民主党在中期选举中大获全胜后，国防股遭遇抛售，但沃尔夫研究公司认为投资者有理由超越最初的抛售潮进行审视。
Defense stocks are taking a hit after the Democrats' sweeping midterm victory, but Wolfe Research sees a reason for investors to look beyond the initial selloff.
民主党在周二的中期选举中赢得了国会两院的控制权，给唐纳德·特朗普总统造成重大挫折，并引发担忧，即军费开支计划可能面临更严格的审查。“民主党横扫两院是国防股的一个利空消息，”沃尔夫研究分析师迈尔斯·沃尔顿在周三的一份研究报告中写道，回应这股“蓝色浪潮”对国防和航空航天板块的影响。尽管沃尔顿认为市场对国防股最初的本能性负面情绪“可能是短暂的”，并指出了一个历史先例：在由选举引发的抛售后，随着军费开支持续增加，国防承包商的股价实现了复苏。
Democrats won control of both chamber of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, dealing a major setback to President Donald Trump and raising concerns that military spending plans could face greater scrutiny. "A Democratic sweep is a headline negative for defense stocks," wrote Wolfe analyst Myles Walton in a Wednesday research note reacting to the blue wave's impact on defense and aerospace sectors. Although Walton believes the market's initial knee-jerk negative sentiment toward defense names should be "potentially short-lived," pointing to a historical precedent in which defense contractors recovered from an election-driven sell-off as military spending continued to increase.
民主党控制众议院和参议院导致国防股周三下跌。洛克希德·马丁股价下跌3.6%，L3哈里斯股价跌逾2%，RTX公司和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼均跌逾3%。LMT YTD mountain 洛克希德·马丁，年初至今跌幅反映了市场担忧：由民主党控制的国会将挑战特朗普政府的国防开支优先事项，给依赖联邦资金的承包商带来不确定性。洛克希德·马丁约70%的销售额来自美国政府。
The Democrat sweep of the House and Senate sent defense stocks falling Wednesday. Shares of Lockheed Martin fell 3.6%, L3 Harris stock dipped more than 2%, RTX Corporation and Northrop Grumman both fell more than 3%. LMT YTD mountain Lockheed Martin, YTD The losses reflect concerns that a Democratic-controlled congress would challenge the Trump administration's defense spending priorities, creating uncertainty for contractors that depend federal funding. Lockheed Martin gets about 70% of its sales from the U.S. government.
L3哈里斯也获得大部分营收来自美国政府。在2025财年，这家国防和航空航天公司源自向美国政府销售的营收占比为75%。据该公司称，这以主承包商身份实现，包括对外军事销售。RTX公司和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼也有相当大比例的销售额来自美国政府合同。
L3Harris also earns most of its revenue from the U.S. government. In fiscal 2025, The percentage of the defense and aerospace company's revenue derived from sales to the U.S. government was 75%. That came in the form of prime contractors, including foreign military sales, according to the company. RTX Corporation and Northrop Grumman also derive a significant number of sales from U.S. government contracts.
尽管如此，沃尔夫研究公司表示，它看到当前政治环境与2006年中期选举存在相似之处，当时民主党上一次从一位在任共和党总统手中夺取了两院控制权。
Still, Wolfe Research said it sees similarities between the current political environment and the 2006 midterm elections, when Democrats last took control of both chambers from a sitting Republican president.
国防股在大选后最初下跌约2%，随后随着军费预算持续上涨而回升。尽管国会领导层发生变化，民主党最终仍支持增加开支，以资助美国在伊拉克战争中的行动。这一先例表明，民主党占据多数并不一定意味着国防开支会降低，特别是在伊朗冲突和俄乌冲突持续的背景下。沃尔夫还认为，国防股估值“自伊朗战争开始以来，很可能已从市盈率角度触底”，并将其与2018年中期选举期间股票估值的反应进行了对比。
Defense stocks initially declined roughly 2% following that election before recovering as military budgets continued to rise. Despite the change in congressional leadership, Democrats ultimately supported increased spending to fund U.S. operations in the Iraq War. That precedent suggests a Democratic majority does not necessarily translate to lower defense spending, particularly with ongoing conflicts in Iran and Russia-Ukraine. Wolfe also believes defense stock valuations have "likely bottomed multiple-wise since the start of the Iran War," drawing a comparison to how stock valuations responded during the 2018 midterms.
但沃尔夫指出，更直接的考验是2027财年预算，这将在民主党于1月接管国会之前敲定。沃尔夫称，2027财年国防预算是“近期催化剂”，共和党可能会在跛脚鸭会议期间争相通过一项开支法案。鉴于国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯无法向国会推销该预算，沃尔夫认为，用一位能够通过预算的候选人取代赫格塞斯，将是“国防开支最看好的前进路径”。
But the more immediate test, Wolfe argued, is the 2027 budget before Democrats take control in January. Wolfe said the fiscal 2027 defense budget is the "near-term catalyst" with Republicans potentially racing to approve a spending package during its lame duck session. Given defense secretary Pete Hegseth's inability to sell the budget to Congress, Wolfe believes replacing Hegseth with a candidate capable of passing a budget would be the "most bullish path forward for defense spending."