Texas is far and away the biggest upset of the 2026 midterms. The resounding defeat of MAGA here also offers the Republican Party a chance for a hard reboot — if the GOP is brave enough to take it.

Texas is the largest red state in the nation. It hasn’t had national Democratic representation in three decades; it voted for President Donald Trump three times; and Trump held his midterm convention here just two months ago. The losing Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, was hand-selected by Trump over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary.

Democrat James Talarico beat him handily, 55% to 43%.

It’s hard to overstate this. For all Democrats’ long talk of turning Texas purple or blue, the last Democrat to come close was Beto O’Rourke in 2018, when he lost to Senator Ted Cruz. It’s the kind of state that, when driving from North Texas to Round Top like I did last week, you’ll see a billboard showing an evolutionary progression from a caveman to Jesus Christ to Donald Trump.

But there were too many Talarico yard signs to ignore; and not just in the city, but out in the country. I had too many conversations with moms, especially in the Dallas area, who were giddy to vote for him. And although 60% of Texas women voted for Talarico, it was Texas men (28 points) who swung even more Democratic than Texas women (24 points), relative to 2024.

There were too many bad Paxton corruption stories. Too many conservatives blanked Paxton, including former President George W. Bush, confirming many voters’ gut instinct that he just wasn’t fit for higher office. There were too many dirty campaign tricks.

And voters in Texas are just as fed up with high gas prices, corruption, and the war in Iran as voters anywhere else in America. According to the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, nearly 7 in 10 Texans felt the country is on the wrong track; in a democracy, that means the party in power is going to lose.

And then there was the money. Texan Elon Musk spent a historic sum on the midterms, nearly $250 million of which went right into Texas, according to the New York Times. But Texans are an independent bunch; we don’t want to be bought.

To me, the race was sealed when a conservative Christian Hispanic woman I know put a Talarico bumper sticker on her car. She’s been conservative for pro-life reasons, but then deportations came to her church. A quarter of the Texas electorate is Hispanic, and they moved more solidly left relative to 2024 than almost any other demographic — by a whopping 42 points. That trend also played out nationally.

Speaking of Hispanic representation, for the first time ever, Texas will have a Hispanic governor. Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s win over incumbent Governor Greg Abbott came as much more of a surprise than Talarico’s victory. Her victory was slightly smaller than Talarico’s, 52.9% to 45.6%, but it is arguably even more telling. That’s because Abbott is a long-time incumbent, a traditional conservative and was not plagued with Paxton’s baggage. He also consistently polled ahead of Hinojosa throughout the campaign until the very end.

I attribute Abbott’s defeat primarily to the anti-incumbent, anti-MAGA, anti-Trump energy, which affected races up and down the ballot. Data centers, I suspect, also played a role.

Given the unique dynamics of this cycle, it’s too soon to tell whether Texas’ blue swing is part of a broader realignment. Talarico is clearly a talented campaigner; if he proves to be a talented legislator, too, Democrats may hold that seat six years from now.

But my hope for Texas is bigger. Maybe it’s where the GOP can be reborn. The party has strayed far from conservatism and moderation, character and accountability. It bears little resemblance to any of the values I hold dear — values that a progressive party, by its nature, is unlikely to represent. Conservatives need a movement that’s humble, brave and forward-looking, not vindictive, corrupt or performative. We needed a Texas-sized reset — and we got one.