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民主党在得克萨斯州夺权,终结共和党数十年的主导地位Democrats seize power in Texas, ending decades of GOP dominance

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一切都变了。周二晚间,一场史无前例的“蓝色海啸”席卷德克萨斯州,摧毁了全国最大、最具影响力的红州,终结了美国任何政党在全州范围内最长的垄断局面。得益于全国选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统的愤怒,民主党候选人在各个层级的竞选中均告捷,赢得了数十年来从未具备竞争力的席位,且不顾对手投入的创纪录竞选资金。

Everything has changed. A blue tsunami of epic proportions swept through Texas Tuesday night, decimating the largest, most influential red state and ending the longest statewide shutout of any political party in the country. Democrats up and down the ticket, buoyed by national anger toward President Donald Trump, won seats they haven’t been viable contenders for in decades despite historic spending from their opponents.

作为德克萨斯州现代史上权力最大、资源最丰富的州长,格雷格·阿博特被吉娜·伊诺霍萨击败。检察长肯·帕克斯顿在过往选举中曾甩掉弹劾、起诉和婚外情丑闻,此次竞选联邦参议员却败给了詹姆斯·塔拉里科。铁腕统治德州参议院的副州长丹·帕特里克,败给了一位籍籍无名的州众议员。共和党失去了检察长职位,这是全美最具影响力的保守派法律职位之一。共和党重新绘制的国会选区地图未能为其带来任何席位增益——事实上,他们总体还减少了一个席位。

Gov. Greg Abbott, the most powerful and well-resourced governor in modern Texas history, was unseated by Gina Hinojosa. Attorney General Ken Paxton, who in past elections cast off impeachment, indictment and infidelities, fell to James Talarico in his bid for the U.S. Senate. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the iron-fisted ruler of the Texas Senate, went down to a little known state representative. Republicans lost the attorney general’s office, one of the most influential conservative legal positions in the country. The new congressional map Republicans drew yielded them no gains — in fact, they lost one seat overall.

截至周三凌晨,唯一的悬念只剩下民主党能否控制德克萨斯州众议院,以及将以何种优势控制。

The only question remaining in the wee hours of Wednesday morning was whether Democrats would take control of the Texas House, and by what margins.

随着洪水退去,德克萨斯州几十年来首个分裂政府随之诞生。自1990年代以来,德州经济已跃居世界第八大经济体,民主党必须学会如何治理这个早已今非昔比的州。共和党则将不得不在废墟中理清思路,寻找重返权力核心的新路径。

As the floodwaters recede, Texas’ first divided government in decades is left in its wake. Democrats will have to learn how to govern a state that has become the eighth largest economy in the world since they last held this much power in the 1990s. Texas Republicans will be left to sort through the wreckage and chart a new path back to power.

首先,双方都必须走出似乎笼罩着“孤星州”统治阶层的集体休克状态。

First, both sides will have to emerge from what seems to be a collective shell shock gripping the governing class of the Lone Star State.

对于全美共和党人来说,这是一个毁灭性的夜晚——对特朗普及其政策的尖锐否定。深红的得克萨斯州过去曾抵御住蓝色浪潮,这或许解释了共和党人为何愿意在本周期承担额外的包袱,比如让深陷丑闻的帕克斯顿竞选联邦参议员,以及让因种族主义社交媒体帖子而闻名的博·弗伦奇竞选铁路委员。在一场惨烈的初选之后,胜出者拒绝与党内较为温和的建制派修补关系,固守陈旧的文化战争套路,并因被指责引进数据中心和弗洛克摄像头而始终未能站稳脚跟。

It was a devastating night for Republicans nationwide — a sharp repudiation of Trump and his policies. Deep red Texas had proven impervious to blue waves in the past, which perhaps explains Republicans’ willingness to take on extra liabilities this cycle, like running scandal-plagued Paxton for U.S. Senate, and Bo French, known for racist social media posts, for railroad commissioner. After a bruising primary, the victors declined to rebuild bridges with the party’s more moderate, establishment types, dug in on tired culture war tropes and never found their footing after being blamed for welcoming in data centers and Flock cameras.

