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大西洋月刊

民主的未来The Future of Democracy

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油价、伊朗战争、数据中心、医疗保健:美国人已经就所有这些议题争论了数周。但在这些中期选举中,选票上关乎的东西比国会控制权更为根本。美国人也在投票决定,建国250年后,美国是否仍将保持为一个民主国家。

Gas prices, the war in Iran, data centers, health care: Americans have debated all of these subjects for weeks. But something more fundamental than control of Congress was on the ballot in these midterm elections. Americans were also voting to decide whether the United States, 250 years after its founding, would remain a democracy.

特朗普总统曾试图推翻2020年大选,这次他也竭力操纵选举。联邦政府前所未有地向各州索要选民名单,并在过程中输掉了如此多的法庭诉讼。选区划分操纵是陈规陋习,但此前从未由白宫直接指挥。这给州级共和党领导人施加了真实压力,迫使他们重新划分选区边界,在某些情况下,其蓄意目的是消除黑人国会议员的席位。曾几何时,联邦政府协助州政府官员保障选举安全。而今年,是各州不得不抵御华盛顿,以捍卫其宪法赋予的举办选举权利。

President Trump, who tried to overturn the 2020 election, did his best to manipulate this one too. Never before has the federal government demanded voter lists from states, and lost so many court cases in the process. Gerrymandering is an old tradition, but it has never before been directed from the White House. This put real pressure on state Republican leaders to redraw boundaries, in some cases with the deliberate aim of eliminating Black members of Congress. Once, the federal government helped state officials keep elections safe. This year it was the states that had to mount a defense against Washington to protect their constitutional right to run elections.

到目前为止,我们大多数人已认识到,特朗普对选举的攻击是一种模式的一部分。自他开启第二任期以来,总统紧紧遵循了一套最初由匈牙利、俄罗斯等地独裁领导人打造的剧本。他首先对公务员、大学、法律界和科学家发动了全面攻击。

By now, most of us recognize Trump’s assault on elections as part of a pattern. Since he started his second term, the president has closely followed a playbook originally built by autocratic leaders in places like Hungary and Russia. He began with a full-scale attack on civil servants, universities, the legal profession, and scientists.

他任命一名阴谋论者拆解美国的公共卫生体系,任命一名自恋的电视主持人掌管世界上最强大的军队。他利用监管机构向记者施压。他将移民与海关执法局(ICE)变成了一支联邦准军事力量。他任由埃隆·马斯克突然且无能地削减给世界穷人的粮食援助和医疗救助,导致数亿美元被浪费,并在过程中造成了无法估量的人员死亡。

He appointed a conspiracy theorist to dismantle America’s public-health system and a narcissistic television host to run the most powerful army in the world. He used regulatory institutions to put pressure on journalists. He turned ICE into a federal paramilitary force. He let Elon Musk cut food aid and medical care for the world’s poor so abruptly and so incompetently that he wasted hundreds of millions of dollars and killed untold numbers of people in the process.

白宫监管下,美国对外广播机构、网络防御体系和反间谍机构遭受攻击。总统利用职权为自己、家人及商业伙伴谋取私利。他削弱美国同盟关系,在伊朗挑起战争,并因外交无能及可能存在的贪婪,延长了俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。

The White House oversaw assaults on America’s foreign broadcasters, cyber defense, counterintelligence. The president used the power of his office to earn money for himself, his family, and his business friends. He undermined America’s alliances, started a war in Iran, and prolonged the Russian invasion of Ukraine through diplomatic incompetence and possibly greed.

在这段混乱与破坏的时期里,国会中的共和党多数派要么欢呼叫好,要么保持沉默。国会领袖本应维护立法机关制衡总统、掌控预算、调查腐败的权力,却任由特朗普公然且持续地践踏法律与规范。他们不仅放任总统征收非法关税、从而推高全体美国人的物价,还对总统及其随行人员在征收关税期间押注股市牟利视而不见。

Through this period of chaos and destruction, the Republican majority in Congress either cheered or remained silent. Instead of asserting the legislative branch’s right to check the president, control the budget, and investigate corruption, congressional leaders let Trump break laws and norms egregiously and continuously. They let the president not only impose illegal tariffs, and therefore raise prices for all Americans, but they also looked the other way when he and his entourage bet money on the stock market while doing so.

他们拒绝阻止他在伊朗的鲁莽战争,拒绝约束移民与海关执法局(ICE)——即便该局已导致美国人死亡,也拒绝追问为何马斯克被赋予监管其自身公司的机构的权力,以及为何在贫困美国人失去医疗福利之际,仍给最富有的美国人减税。

They refused to block his reckless war in Iran, they refused to restrain ICE even after it killed Americans, and they refused to ask why Musk was given power over agencies that regulate his companies, or why taxes on the wealthiest Americans were cut even as poor Americans lost their health-care benefits.

下一届国会有能力扭转这一轨迹。新当选的领导人不仅要调查总统最严重的滥权行为、帮助美国民众从其破坏性政策中恢复过来,还必须修复政治体制的健康。我们或许需要重新思考总统已削弱的那些机构的角色,或制定法律,防止利益冲突深重者主导美国外交政策。我们必须直面一个无法控制其模型的人工智能产业,以及因总统鲁莽政策而遭削弱的医疗体系。

The next Congress can change this trajectory. Newly elected leaders must not only investigate the president’s worst abuses of power and help Americans recover from his destructive policies, but also restore the health of the political system. We may need to rethink the role of institutions that the president has weakened, or write laws that stop people with deep conflicts of interest from making American foreign policy. We have to confront an AI industry that is unable to control its models, and a health-care system weakened by the president’s reckless policies.

首先,我们需要关注美国政治失衡的最深层根源:没有其他民主国家在竞选活动上花费数十亿美元,也没有其他国家给最富有的公民如此多的机会去试图左右选举结果。民主党现在拥有一个独特的机会来纠正这种失衡。要建立一个服务于美国民众需求、而非一小撮寡头利益的政府,需要两年以上的时间,但他们可以立即着手。

Above all we need to focus on the deepest source of imbalance in our politics: No other democracy spends billions of dollars on election campaigns, or gives so many opportunities for the wealthiest citizens to try to shape the result. The Democrats now have a unique opportunity to redress this imbalance. It will take more than two years to build a government that serves the needs of Americans, not a small class of oligarchs, but they can begin now.

当然,除非所有结果都经过认证、所有新任国会议员都宣誓就职,否则这场选举尚未结束。我们应该预料到,总统将像2020年那样,考虑多种不同方式来破坏这一结果。在未来几天里,请留意诉讼或无法解释的延误。

Of course this election isn’t over until all the results are certified and all of the new members of Congress are sworn in. And we should expect that the president, as in 2020, will be considering many different ways of undermining this result. Over the next few days, watch for lawsuits, or unexplained delays.

但美国人也可以从中得到鼓舞:尽管经历了一切,全国各地的人们今天仍然行使了他们的权利去投票。没有发生有意义的阻止投票的企图。许多地方的投票率相当可观。在过去18个月里,我听到许多人公开疑惑:遵守规则的普通公民,能否反击一位专制的总统,并塑造国家的未来。事实证明,他们可以。

But Americans can also be cheered by the fact that despite everything, people all over the country voted today, as is their right. There were no meaningful attempts to stop the vote. Turnout in many places was significant. Over the past 18 months, I’ve heard many people wonder out loud whether ordinary citizens, playing by the rules, could fight back against an autocratic president and shape their country’s future. And it turns out, they can.

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