and experts have been wary that Democrats are more likely to take part in surveys.
这加剧了人们在选举日的担忧,即在误差范围内的竞选可能会倒向共和党人——或者更糟的是,在民调机构重大失误的历史上再添浓重的一笔。
That fueled Election Day worries that races would break toward Republicans in margin-of-error races – or worse, add to the history books of major pollster misses.
不过,周二的数据证实了这一点,民主党人梦寐以求的蓝色浪潮变成了一场蓝色海啸。民主党人在周二凭借一系列创造历史的胜利,夺回了四个州的州长职位。阿克顿在俄亥俄州击败拉马斯瓦米胜出,成为大约15年来首位当选该职位的民主党人,也是七叶树州历史上首位女州长。在得克萨斯州,伊诺霍萨与塔拉里科一同成为数十年来首批赢得全州竞选的民主党人。
The numbers bore out on Tuesday, though, as Democrats' dreamed-of blue wave turned into a blue tsunami. Democrats flipped four governor's mansions on Tuesday with a burst of history-making wins. Acton emerged the victor against Ramaswamy in Ohio, becoming the first Democrat elected to the office in roughly 15 years and the first woman elected governor in Buckeye State history. In Texas, Hinojosa joined Talarico as the first Democrats to win statewide in decades.
她也将成为孤星州宣誓就职的首位拉丁裔州长,并且是孤星州历史上仅有的第二位女州长。在艾奥瓦州,民主党人罗布·桑德击败了共和党人扎克·拉恩,成为20年来首位民主党籍艾奥瓦州州长。而民主党人凯莎·兰斯·博托斯在佐治亚州击败共和党亿万富翁里克·杰克逊,使她成为该国历史上首位当选州长的黑人女性。截至周三美东时间凌晨3点,民主党人在阿拉斯加州州长竞选的争夺中也占据优势,该州结果尚未揭晓。
She'll also be the first Latina sworn in as governor in the Lone Star State, and just the second woman to serve that role in the Lone Star State. In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand defeated Republican Zach Lahn to become the first Democratic Iowa governor in 20 years. And Democrat Keisha Lace Bottoms's flip against Republican billionaire Rick Jackson in Georgia makes her the first Black woman elected governor in the country. As of 3 am Eastern on Wednesday, Democrats were also favored to flip the Alaska governor's office, which had yet to be called.
他们也有望守住堪萨斯州,而由共和党把持的内华达州则胜负难料。另一方面,共和党人没有将任何由民主党把持的州长职位纳入囊中。这些选举结果让民主党州长得以在传统红色州执政,这势必在特朗普第二任期结束前,戏剧性地重塑这些州的政治格局以及全美政治版图。
They were also on track to hold Kansas, while Republican-held Nevada was a toss up. Republicans, on the other hand, didn't flip any blue-held governor's offices into their column. The results leave Democratic governors to lead in traditionally red states, promising to dramatically reshape their states' politics and the national landscape through the end of Trump's second term.