习惯了看着得州变蓝的炒作落空的民主党人,今年怀揣希望。塔拉里科在民调中领先帕克斯顿数月,带动州长提名人吉娜·伊诺霍萨和全票其他候选人逼近资金更充裕的共和党对手。他们在现代历史上首次在每个席位都派出了候选人,为一些极端情况下的反转做准备。

Democrats, used to falling short of the hype that Texas might turn blue, were hopeful this year. Talarico led Paxton in almost every poll for months, pulling gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa and the rest of the statewide ticket within striking distance of their better funded Republican opponents. They had someone running in every seat for the first time in modern history, preparing for some edge case flips.

但周二晚发生的事,双方都完全无法预料——自重建时期以来,该州从未见过如此规模的全州政治控制权彻底易手。根据选举前晚的预测,前温和派共和党州众议员、得克萨斯州西班牙裔政策基金会主席杰森·比亚巴建立了一个模型,显示塔拉里科将获胜,伊诺霍萨将接近胜利。随着夜色加深,他调整预测,对民主党更为乐观。但他绝想不到会出现如此彻底的溃败,让他的党彻底被边缘化。

But nothing could have prepared either side for what happened Tuesday night — a full flip of statewide political control on a scale unseen in this state since Reconstruction Based on pre-election night projections, Jason Villalba, a former moderate Republican state House member and president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, put together a model that showed Talarico winning and Hinojosa coming close. As the night went on, he shifted his projections to a better outlook for Democrats. But he never could have imagined the wipeout that so thoroughly sidelined his party.

“我自认为消息相当灵通、判断敏锐且有高人指点,但今天的结果让我以一种从未预料到的方式措手不及,我认为双方都是如此,”他说。“这是新的一天,”他说。“但明天会怎样?我毫无头绪。”“明确的否定”很难相信梅耶斯·米德尔顿会输。米德尔顿是一位富有的石油天然气大亨,也是来自加尔维斯顿的保守派州参议员。

“I consider myself pretty plugged in, pretty astute and advised, and today caught me off guard in a way that I never expected, and I think that’s true for both sides,” he said. “It’s a new day,” he said. “But what tomorrow holds? I have no idea.”“Clear repudiation”It was hard to believe Mayes Middleton was going to lose. Middleton, a wealthy oil and gas magnate and conservative state senator from Galveston, ran for attorney general vowing to continue the record of right-wing legal victories that has come to define the agency on the national stage.

他竞选总检察长,誓言延续该机构在全国舞台上所确立的右翼法律胜利纪录。他在初选中自掏腰包,花费近2000万美元将自己定义为“MAGA梅耶斯”,随后便基本保持沉默,鲜少在大选中露面。

He self-funded his primary, spending almost $20 million to define himself as “MAGA Mayes,” then sat back, and went largely silent during the general election.

与此同时,他的对手、州参议员内森·约翰逊勉强凑齐了足够的资金,投放了几则全州范围的广告,宣传他将专注于该机构的官僚职能。约翰逊还猛烈抨击米德尔顿对总统的忠诚,在一个2024年特朗普以14个百分点优势获胜的州,这是个冒险的举动。

Meanwhile, his opponent, state Sen. Nathan Johnson, cobbled together enough money to run a few statewide ads promoting his plans to focus on the agency’s bureaucratic functions. Johnson also hammered Middleton for his fealty to the president, a risky proposition in a state that voted for Trump by 14 percentage points in 2024.

但周二晚上,米德尔顿致电约翰逊认输,将这个最大红州总检察长办公室的掌舵权交给了对手阵营。这对依赖德克萨斯州提起高风险诉讼、挑战民主党政府、蓝州和私营企业的保守派法律运动来说,影响将是毁灭性的。

But on Tuesday night, Middleton called Johnson to concede, handing the reins of the largest red state attorney general’s office to the other team. The effects will be cataclysmic for the conservative legal movement that has come to rely on Texas to bring risky lawsuits challenging Democratic administrations, blue states and private corporations.

