字号·· | 护眼
纽约时报

特朗普遭受重挫,但这并未让他变得不那么危险Trump Has Been Thumped. That Doesn’t Make Him Any Less Dangerous.

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

关于2026年中期选举,有两个基本故事可以讲述。首先,显然,是特朗普总统和共和党在威权压制、经济管理不善以及一场失败的选择性战争之后的政治崩溃。这个故事解释了周二选举的结果:民主党在全国范围内取得全面胜利,彻底否定了总统对美国生活的愿景。除了国会,共和党还失去了州立法机构和州长官邸,在选票上下全面失去权力,这是自2010年以来对一个政党最为鲜明的否决。

There are two basic stories to tell about the 2026 midterm elections. The first, obviously, is the political collapse of President Trump and the Republican Party in the wake of authoritarian repression, economic mismanagement and a failed war of choice. That story explains the results of Tuesday’s elections, in which Democrats swept to victory across the country in a total repudiation of the president’s vision for American life. In addition to Congress, Republicans lost state legislatures and governor’s mansions, losing power up and down the ballot in the most stark rejection of a political party since 2010.

这些结果如此引人注目,以至于第二个故事可能会被搁置一旁——被认为与大局无关。但那将是一个错误,因为第二个故事最终是最重要的一个。

Those results are so striking that the second story might go by the wayside — dismissed as immaterial to the bigger picture. But that would be a mistake, because the second story is ultimately the most important one.

问题的核心在于,特朗普将联邦政府对准了美国民主,不懈努力挑战、颠覆和破坏国家的选举基础设施,这一切都是为了扰乱自由公正选举的进行,并在民众不满的情况下维持权力。

The core of the problem is that Trump turned the federal government against American democracy in a relentless effort to challenge, subvert and undermine the nation’s election infrastructure. All in an effort to disrupt the conduct of free and fair elections and hold on to power in the face of popular discontent.

特朗普一直拒绝接受自己可能合法输掉选举的观点。2016年,他坚称非公民的非法投票让希拉里·克林顿在普选中获得了胜选优势。2020年,他将失败归咎于欺诈,并对乔·拜登发动了长达数月的推翻选举的企图,最终导致1月6日对国会大厦的袭击。毫不奇怪,在他赢得的2024年选举后,并没有这样的欺诈或非法投票指控。但这恰恰证明了这一点。

Trump has always rejected the idea that he could legitimately lose an election. In 2016, he insisted that illegal voting by noncitizens had given Hillary Clinton her winning margin in the popular vote. In 2020, he blamed fraud for his defeat at the hands of Joe Biden and then started a monthslong attempt to overturn the election, culminating in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. There was, unsurprisingly no such complaint of fraud or illegal voting after the 2024 election, which he won. But that just proves the point.

选举系统的直接控制,与大规模驱逐、边境安全、关税以及对公民社会的攻击一样,是特朗普第二任期开始时的首要任务。去年3月,特朗普宣称对国会和各州拥有非凡权力,签署了一项行政令,声称要彻底改革——并掌控——联邦选举。该命令本应要求选民出示公民身份证明才能投票,取消数十个州使用的投票机认证,惩罚那些在选举日之后计算及时收到选票的州,将选民档案和登记名单同时开放给国土安全部和埃隆·马斯克的政府效率部,并将联邦拨款和奖项与各州是否与司法部合作起诉选举犯罪挂钩。

Direct control of the election system was, along with mass deportations, border security, tariffs and an attack on civil society, a top priority for Trump at the start of his second term. In March of last year, claiming extraordinary authority over Congress and the states, Trump issued an executive order purporting to overhaul — and seize control — of federal elections. His decree would have required proof of citizenship to to vote, decertified voting machines used in dozens of states, penalized states that count timely ballots received after Election Day, opened voter files and registration lists to both the Department of Homeland Security and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and conditioned federal grants and awards on whether states had worked with the Department of Justice to prosecute election crimes.

总统的这项命令从头到尾都是对行政权力的无法无天的行使,是对联邦法律和宪法的公然违反,宪法将选举管理权下放给各州,但规定“国会可随时通过法律制定或修改此类规定”。在一起诉讼之后,联邦法院禁止了该行政令,并在当年的一项最终裁决中,永久阻止了总统控制美国选举的企图。

The president’s order was, from top to bottom, a lawless exercise of executive authority and a blatant violation of both federal law and the Constitution, which delegates the power to run elections to the states, with the caveat that “Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations.”Following a lawsuit, a federal court enjoined the executive order and in a final decision issued later that year, the court permanently blocked the president’s attempt to take control of American elections.

但特朗普一向不乏执着,他继续寻找劫持投票系统的方法。他施压共和党人通过《SAVE法案》,该法案本可将他的行政命令写入法律。他推动司法部证实他的选举阴谋论。1月,联邦调查局突袭了佐治亚州富尔顿县的选举办公室,该办公室是特朗普选民欺诈指控的常见目标。司法部多次试图获取州选民档案的访问权,但最终每次都失败了。

But Trump is nothing if not persistent, and he continued to look for ways to commandeer the voting system. He pressured Republicans to pass the SAVE Act, which would have codified his executive order into law. He pushed the Department of Justice to validate his election conspiracies. In January, the F.B.I. raided the election office of Fulton County, Ga., a frequent target of Trump’s claims of voter fraud. The Department of Justice made repeated attempts to try to get access to state voter files, ultimately losing each time.

