瑞士法郎和日元跳涨，早期美国大选结果显示民主党有望同时赢得众议院和参议院控制权，导致美元遭遇一个月来最糟糕的一天。
The Swiss franc and Japanese yen jumped as early US election results pointed to the Democrats winning both the House and the Senate, sending the dollar to its worst day in a month.
在亚洲时段交易中，法郎上涨近1%，日元上涨0.7%，涨幅居主要货币之首。彭博美元指数下跌最多达0.4%，为10月2日以来最大跌幅，而风险敏感型货币澳元表现落后于同类货币。
The franc rose almost 1% and the yen 0.7% in Asian trading, the biggest gains among major currencies. Bloomberg’s dollar index fell as much as 0.4%, the most since Oct. 2, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar lagged peers.
这种避险情绪升温，源于民主党有望横扫国会的前景日益增大，而本次选举主要由选民对高昂生活成本的不满主导，包括在美国和以色列发动针对伊朗的战争后燃油价格飙升。预测显示民主党将夺回众议院控制权，而Kalshi预测市场给出民主党同时赢得参议院的概率为99%。
The flight to safety comes amid growing prospect of a Democratic sweep of Congress in an election dominated by voter frustration over the high cost of living, including fuel prices that surged after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran. Democrats are projected to flip control of the House, while Kalshi is pricing in a 99% chance that the party will also win the Senate.
投资者认为，民主党大胜可能打击股市和美元，因为这预示着监管审查将收紧，特别是针对高增长科技和人工智能公司。与此同时，如果政治僵局限制进一步减税和政府支出，缓解对联邦借贷的担忧，美国国债有望受益。
Investors see a Democratic wave as a potential setback for stocks and the dollar given the prospect of tighter regulatory scrutiny, particularly of high-growth technology and artificial intelligence companies. Treasuries, meanwhile, stand to benefit if political gridlock limits further tax cuts and government spending, easing concerns about federal borrowing.
“美国美元的阿喀琉斯之踵正在暴露”，其命运与人工智能繁荣挂钩，新加坡东方汇理银行高级策略师David Forrester表示。“民主党蓝色浪潮若遏制数据中心建设并阻碍人工智能繁荣，将拖累美元。”
“The US dollar’s Achilles’ heel is being exposed” with its fortunes tied to the AI boom, said David Forrester, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Singapore. “A Democrat blue wave that stifles datacentre buildouts and hobbles the AI boom would weigh on the US dollar.
不过，美元承压可能不会持久。如果旨在避免全面战争重燃的美伊谈判失败，油价可能反弹，从而推高通胀预期，增加美联储进一步加息押注，给美元提供支撑。特朗普仍保留否决国会限制其政策议程努力的能力。
Still, the pressure on the dollar may not last. Oil prices could rebound if US-Iran talks aimed at avoiding a return to all-out war fail, potentially lifting inflation expectations, raising bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes and giving the dollar a boost. Trump also retains the ability to veto congressional efforts to constrain his policy agenda.
“即使民主党赢得国会两院的控制权，特朗普总统也很可能会否决任何收紧人工智能监管的努力，从与中国竞争的角度来看，推出此类监管将很困难，”SMBC日兴证券高级策略师丸山凛太郎说。“最终，美元疲软很可能会出现逆转。”
“Even if the Democrats win both houses of Congress, President Trump is likely to veto any efforts to tighten AI regulations, and introducing such regulations would be difficult from the perspective of competition with China,” said Rinto Maruyama, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Eventually, there will likely be a reversal of the dollar’s weakness.”