“从来没人想过他会接近落选。没人想过,也没人谈论过,”共和党顾问布伦丹·斯坦豪泽说。“他是个稳操胜券的候选人,这告诉我,问题比我们推出的候选人或他们进行的竞选要大得多。”几位共和党政治顾问用的词是“明确的否定”——这次选举明确否定了特朗普近期的政策。食品杂货和汽油的高昂成本对共和党品牌打击尤为严重。伊朗战争、移民执法,以及对数据中心的愤怒也没帮上忙。这些因素也导致共和党在南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州遭遇令人震惊的失利。

“No one ever thought he would be even close to losing. No one thought it. No one talked about it,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP consultant. “He was a rock solid candidate and that tells me this is about something bigger than the candidates we put up or the races they ran.”The election was a clear repudiation — that’s the phrase several GOP political consultants used — of Trump’s recent policies. The crushing cost of groceries and gas hit the Republican brand especially hard. The war in Iran, immigration enforcement, and outrage over data centers didn’t help. Those factors helped contribute to shocking losses for Republicans in South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, too.

“选民谈到了这一点,人们感到沮丧,”州参议员布莱恩·休斯(Bryan Hughes,共和党-米尼奥拉)周二晚在阿博特竞选团队气氛低落的观选派对上表示。但他称,这些是德克萨斯州领导人“无法控制的”问题。但他们确实可以控制自己与这些政策的代表人物保持多大程度的拥抱,比亚尔巴指出,过去十年里,德克萨斯州共和党已与全国“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动步调一致。

“Voters spoke about that and people are frustrated,” state Sen. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, said at the Abbott downtrodden watch party Tuesday night. But these are issues, he said, that Texas leaders “have no control over.”But they do have control over how closely they embrace the face of those policies, Villalba said, noting that the Texas GOP has fallen into lockstep with the national MAGA movement over the last decade.

作为一名在近年来感觉在自己的党内如同外乡人的温和派共和党人,比亚尔巴希望这次挫败能促使德克萨斯州共和党人重新考虑他们对特朗普的忠诚。

As a moderate Republican who has felt like a foreigner in his own party in recent years, Villalba is hopeful that this rebuke will cause Texas Republicans to reconsider their fealty to Trump.

“我不指望我们会回到乔治·W·布什式保守主义的时代,但我希望我们都能认同,彻底的种族主义和纯粹的民粹主义不是制胜模式,”他说。“如果你把权力让渡给单一个人,那么,我们看到了发生了什么。”斯泰因豪泽表示,德克萨斯州共和党人应当希望这次选举是由大量共和党人选择留在家中不投票,甚至跨党派投票,以拒绝特朗普所决定的。唯一的另一种可能是该州突然涌现出更多民主党选民,那将使这些胜利在未来更加持久。

“I don’t expect we’re going to go back to the days of George W. Bush-style conservatism, but I would hope that we can all agree that abject racism and unadulterated populism is not a winning model,” he said. “If you cede your authority to a single individual, well, we see what has happened.”Texas Republicans should hope that this election was decided by a lot of Republicans choosing to stay home, or even cross party lines, in rejection of Trump, Steinhauser said. The only other alternative would be that the state suddenly found a whole lot more Democratic voters, which would make these victories more durable in the future.

至少有一个人认为,德克萨斯州共和党对特朗普的忠诚不应为周二的结果负责。事实上,他指责德克萨斯州共和党人不够“让美国再次伟大”。

One guy, at least, believes the Texas GOP’s loyalty to Trump is not to blame for Tuesday’s results. In fact, he’s blaming Texas Republicans for not being MAGA enough.