正如哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院在“拉丁美洲公民联盟等人诉总统办公室案”中所说:“简单来说,我们的宪法不允许总统单方面改变联邦选举程序。”尽管如此,特朗普仍未气馁。3月下旬,他发布了另一项行政命令,这次针对的是美国邮政服务,命令邮政服务确定谁可以邮寄投票,并拒绝向任何不被视为合格的人发放选票。他还命令国土安全部编制合格选民名单。

“Put simply,” as the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia put it in League of United Latin American Citizens et al. v. Executive Office of the President, “our Constitution does not allow the President to impose unilateral changes to federal election procedures.”And still, Trump was not deterred. In late March, he issued another executive order, this one aimed at the United States Postal Service, in which he ordered the postal service to determine who can vote by mail and deny ballots to anyone not deemed eligible. He also ordered the Department of Homeland Security to compile lists of eligible voters.

这项行政命令的最终目的是破坏邮寄投票——这常常是总统的眼中钉——并有效阻止数百万合格选民投票。为了迫使遵从,特朗普还命令司法部长调查并起诉向国土安全部认定为不合格的选民发放邮寄选票的州和地方选举官员。

The ultimate aim of this order was to undermine mail-in voting — a frequent bête noire of the president — and effectively block millions of eligible voters from casting their ballots. To try to compel compliance, Trump also ordered the attorney general to investigate and prosecute state and local election officials who issue mail ballots to voters deemed ineligible by D.H.S.

这项命令在法院审理期间,特朗普政府官员也试图左右天平,威胁州和地方选举官员,因为他们没有遵循总统的指令。7月,司法部向全美50个州和华盛顿特区发出信函,威胁如果选举官员统计非公民选民投出的选票,将对其提起刑事诉讼。在类似举措中,国土安全部长马克韦恩·穆林声称,有超过25万名非公民在四个州登记投票,这一说法基于一个用于筛查非公民选民的有缺陷的系统。独立团体以及各州本身的分析发现,非公民投票几乎不存在。

As this order made its way through the courts, Trump administration officials also tried to put their thumb on the scale, threatening state and local election officials for not following the president’s dictates. In July, the Justice Department sent letters to all 50 states and Washington D.C., threatening criminal prosecutions if election officials counted ballots cast by noncitizen voters. In a similar move, Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin alleged that over 250,000 noncitizens were registered to vote in four states, a claim that rested on a flawed system for seeking out noncitizen voters. Analysis by independent groups as well as the states themselves has found that noncitizen voting is practically nonexistent.

9月,最高法院阻止了总统利用邮政服务破坏邮寄投票的尝试。但特朗普仍继续推进。在一系列试图破坏中期选举的最后努力中,司法部试图利用阿拉斯加的选票堆叠问题大做文章,引用《纽约时报》的报道,称参议院民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉在其竞选团队努力招募一名独立候选人丹·沙利文时违法,该候选人与佩尔托拉的共和党对手同名(佩尔托拉否认这一指控)。司法部还试图迫使加利福尼亚州将涉嫌非公民选票与其他选票分开。在这两起案件中,法院均驳斥了政府越权的行为。

In September, the Supreme Court blocked the president’s attempt to use the postal service to undermine mail voting. But still Trump pushed forward. In a set of last-ditch efforts to undermine the midterms, the Justice Department has tried to make hay of ballot stacking in Alaska, using reporting from The Times to argue that the Democratic Senate nominee, Mary Peltola, broke the law when her campaign worked to recruit an independent candidate, Dan Sullivan, who shares a name with Peltola’s Republican opponent (an accusation that Peltola denies). It has also tried to force California to segregate suspected noncitizen ballots from the rest of the pool. In both cases, courts have smacked down the administration for overstepping its authority.

大多数投票的美国人度过了正常的选举日。但有些人,通常是共和党控制州内以黑人或西班牙裔为主的选区,面临着长期排队和投票地点有限的常见挑战。

Most Americans who voted had a normal Election Day. Some, often those in majority Black or Hispanic precincts in states controlled by Republicans, faced the usual challenge of long lines and limited places to cast a ballot.

但长期以来企图破坏选举、违背选民意愿让共和党继续执政的努力,最终落空。尽管仍有制造混乱和破坏的途径,但特朗普在选票上的惨败,使其获得的党内支持恐怕只能是象征性的,不太可能有更多。特朗普本人周二表示,他“绝对愿意”接受选举结果。

But the long effort to subvert the elections and keep the Republican Party in power, against the will of voters, fell flat. And while there are still avenues for chaos and disruption, the scale of Trump’s defeat at the ballot box makes it very unlikely that he’ll have anything more than token support from his party. For his part, Trump said on Tuesday that he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results of the elections.

这并非可以松一口气的理由。我们知道的是,如果总统认为自己可能会输,他就反对自由公正的选举。他反对选举问责的理念。他拒绝自治和民众主权的基本共和原则。如果他能不受阻碍地行事,他会让美国成为一个“波将金民主”。

That is no reason to breathe easy. What we know is that, if he thinks he might lose, the president is opposed to free and fair elections. He is opposed to the idea of electoral accountability. He rejects the fundamental republican principles of self-government and popular sovereignty. If he could act unimpeded, he would make the United States a Potemkin democracy.

这个选举周期可能已经结束,但作为对我们自我治理自由的威胁,特朗普依然挥之不去。

This election cycle may be over, but as a threat to our freedom to govern ourselves, Trump still looms.

贾梅尔·鲍伊于2019年成为《纽约时报》评论专栏作家。此前,他是《Slate》杂志的首席政治记者。他居住在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Jamelle Bouie became a New York Times Opinion columnist in 2019. Before that he was the chief political correspondent for Slate magazine. He is based in Charlottesville, Va.

阅读媒体原文 ↗