
美国选民在全国范围内拒绝了唐纳德·特朗普和共和党的议程。民主党在中期选举中赢得参议院和众议院控制权后,美元大幅下跌,引发了对人工智能监管加强可能拖慢经济增长的担忧。
American voters rejected Donald Trump and the Republican party’s agenda across the country. The US dollar has fallen sharply after the Democrats won control of the Senate and the House in the midterm elections, sparking fears that greater regulation of AI could slow economic growth.
周三,美元跌至一个月低点,同时受到债券收益率下跌的压力,投资者转向美国国债,将其视为避避特朗普最后一任期内预计出现的政治僵局的避风港。
The dollar hit a one-month low on Wednesday while coming under pressure from falling bond yields, as investors moved into US treasuries, viewed as a safe haven from the political gridlock anticipated during the rest of Donald Trump’s final term in office.
衡量美元对六种货币篮子汇率的美元指数跌至一个月来的最低水平,英镑和欧元对美元上涨。美元也对日元和瑞士法郎下跌,这两种货币是交易员在不确定时期倾向于转向的货币。
The dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six currencies, slid to its lowest level in a month and the pound and the euro gained against the dollar. The US currency also slid against the yen and the Swiss franc, currencies that traders tend to turn to during times of uncertainty.
与此同时,10年期美国国债收益率下跌近五个基点,至4.915%。民主党的“蓝色浪潮”使该党在得克萨斯州、爱荷华州、北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州等传统的共和党堡垒赢得了参议院席位。
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by almost five basis points to 4.915%. Democrats’ “blue wave”led to the party securing Senate seats in traditional Republican strongholds such as Texas, Iowa, North Carolina and South Carolina.
交易平台IG的首席技术分析师阿克塞尔·鲁道夫表示:“损失的规模必然会引发对特朗普在未来两年推动其议程能力的质疑,市场已经做出反应。随着投资者重新评估政治前景,美元承压,而黄金和白银作为避险交易受益。”期货交易最初显示美国股市将大幅低开,科技股为主的纳斯达克预计将因对人工智能公司前景的担忧而下滑。然而,随后的指标显示,华尔街可能高开,因为特朗普的和解基调以及欧洲市场的上涨提振了投资者情绪。
Axel Rudolph, the chief technical analyst at the trading platform IG, said: “The scale of the losses will inevitably raise questions about Trump’s ability to push through his agenda over the next two years, and markets are already reacting. The dollar is under pressure as investors reassess the political outlook, while gold and silver are benefiting as safe haven plays.”Futures trading initially indicated US stock markets would open sharply lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq expected to slide on fears over the prospects for AI companies. However, indicators later suggested Wall Street could open higher as Trump’s conciliatory tone and rises on European markets cheered investors.
“今日一些个别股票名称正蒙受重大损失,”XTB英国研究主管凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯表示。“SpaceX盘前下跌5%,特斯拉下跌超过4%。埃隆·马斯克被大多数民主党人视为令人反感的人物。世界首富马斯克向中期选举注资4.46亿美元(3.31亿英镑),资助共和党倾向的政治行动委员会和团体。”
“Some individual names are nursing significant losses today,” said Kathleen Brooks, the research director UK at XTB. “SpaceX is down 5% in the premarket, and Tesla is lower by more than 4%. Elon Musk is considered an anathema to most Democrats Musk, the world’s richest person, pumped $446m (£331m) into the midterms funding Republican-aligned political action committees and groups.
布鲁克斯表示,投资者正在对预期做出反应,即民主党控制的国会可能意味着对人工智能公司的更严格审查,这也可能对马斯克两家公司之间潜在的合并产生怀疑。
Brooks said investors were reacting to expectations that a Democrat-controlled Congress could mean greater scrutiny for AI companies, which could also cast doubt on a potential merger between Musk’s two companies.
作为传统避险资产的黄金价格上涨2.2%,每盎司飙升超过4000美元。
The price of gold, a traditional safe haven asset, rose by 2.2%, soaring past $4,000 an ounce.
亚洲交易时段,人工智能相关股票大幅下跌,预期民主党将推动对该行业实施更严格的监管。
AI-related shares tumbled during Asian trading hours, on expectations that Democrats will want to bring in greater regulation of the sector.
“我认为担忧在于,人工智能基础设施的推进速度可能会放缓,在德克萨斯州可能会放缓得相当明显,因为他们开始消化自己在人工智能方面可能拥有的具体授权,”Moomoo ANZ首席市场策略师塔帕斯·斯特里克兰表示。
“I think the fear is that the pace of the AI infrastructure rollout could slow, potentially quite markedly in Texas, as they start to digest exactly what mandate they might have in terms of AI,” said Tapas Strickland, the chief market strategist at Moomoo ANZ.
Monex Group专家董事杰斯珀·科尔说:“人工智能的势头已经转为负面,无论共和党是否拥有多数席位。进入这次选举时,金融市场的起点,尤其是股票市场,对人工智能而言是不利的。”特朗普通过行政令进行治理的风格,促使一些分析人士质疑,民主党重新掌控国会是否会对美国政策制定带来多大变化。
Jesper Koll, an expert director at Monex Group, said: “The AI momentum has turned negative, with or without the Republicans having a majority. The starting point for financial markets into this election, particularly for the equity market, has been adverse on AI.”Trump’s style of governing through executive orders has prompted some analysts to question whether the Democrats regaining control of Congress will have much change on US policymaking.
“仍有许多领域,唐纳德·特朗普可以影响市场——贸易和关税、外交政策以及现有法规,”JP Morgan Asset Management市场策略师太辉表示。
“There’s still a number of areas where Donald Trump can influence the markets – trade and tariffs, foreign policy, and existing regulations,” said Tai Hui, a market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.