“如果德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特在其政治生涯的最后六个月里没有变成‘仅有名无实的共和党人’(RINO),他就不会输掉选举,”特朗普周二晚在社交媒体上发帖称。“他回到了他原来的套路,结果不好看!”接下来会怎样 上一次民主党掌握这些州级职位中的大多数时,塔拉里科还在上幼儿园。过去三十年里,该党大多时间都在防守,试图对右翼立法进行减害,并与最不具党派色彩的共和党同事拼凑出令人不安的联盟。这一切现在都将改变。

“If Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, hadn’t become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn’t have lost,” Trump posted on social media Tuesday night. “He went back to his original formula, and it wasn’t pretty!”What comes next The last time Democrats held most of these statewide seats, Talarico was in kindergarten. The party has spent most of the last three decades playing defense, trying to do harm reduction on right-wing legislation and cobbling together uncomfortable coalitions with their least-partisan Republican colleagues. All that changes now.

作为州长,希诺霍萨将拥有行政行动权,有权召集特别立法会议,任命董事会、委员会成员及填补司法空缺,并可否决她不同意的立法。

As governor, Hinojosa will have the power of executive action, the ability to call special legislative sessions, appoint people to boards, commissions and judicial vacancies, and veto legislation she disagrees with.

副州长维基·古德温将主持参议院,这一角色此前由丹·帕特里克以铁腕手段掌控。但共和党预计将继续控制该议院多数席位,目前已有声音寻求限制她在关键职权上的权力,例如决定哪些立法提交议院全体会议表决。

Lt. Gov. Vikki Goodwin will oversee the Senate, a role Dan Patrick has wielded with an iron fist. But Republicans are expected to maintain a majority of that chamber, and already, there’s talk of finding ways to curb her authority on crucial roles like deciding what legislation to bring to the floor of the chamber.

作为总检察长,约翰逊可能决定扭转该州在有争议诉讼中的立场,或彻底撤诉——这些诉讼是帕克森让该州陷入其中的。他还可能联合其他蓝州——因为按某些衡量标准,德克萨斯州现在就是蓝州——共同起诉特朗普政府。起诉联邦政府当然是该机构的拿手好戏。

As attorney general, Johnson could decide to reverse the state’s position on, or drop entirely, controversial lawsuits that Paxton got the state embroiled in. He could also join other blue states — because that’s what Texas is now, by some metrics — in bringing lawsuits against the Trump administration. Suing the federal government is certainly something that the agency knows a lot about.

审计长莎拉·埃克哈特将掌握州财政大权,监管她和其他立法机构民主党议员投反对票未批准的 10 亿美元学校券计划。农业专员克莱顿·塔克将负责扶持农民的项目,并围绕数据中心和德克萨斯州农村地区制定政策。

Comptroller Sarah Eckhardt will hold the state’s purse strings, overseeing the $1 billion school voucher program she and the rest of the legislative Democrats voted against approving. Agriculture Commissioner Clayton Tucker will be responsible for programs designed to support farmers, and shape policy around data centers and rural Texas.

这些都是巨大且具有历史意义的胜利,将在一夜之间改变该州的政治版图。同时,德克萨斯州仍是一个保守州,拥有许多根深蒂固的共和党权力堡垒,仅靠一次选举无法将其铲除。许多候选人以温和承诺竞选;他们现在必须决定是兑现承诺,还是将这些结果视为对其政党整体的背书。

These are big, historic wins that will change the state’s political landscape overnight. And also, Texas still remains a conservative state, with many fossilized bastions of Republican power that will take more than one election to unearth. Many of these candidates ran on promises of moderation; they’ll now have to decide whether to honor that, or take these results as an endorsement of their party writ large.

至少希诺霍萨表明,她计划寻找途径与那个花费数千万美元阻止她当选的政党合作。

Hinojosa, at least, is indicating she plans to find ways to work with the party that spent tens of millions of dollars to keep her out of office.

“我们终结一个一党统治的时代,不是为了开启另一个,”她在 9 月的《德克萨斯论坛报》节上说道。

“We did not end one era of single party rule to usher in another,” she said at the Texas Tribune Festival in September.

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